- Weekly: **Unemployment Initial Claims Data have been revised**
- US: Housing Starts by State and Region (Feb)
- CPB World Trade Monitor (Jan)
- CPB World Trade Monitor (Jan)
- France: Registered Unemployed & Job Vacancies (Feb)
- US: Household Employment for States and Regions (Feb)
- US: Wholesale Trade Revisions, Advance Durable Goods (Feb)
- Manufacturing Survey - Markit US (Flash - Mar), Composite Survey - US (Flash - Mar), Services Survey - US (Flash - Mar)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
Correction to Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims
The Department of Labor has issued a correction to yesterday's annual revision to seasonally adjusted weekly unemployment claims...
EMU PMIs Are Off to the Races...Farewell Mediocrity?
The PMI rankings for the manufacturing and service sector PMIs in the EMU are suddenly off the chart...
U.S. New Home Sales Improve While Prices Decline
Sales of new single-family homes increased 6.1% (12.8% y/y) during February to 592,000 units (AR)...
Kansas City Federal Reserve Factory Index Strengthens; Expectations Surge
The Kansas City Fed reported that its index of regional manufacturing sector business activity increased to 20 during March...
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Rise
Initial claims for unemployment insurance increased to 258,000 (-3.0% y/y) during the week ended March 18...
U.K. Retail Looks Less Bulletproof
For the most part, the assessments embodied in the March survey from the UK's CBI are being taken as being upbeat...
by Robert Brusca January 13, 2016
EMU industrial production fell sharply in November, dropping for the third time in four months. Still, the year-over-year growth rate stands above 1% but the sequential path shows that IP growth is steadily decelerating in more recent periods. Three-month growth is at -0.4% and six-month growth is only at -0.1%, compared to +1.1% over 12 months.
Manufacturing output is lower in two of the last three months and it also is decelerating.
Consumer goods output is falling in two of the last three months and it is decelerating. Both consumer durable goods and nondurable goods output are lower in two of the last three months and both show output trends that are decelerating. Finally, capital goods output is lower in two of the last three months and its path shows deceleration as well. Intermediate goods output shows no declines in the last three months and its trends show growth.
Sector trends in the EMU show a great deal of weakness. There has been some talk of stabilizing conditions in Europe, but the manufacturing sector clearly is not yet on board for that.
Among the ten reporting EMU members in the table, half show output declines in November. This compares to four with declines in October and seven with declines in August. Seven of these EMU members still have output falling on balance over three months. That compares to three with declines over six months and over 12 months.
Clearly, there is no evidence of output stabilization here. These data draw from November and all the volatility of the New Year have yet to wash over the sector. It is never clear how much this sort of financial turbulence will affect the real economy especially a sector like industrial production. But we know that some of the financial disruptions stem from real world events like plunging commodity and oil prices. These sorts of events will cut back on investment in those sectors and will affect the growth of output. Moreover, two months into this fourth quarter, the quarter-to-date shows output declines in six of ten of these countries. Europe not only is not out of the woods, it is still under attack by the bears.