- Weekly: **Unemployment Initial Claims Data have been revised**
- US: Housing Starts by State and Region (Feb)
- CPB World Trade Monitor (Jan)
- CPB World Trade Monitor (Jan)
- France: Registered Unemployed & Job Vacancies (Feb)
- US: Household Employment for States and Regions (Feb)
- US: Wholesale Trade Revisions, Advance Durable Goods (Feb)
- Manufacturing Survey - Markit US (Flash - Mar), Composite Survey - US (Flash - Mar), Services Survey - US (Flash - Mar)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
Correction to Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims
The Department of Labor has issued a correction to yesterday's annual revision to seasonally adjusted weekly unemployment claims...
EMU PMIs Are Off to the Races...Farewell Mediocrity?
The PMI rankings for the manufacturing and service sector PMIs in the EMU are suddenly off the chart...
U.S. New Home Sales Improve While Prices Decline
Sales of new single-family homes increased 6.1% (12.8% y/y) during February to 592,000 units (AR)...
Kansas City Federal Reserve Factory Index Strengthens; Expectations Surge
The Kansas City Fed reported that its index of regional manufacturing sector business activity increased to 20 during March...
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Rise
Initial claims for unemployment insurance increased to 258,000 (-3.0% y/y) during the week ended March 18...
U.K. Retail Looks Less Bulletproof
For the most part, the assessments embodied in the March survey from the UK's CBI are being taken as being upbeat...
by Tom Moeller January 13, 2016
The U.S. Treasury Department reported a $14.4 billion budget deficit during December, reversing the $1.9 billion surplus twelve months earlier. A $3.5 billion deficit had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
Overall revenues increased 3.5% versus the first three months of FY'15, pulled lower by a 12.5% y/y drop in corporate income tax payments. The decline compares to 7.2% growth last year and reflects the developing pressure on corporate profitability. Individual income taxes grew a moderate 4.1% y/y. Social insurance contributions advanced 5.3% y/y while excise taxes nudged 0.6% higher y/y.
Government spending advanced 7.1% y/y so far in FY'16, the quickest growth since early-2015. Social security payments surged 16.4% y/y while outlays on health programs advanced 7.9% y/y with the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act. Medicare payments also grew a firm 4.6% y/y while veterans benefits & services payments advanced 11.2% y/y. Income security payments declined 1.5% y/y with the lower unemployment rate and outlays on education, training employment & social services programs fell 5.7% y/y. Interest payments grew 3.5% y/y following declines through most of last year.
Haver's data on Federal Government outlays and receipts are contained in USECON. Considerable detail is given in the separate GOVFIN database. The Action Economics Forecast Survey numbers are in the AS1REPNA database.
The Fed's latest Beige Book covering regional economic conditions can be found here.
|United States Government Finance||Dec. 2015||FY'15||FY'14||FY'13||FY'12|
|Budget Balance||--||-$14.4 bil.||-$438.9 bil.||-$483.4 bil.||-$680.2 bil.||-$1,089.2 bil.|
|As a percent of GDP||--||--||2.5||2.8||4.1||6.8|
|% of Total|
|Net Revenues (Fiscal YTD, Y/Y % Change)||100||3.5%||7.6%||8.9%||13.3%||6.4%|
|Individual Income Taxes||47||4.1||10.5||5.9||16.3||3.7|
|Corporate Income Taxes||11||-12.5||7.2||17.3||12.9||33.8|
|Social Insurance Taxes||33||5.3||4.1||8.0||12.1||3.2|
|Net Outlays (Fiscal YTD, Y/Y % Change)||100||7.1||5.2||1.4||-2.4||-1.7|
|Veterans Benefits & Services||4||11.2||6.8||7.7||11.5||-2.0|
|Education, Training, Employment & Social Services||3||-5.7||34.7||25.9||-21.9||-10.3|