- Korea: Housing Price Index (Apr)
- US: Consumer Sentiment (Apr-final), GDP (Q1 Adv), ECI (Q1)
- Consumer Sentiment Detail (Apr-final)
- US: Selected NIPA Tables (Q1-Adv), Summary key Source Data (Q1)
- Canada: GDP by Industry (Feb), Industrial Product Prices (Mar)
- *Taiwan National House Price Indexes Rebased to 2016=100.*
- Euro area: HICP (Apr-Flash), ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (Q2)
- Italy: CPI, HICP (Apr-Prelim)
- Brazil: Sao Paolo Capacity Utilization (Mar);Mexico: Debt (Mar);
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Employment Cost Index Has Stronger Gain
Lifted by outsized rises in several industries, the employment cost index for civilian workers rose 0.8% (2.4% y/y) during Q1'17...
Chicago Purchasing Managers Index Strengthens
The Chicago Purchasing Managers Business Barometer Index for April increased to 58.3 from 57.7 in March...
EMU Money and Credit Perk Up
There is some noticeable acceleration in EMU money and credit growth...
Durable Goods Orders Improvement Moderates
New orders for durable goods rose 0.7% (4.5% y/y) during March...
U.S. Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Increase
Initial unemployment claims for unemployment insurance rose to 257,000 during the week ended April 22...
U.S. Pending Home Sales Ease
The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported that pending home sales slipped 0.8% ((+0.8% y/y) during March...
by Tom Moeller January 6, 2016
The ADP/Moody's National Employment Report indicated that nonfarm private sector payrolls rose 257,000 during December following a 211,000 November increase, revised from 217,000. The latest increase was firmer than expectations for a 198,000 rise in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. It was the largest gain since December 2014 and capped off twelve months of 2.0% growth. During the last ten years, there has been a 97% correlation between the change in the ADP figure and the change in nonfarm private sector payrolls as measured by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
The ADP Research Institute survey is based on ADP's business payroll transaction system covering 411,000 companies and nearly 24 million employees. The data are processed by Moody's Analytics Inc., then calibrated and aligned with the BLS establishment survey data. The ADP data cover private sector employment, not government.
Large businesses led last month's job growth with a 97,000 rise (2.0% y/y), the largest gain in three months. Small business hiring strengthened 95,000 (2.2% y/y) which was the firmest increase since June. Amongst medium-sized employers, payrolls gained a fairly steady 65,000 (1.8% y/y).
The pace of hiring in the goods-producing sector of the economy picked up to 23,000 (0.6% y/y), the strongest rise since January. The strength was led by a 24,000 hiring increase (4.1% y/y) in the construction sector. Factory sector jobs rose a modest 2,000 (-0.1% y/y). Service industry hiring grew a strengthened 234,000 last month (2.3% y/y), the largest increase since November 2014. Payrolls in professional & business services jumped 66,000 (2.4% y/y) while employment in trade, transportation & utilities industries improved 38,000 (1.8% y/y). The number of financial activities jobs rose a steady 13,000 (2.0% y/y).
The ADP National Employment Report data are maintained in Haver's USECON database; historical figures date back to April 2001 for the total and industry breakdown and back to January 2005 for the business size breakout. The expectation figure is available in Haver's AS1REPNA database.
The minutes to the latest FOMC meeting can be found here.
|ADP/Moody's National Employment Report||Dec||Nov||Oct||Dec Y/Y||2015||2014||2013|
|Nonfarm Private Payroll Employment (m/m chg, 000s)||257||211||173||2.0%||2.3%||2.3%||1.9%|
|Small Payroll (1-49)||95||72||81||2.2||2.5||2.1||1.9|
|Medium Payroll (50-499)||65||59||57||1.8||2.2||2.8||2.2|
|Large Payroll (>500)||97||80||35||2.0||1.9||1.8||1.6|