- US: Advance Durable Goods, Advance Trade & Inventories (Mar)
- Brazil: PPI (Mar); Mexico: Compensation and Productivity (Feb)
- Canada: Payroll Employment, Earnings, & Hours (Feb)
- Spain: Advanced HICP & CPI, Construction Business Survey Press (Apr)
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Economy in Brief
U.S. Gasoline Prices Are Little-Changed; Crude Oil Falls
Regular gasoline prices of $2.45 per gallon last week (13.3% y/y)...
Japan's METI Indexes Show Ongoing Gains
The services sector is assessed by the METI indexes where it is named the 'tertiary sector.' That sector index rose to 104.1 in February...
U.S. New Home Sales & Prices Strengthen
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U.S. Consumer Confidence Backpedals
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index fell 3.7% during April (+27.0% y/y) to 120.3...
U.S. FHFA House Price Index Regains Strength
The FHFA U.S. house prices increased 0.8% during February (6.5% y/y)...
French Manufacturing and Service Sectors Weaken But Stay on Trend or Hold Recent Gains
The French manufacturing sector trend index is down to 1 in April from 3 in March...
by Sandy Batten January 6, 2016
The U.S. foreign trade deficit narrowed to $42.4 billion in November from a revised $44.6 billion in October (initially -$43.9 billion). The Action Economics Forecast Survey had anticipated a deficit of $44.2 billion. However, the advance report on the goods trade deficit, released on December 29, had pointed to a narrowing in line with that observed in today's release. In November, the goods deficit narrowed $2.3 billion to $61.3 billion while the services surplus narrowed marginally by $0.1 billion to $18.9 billion. Both exports and imports fell in November. Exports slipped 0.9% m/m (-7.1% y/y) with industrial supplies and consumer goods showing the most weakness. This was the fifth month in the past seven in which exports have declined, reflecting the impact of weak growth abroad as well as the stronger US dollar. Imports fell almost twice as much as exports, down 1.7% m/m for a 4.9% y/y decline. Consumer goods and capital goods led the November decline in imports.
The real trade deficit in goods (that is, measured in chained 2009 dollars) also narrowed in November to $59.6 billion from $61.0 billion in October. Given the data for October and November, the real goods trade deficit is set to widen in the fourth quarter from the third, indicating that the trade balance will be a further drag on overall GDP in the fourth quarter. At the present pace the trade balance is set to subtract about 0.5%-pt (at an annual rate) from 4Q GDP growth after having subtracted 0.3%-pt in 3Q.
Petroleum exports in current prices fell 3.5% m/m in November (-35.8% y/y). This was the fifth monthly decline in the past six months. Petroleum imports in current prices rebounded 5.1% m/m in November (-46.7% y/y), their first monthly increase in four months.
By country, the trade deficit in goods with China narrowed slightly to $31.3 billion from $33.0 billion. Exports were down 11.9% from a year earlier while imports slipped only 0.9% y/y. The deficit with Japan widened slightly to $5.7 billion in November from $5.6 billion with exports falling 2.1% y/y and imports edging up 0.2% y/y. The trade deficit with the European Union widened to $13.8 billion from $13.4 billion in October. Exports were essentially unchanged from a year ago while imports were up 5.4% y/y.
The international trade data can be found in Haver's USECON database. Detailed figures are available in the USINT database. The expectations figures are from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, which is carried in the AS1REPNA database
|Foreign Trade in Goods & Services (Current Dollars)||Nov||Oct||Sep||Y/Y||2014||2013||2012|
|U.S. Trade Deficit||$42.4 bil.||$44.6 bil.||$42.5 bil.||$40.0 bil.
|$508.3||$478.4 bil.||$536.8 bil.|
|Exports of Goods & Services (% Chg)||-0.9||-1.6||1.4||-0.8||2.8||2.8||4.3|
|Imports of Goods & Services (% Chg)||-1.7||-0.4||-1.6||-1.8||3.4||0.1||3.0|