Recent Updates

  • US: Retail E-Commerce Sales (Q2), Industrial Production (Jul)
  • US: Leading Indicators Composite Indexes (Jul)
  • US: Industrial Production Detail (Jul)
  • Canada: MSIO (Jun)
  • US: Philadelphia FRB Mfg Business Outlook Survey (Aug)
  • Brazil: Economic Activity (Jun), Household Employment Survey (Q2)
  • Philippines: GDP (Q2), Registered Foreign Portfolio Investment (Jul); Singapore: International Trade (Jul)
  • more updates...

Economy in Brief

U.S. ADP Reports Strongest Job Gain in 12 Months
by Tom Moeller  January 6, 2016

The ADP/Moody's National Employment Report indicated that nonfarm private sector payrolls rose 257,000 during December following a 211,000 November increase, revised from 217,000. The latest increase was firmer than expectations for a 198,000 rise in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. It was the largest gain since December 2014 and capped off twelve months of 2.0% growth. During the last ten years, there has been a 97% correlation between the change in the ADP figure and the change in nonfarm private sector payrolls as measured by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The ADP Research Institute survey is based on ADP's business payroll transaction system covering 411,000 companies and nearly 24 million employees. The data are processed by Moody's Analytics Inc., then calibrated and aligned with the BLS establishment survey data. The ADP data cover private sector employment, not government.

Large businesses led last month's job growth with a 97,000 rise (2.0% y/y), the largest gain in three months. Small business hiring strengthened 95,000 (2.2% y/y) which was the firmest increase since June. Amongst medium-sized employers, payrolls gained a fairly steady 65,000 (1.8% y/y).

The pace of hiring in the goods-producing sector of the economy picked up to 23,000 (0.6% y/y), the strongest rise since January. The strength was led by a 24,000 hiring increase (4.1% y/y) in the construction sector. Factory sector jobs rose a modest 2,000 (-0.1% y/y). Service industry hiring grew a strengthened 234,000 last month (2.3% y/y), the largest increase since November 2014. Payrolls in professional & business services jumped 66,000 (2.4% y/y) while employment in trade, transportation & utilities industries improved 38,000 (1.8% y/y). The number of financial activities jobs rose a steady 13,000 (2.0% y/y).

The ADP National Employment Report data are maintained in Haver's USECON database; historical figures date back to April 2001 for the total and industry breakdown and back to January 2005 for the business size breakout. The expectation figure is available in Haver's AS1REPNA database.

The minutes to the latest FOMC meeting can be found here.

ADP/Moody's National Employment Report Dec Nov Oct Dec Y/Y 2015 2014 2013
Nonfarm Private Payroll Employment (m/m chg, 000s) 257 211 173 2.0% 2.3% 2.3% 1.9%
 Small Payroll (1-49) 95 72 81 2.2 2.5 2.1 1.9
 Medium Payroll (50-499) 65 59 57 1.8 2.2 2.8 2.2
 Large Payroll (>500) 97 80 35 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.6
Goods-Producing 23 -2 -2 0.6 1.8 2.3 1.7
  Construction 24 5 15 4.1 4.8 4.6 3.5
  Manufacturing 2 4 -7 -0.1 0.8 1.2 0.9
Service-Producing 234 213 175 2.3 2.4 2.3 2.0
close
large image