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Commentary Archive

May 2018

23   U.S. New Home Sales Ease While Prices Decline
23   U.S. Mortgage Loan Applications Fall As Interest Rates Rise
22   Philadelphia Fed Nonmanufacturing Business Activity Strengthens to Four-Year High
22   U.S. Energy Prices Continue to Rise
22   U.K. Industrial Survey Backs Down But Still Shows Firm Responses
21   FIBER: Industrial Commodity Prices Are Mixed
21   Japan's Trade Surplus Widens; Largest Surplus in 14 Months
18   U.S. Mortgage Loan Applications Decline
18   EMU Trade Flows Remain in Broad Slowdown As Surplus Expands
17   U.S. Leading Economic Indicators Post Another Firm Increase
17   Philadelphia Fed Factory Conditions Surge; Prices Paid Retreat
17   U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Remain Low
17   European Car Registrations Drop Sharply in April
16   U.S. Industrial Production Steadily Increases
16   U.S. Housing Starts and Building Permits Decline
16   EMU Inflation Bumps Up But Remains Well Below Target As Other Problems Boil Over
15   Empire State Manufacturing Index Improves
15   U.S. Inventories Are Flat in March But Positive Momentum Still Seems in Train
15   U.S. Home Builder Index Recovers
15   U.S. Retail Sales Rise Moderately
15   U.S. Gasoline & Crude Oil Prices Continue to Strengthen
15   EMU Growth Slows in Q1
14   FIBER: Industrial Commodity Prices Remain Strong
14   Bank of France Business Survey Sags in April
11   U.S. Import Prices Rebound; Export Prices Strengthen
11   Is Inflation the Mouse that Roared?
10   U.S. Government Budget Surplus Increases Y/Y
10   U.S. Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Remain at 50-Year Low
10   U.S. CPI Rebounds; Core Price Increase Moderates
10   Japan’s Economy Watchers Index Improves But Still Shows Sector Shrinkage
09   U.S. Wholesale Inventories & Sales Growth Slows
09   U.S. Producer Prices Rise Minimally
09   EMU Members Show IP Rebound Amid Weakening Trends
08   U.S. JOLTS: Job Openings Rate Improves; Hires Stabilize
08   U.S. Small Businesses Optimism Is Little Changed; Prices Ease
08   U.S. Gasoline Prices Unchanged, While Crude Oil Prices Continue Upward
08   Germany Logs Its Fifth Largest Trade Surplus Ever As Exports Recover
07   U.S. Consumer Credit Usage Slackens
07   German Orders Contract Again on Foreign Order Weakness
04   U.S. Payroll Growth Remains Subdued; Wage Growth & Jobless Rate Ease
04   The OECD and EMU Growth and Inflation Scene
03   U.S. ISM Nonmanufacturing Index Declines
03   U.S. Productivity Has Modest Increase; Unit Labor Costs Strengthen Moderately
03   U.S. Factory Orders Jump; Shipments Notch Another Record High
03   U.S. Trade Deficit Narrows Sharply
03   U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Edge Higher
03   EMU Inflation Remains Astonishingly Muted
02   FOMC Leaves Fed Funds Target Unchanged
02   U.S. Mortgage Loan Applications Decline as Interest Rates Rise
02   U.S. ADP Private Payroll Growth Slips
02   EMU Growth Slows; Globally Growth Slows
01   U.S. Light Vehicle Sales Falter
01   ISM Factory Sector Index Falls Further; Prices Strengthen
01   U.S. Construction Spending Slumped in March, Big Upward Revisions to January and February
01   U.S. Gasoline & Crude Oil Prices Continue Upward
01   China’s Manufacturing PMI Hovers, Showing Positive Growth

April 2018

30   Chicago PMI Stays on Lower Plane
30   Texas Factory Sector Index Slips
30   U.S. Pending Home Sales Edge Up in March
30   U.S. Personal Spending Improves; Income Growth Is Stable
30   EMU Money and Credit Vs. Money Growth Elsewhere
27   U.S. Employment Costs Strengthen in Q1
27   U.S. GDP Growth Moderates; Domestic Demand Weakens
27   EU Indexes for EMU Members
26   Kansas City Federal Reserve Factory Index Hits Record High
26   U.S. Durable Goods Orders Strengthen; Aircraft Orders Surge
26   U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Decline Sharply
26   German Confidence Flattens and Falters
25   U.S. Mortgage Loan Applications Are Little Changed; Rates Remain High
25   Japan Shows Very Moderate Growth As Trade War Clouds Gather
24   U.S. New Home Sales and Prices Strengthen
24   U.S. Consumer Confidence Unexpectedly Rose in April
24   U.S. FHFA House Price Index Continues to Strengthen
24   U.S. Energy Prices Rise Further
24   Italian Confidence Backtracks But Remains High-Valued As It Is for France and Germany
23   U.S. Existing Home Sales & Prices Rise Again
23   PMIs Stabilize or Creep Higher After Drop-Off
20   FIBER: Industrial Commodity Prices Strengthen Selectively
20   German PPI Accelerates
19   U.S. Leading Economic Indicators Signal Continued Expansion
19   U.S. Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Are Little Changed
19   Philadelphia Fed Factory Conditions Improve; Prices Jump
19   U.K. Retail Sales Fall
18   U.S. Mortgage Loan Applications Rebound; Interest Rates Steady
18   Japan’s Trade Surplus Returns Even As Trade Flows Slow
17   U.S. Gasoline and Crude Oil Prices Strengthen
17   U.S. Industrial Production Strengthens; Factory Output Ticks Higher
17   U.S. Housing Starts and Building Permits Recover
17   ZEW Expectations Take a Dive: From Fear to Eternity
16   Empire State Manufacturing Index Weakens
16   U.S. Business Inventories Continue to Accumulate; Sales Rebound
16   U.S. Home Builder Index Eases Again
16   U.S. Retail Sales Strengthen
16   French Sales Step Up; But for How Long
13   U.S. JOLTS: Job Openings, Hires and Layoffs Ease
13   EMU Trade Balance Surplus Expands Again
12   U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Decline
12   U.S. Import Prices Are Unchanged; Export Prices Rise
12   Euro Area IP Crashes and Burns for the Third Straight Month
11   U.S. Government Budget Deficit Increases
11   U.S. Mortgage Loan Applications Fall; Financing Rates Steady
11   U.S. CPI Slips; Core Prices Remain Firm
11   Bank of France Business Survey Sees Weaker Future
10   U.S. Gasoline Prices Ease; Crude Oil Declines
10   U.S. Producer Price Gains Accelerate
10   U.S. Wholesale Inventories Rise and Sales Rebound in February
10   U.S. Small Businesses Optimism Declines; Wages and Selling Prices Continue to Rise
10   French and Italian Output Sag...for How Much Longer?
09   FIBER: Industrial Commodity Prices Ease
09   German Trade Flows Contract As the German Surplus Shrinks
06   U.S. Consumer Credit Usage Continues to Weaken
06   U.S. Payroll Increase Weakens; Wage Gain Accelerates
06   German IP Drops Sharply- What Does It Mean
05   U.S. Trade Deficit Increases to Highest Since 2008
05   U.S. Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Rebound, but Still Near 45-Year Low
05   Global Composite PMIs Sag
04   U.S. Mortgage Loan Applications Fall; Interest Rates Remain Elevated
04   U.S. Factory Orders Rebound; Shipments Hit a Record High
04   U.S. ISM Nonmanufacturing Expansion Slows
04   U.S. ADP Private Payroll Growth Steadies
04   EMU Unemployment Rate Lowest Since 2008
03   U.S. Light Vehicle Sales Rebound
03   U.S. Energy Prices Move Higher
03   Global Manufacturing PMIs Perform; But What the Heck About Demand?
02   U.S. Construction Spending Is Little Changed for Second Month
02   ISM Factory Sector Index Backs Away from 2004 High
02   Asia Shows a Lot of Weakness; And Japan's Tankan Is Tankin’ As a Theme of Trade War Plays Out

March 2018

29   Chicago Purchasing Managers Index Declines Sharply
29   U.S. Personal Income Growth Outpaces Spending
29   U.S. Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Fall to New Low Since 1973
29   Japan's Retail Sales Show Some Life Year Over Year
28   U.S. Pending Home Sales Improve
28   U.S. GDP Growth Revised Upward; Corporate Profits Decline
28   German Consumer Confidence Holds the High Ground
27   U.S. Consumer Confidence Weakens
27   U.S. Gasoline & Crude Oil Prices Strengthen
27   EU Commission Indexes for EMU Fall Again; What Is the Message Here?
26   Texas Factory Sector Index Weakens
26   NABE 2019 Forecast; Moderate GDP Growth & Higher Price Inflation
26   Eurozone Economic Outlook from IFO, Istat and KOF
23   U.S. New Home Sales Decline While Prices Increase
23   U.S. Durable Goods Orders Rebound; Capital Goods Orders Strengthen
23   Japan’s CPI Pace Moves Higher As New Risks Emerge
22   Kansas City Federal Reserve Factory Index Holds Steady
22   U.S. Leading Economic Indicators Continue to Rise
22   U.S. FHFA House Price Index Strengthens in January
22   U.S. Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Increase Slightly
22   Composite PMIs Slip; How Far Will They Slide?
21   FOMC Lifts Rates as Real Growth & Inflation Firm
21   U.S. Existing Home Sales & Prices Strengthen
21   U.S. Current Account Deficit Increases
21   Spain’s Trade Trends and Performance Deteriorate
20   Philadelphia Fed Nonmanufacturing Business Activity Growth Eases
20   U.S. Gasoline Prices Increase
20   ZEW Expectations for Germany and Elsewhere Drop Sharply
19   FIBER: Industrial Commodity Price Gains Have Slowed
19   EMU Trade Surplus Shrinks A Bit As Trade Attacks Lurk
16   U.S. Housing Starts and Building Permits Weaken
16   U.S. Industrial Production Strengthens
16   EMU Inflation Continues to Stay Under Wraps While the ECB Waits for the World to Change
16   U.S. JOLTS: Job Openings, Hires and Layoffs Rise
15   European Car Registrations Fall - What Does It Mean?
15   U.S. Import and Export Prices Increase
15   Empire State Manufacturing Index Rebounds
15   U.S. Home Builder Index Slips
15   Philadelphia Fed Factory Conditions Declines; Prices Ease
15   U.S. Unemployment Insurance Claims Slip
14   U.S. Business Inventories Steadily Accumulate; Sales Ease
14   U.S. Retail Sales Decline for Third Consecutive Month
14   U.S. Producer Prices Continue Upward Trend
14   Cross Currents Swirl through European IP Trends
13   U.S. Gasoline Prices Steady; Crude Oil Costs Ease
13   U.S. Small Businesses Optimism Improves While Prices Increase
13   U.S. CPI Total & Core Increases Ease
13   Japan's Surveys Show Backtracking
12   U.S. Government Budget Deficit Deepens
12   Japan's Cabinet Office Survey
09   U.S. Wholesale Inventories Rise as Sales Decline
09   U.S. Payroll Increase Strengthens; Wage Growth Eases
09   German Output Slows; European Trends Are Mixed
08   U.S. Financial Accounts Show Moderation in Borrowing
08   U.S. Mortgage Loan Applications and Interest Rates Rise
08   U.S. Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Rise from 48-Year Low
08   German Orders Drop Sharply in January and Crimp Momentum
07   U.S. Consumer Credit Usage Slackens
07   U.S. Trade Deficit Increases Due to Decline in Exports
07   U.S. Productivity Steadies; Unit Labor Costs Rise
07   U.S. ADP Private Payroll Growth Remains Solid
07   French Trade Trends Deteriorate Along with So Much More
06   U.S. Factory Orders Reverse Course
06   U.S. Energy Prices Remain Firm
06   OECD Area Inflation Stays Down - Will Tariffs Push It Up?
05   U.S. ISM Nonmanufacturing Index Eases
05   Global Composite PMIs Hit the Pause Button As Tariffs Loom
02   FIBER: Industrial Commodity Price Index Touches New High
02   Euro Area PPI Year-on-Year Pace Drops to 1.5% from 2.2%
01   U.S. Light Vehicle Sales Ease Further
01   ISM Factory Sector Index Strengthens to 2004 High
01   U.S. Construction Spending Unchanged; Components Mixed
01   U.S. Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Reach 48-Year Low
01   U.S. Personal Spending Growth Eases as Savings Are Rebuilt
01   EMU Unemployment Rates

February 2018

28   Chicago Purchasing Managers Index Weakens Again
28   U.S. GDP Growth Is Slightly Lessened
28   U.S. Pending Home Sales Cool
28   Japan's IP Tanks, Housing Starts Plunge and Retail Sales Drop...What's Next?
27   U.S. Consumer Confidence Strengthens to 2000 High
27   U.S. FHFA House Price Index Increases
27   U.S. Durable Goods Orders Post Weak Start to Q1
27   U.S. Gasoline Prices Ease; Crude Oil Costs Rise
27   Global Monetary Center Action: Money Supply Growth Is Slowing
26   Texas Factory Sector Index Strengthens
26   U.S. New Home Sales & Prices Decline
26   U.K. CBI Service Sector Survey Stays Mixed But Is Reversed for Q1
23   Kansas City Federal Reserve Factory Index Advances
23   Inflation Trends in EMU...NOT Cooperating
22   U.S. Leading Economic Indicators Surge
22   U.S. Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Ease
22   German and French Sector Confidence Slip
21   U.S. Existing Home Sales Falter
21   U.S. Mortgage Loan Applications Fall Sharply
21   U.S. Energy Product Costs Weaken
21   Europe's Composite PMI Pullback
20   Philadelphia Fed Nonmanufacturing Business Activity Strengthens
20   ZEW Growth Assessments Begin to Stabilize
16   U.S. Import & Export Prices Strengthen Broadly
16   U.S. Housing Starts & Building Permits Increase
16   U.K. Retail Sales Slip Again
15   U.S. Home Builder Index Holds Steady
15   Empire State Manufacturing Index Slides; Individual Components Mixed
15   U.S. Producer Prices Trend Upward
15   Philadelphia Fed Factory Conditions Improve; Prices Jump
15   U.S. Industrial Production Eases; Factory Output Holds Steady
15   U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Increase, But Still Low
15   EMU Trade Balance Logs Larger Surplus
14   U.S. Business Inventories & Sales Rise Moderately
14   U.S. CPI Rises More than Expected in January
14   U.S. Retail Sales Decline; Nonauto Sales Hold Steady
14   As Growth Ramps Up, Can Inflation Be Far Behind? Yes, It Can...
13   U.S. Small Businesses Remain Optimistic and Increase Prices
13   U.S. Energy Product Prices Ease
13   Dutch Retail Sales Lose Traction As Economic Transition Looms
12   U.S. Government Budget Balance Deteriorates
12   FIBER: Industrial Commodity Prices Are Strengthening
12   Irish Confidence Hits 17-Year High
09   U.S. Wholesale Inventories and Sales Strengthen
09   U.K. Manufacturing Breadth and Strength Are Moving Together
08   U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Decline
08   French Survey Hits an Air Pocket
07   U.S. Consumer Credit Usage Cools
07   U.S. Mortgage Loan Applications Meander; Interest Rates Surge
07   German IP Backs Down But Still Logs a Solid Growth Profile
06   U.S. Gasoline & Crude Oil Prices Rise
06   U.S. Trade Deficit Increases As Import Growth Outstrips Exports
06   U.S. JOLTS: Job Openings and Layoffs Edge Down; Hiring Unchanged
06   German Foreign Orders Soar; Domestic Orders Bore
05   U.S. ISM Nonmanufacturing Index Surges
05   Composite PMIs Show Mostly Strength, But That's Not the Whole Story
02   U.S. Factory Orders Jump in December
02   U.S. Payroll Increase Is Moderate While Wage Growth Accelerates Y/Y
02   European PPI Accelerates on a Broad Country Front But Narrowly Across Sectors
01   U.S. Light Vehicle Sales Continue to Decline
01   U.S. Construction Spending Increases
01   ISM Factory Sector Index Slips but Remains Firm
01   U.S. Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Little Changed
01   U.S. Productivity Eases; Unit Labor Costs Increase
01   Asia Flounders; China Fails to Mount Momentum

January 2018

31   FOMC Leaves Rates Unchanged
31   U.S. Pending Home Sales Increase
31   Chicago Purchasing Managers Index Declines
31   U.S. Employment Costs Slow in Q4 But Continue Longer-term Rise
31   U.S. ADP Private Payroll Growth Remains Firm
31   EMU Unemployment Rates Continue to Fall
30   U.S. Consumer Confidence Firms
30   U.S. Gasoline & Crude Oil Prices Strengthen
30   EMU Members Show Consistent Strength...But Momentum Fades
29   Texas Factory Index Nears 2005 High
29   U.S. Personal Spending Outpaces Income
29   PPI Accelerates through Euro Area...Sort of
26   U.S. Durable Goods Orders Soared in December Propelled Again by Aircraft
26   U.S. GDP Growth Slips, Held Back by Foreign Trade & Inventories
26   EMU Money, Credit Growth and Trade
25   Kansas City Federal Reserve Factory Index Improves
25   U.S. New Home Sales Drop Back in December
25   U.S. Leading Economic Indicators Strengthen
25   U.S. Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Rise
25   German Confidence Rises...And So Does the Euro
24   U.S. Mortgage Loan Applications & Interest Rates Continue Upward
24   U.S. Existing Home Sales & Prices Rise in 2017
24   U.S. FHFA House Price Gains Continue to Diverge
24   EMU Manufacturing and Services Take Different Paths
23   U.S. State Unemployment Ranges Widely
23   U.S. Gasoline, Crude Oil & Natural Gas Prices Increase
23   Philadelphia Fed Nonmanufacturing Business Conditions Recover
23   ZEW Survey for EMU, U.K., U.S. and Japan: Inflation Fears Linger
22   Irish PPI Shows Mixed Trends
19   U.S. Mortgage Loan Applications Increase as Interest Rates Rise
19   German PPI Slows Its Year-on-Year Gain in the Face of Oil Price Strength
18   Philadelphia Fed Factory Conditions Index Weakens
18   U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Decline to 1973 Low
18   U.S. Housing Starts Decline Sharply
18   RICS Shows Weakening Trend for U.K. Housing
17   U.S. Home Builder Index Eases
17   U.S. Industrial Production Strengthens with Cold Weather; Factory Output Edges Higher
17   U.S. Gasoline & Crude Oil Prices Strengthen
17   Europe's Car Registrations Step Back at Yearend
16   Empire State Factory Sector Index Weakens
16   The Politicization of European Inflation Has Begun
12   U.S. Business Inventories Increase as Sales Strengthen
12   U.S. Retail Sales Were Solid in December with Upward Revisions to October and November
12   U.S. CPI Moderates Overall; Core Inflation Picks Up
12   Japan's Economy Watchers Index Gains As Future Index Deflates
11   U.S. Government Budget Deficit Narrows
11   U.S. Producer Pricing Power Recedes M/M, But Strengthens Y/Y
11   U.S. Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Rise Unexpectedly
11   EMU IP Gains on a Strong Capital Goods Sector
10   U.S. Mortgage Loan Applications Surge
10   U.S. Wholesale Inventories and Sales Rise
10   U.S. Import and Export Prices Are Little Changed
10   British Chamber of Commerce Survey for Q4 Is Mixed and Sour
09   U.S. Gasoline Prices Hold Steady; Crude Oil Prices Strengthen
09   U.S. JOLTS: Job Openings and Hiring Rates Erode
09   U.S. Small Business Optimism Strengthens in 2017
09   Euro Area Unemployment: Lowest Since 2009
08   U.S. Consumer Credit Usage Surges
08   FIBER: Industrial Commodity Prices Continue to Improve
08   EMU Retailing Bounces Back
05   U.S. ISM Nonmanufacturing Cools
05   U.S. Factory Orders Rebound; Shipments & Inventories Firm in November
05   U.S. November Trade Deficit Widens Even Though Exports Rebound
05   U.S. Payroll Increase Disappoints; Earnings Gain Picks Up & Jobless Rate Holds Steady
05   EMU Inflation Keeps a Low Profile
04   U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Rise
04   U.S. ADP Private Payroll Growth Strengthens Unexpectedly
04   PMI Round Up for EMU and Elsewhere Finds Solid to Strong Readings Predominate
03   U.S. Light Vehicle Sales Ease from Record High
03   U.S. Construction Spending Continues to Rise
03   ISM Factory Sector Index Strengthens
03   U.S. Energy Prices Strengthen
03   U.K. Industry Continues to Post Solid Results
02   FIBER: Industrial Commodity Prices Improve in 2017
02   China and Asia Lag on Manufacturing Front