- Korea: Housing Price Index (Apr)
- US: Consumer Sentiment (Apr-final), GDP (Q1 Adv), ECI (Q1)
- Consumer Sentiment Detail (Apr-final)
- US: Selected NIPA Tables (Q1-Adv), Summary key Source Data (Q1)
- Canada: GDP by Industry (Feb), Industrial Product Prices (Mar)
- *Taiwan National House Price Indexes Rebased to 2016=100.*
- Euro area: HICP (Apr-Flash), ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (Q2)
- Italy: CPI, HICP (Apr-Prelim)
- Brazil: Sao Paolo Capacity Utilization (Mar);Mexico: Debt (Mar);
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Employment Cost Index Has Stronger Gain
Lifted by outsized rises in several industries, the employment cost index for civilian workers rose 0.8% (2.4% y/y) during Q1'17...
Chicago Purchasing Managers Index Strengthens
The Chicago Purchasing Managers Business Barometer Index for April increased to 58.3 from 57.7 in March...
EMU Money and Credit Perk Up
There is some noticeable acceleration in EMU money and credit growth...
Durable Goods Orders Improvement Moderates
New orders for durable goods rose 0.7% (4.5% y/y) during March...
U.S. Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Increase
Initial unemployment claims for unemployment insurance rose to 257,000 during the week ended April 22...
U.S. Pending Home Sales Ease
The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported that pending home sales slipped 0.8% ((+0.8% y/y) during March...
by Tom Moeller January 13, 2016
The U.S. Treasury Department reported a $14.4 billion budget deficit during December, reversing the $1.9 billion surplus twelve months earlier. A $3.5 billion deficit had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
Overall revenues increased 3.5% versus the first three months of FY'15, pulled lower by a 12.5% y/y drop in corporate income tax payments. The decline compares to 7.2% growth last year and reflects the developing pressure on corporate profitability. Individual income taxes grew a moderate 4.1% y/y. Social insurance contributions advanced 5.3% y/y while excise taxes nudged 0.6% higher y/y.
Government spending advanced 7.1% y/y so far in FY'16, the quickest growth since early-2015. Social security payments surged 16.4% y/y while outlays on health programs advanced 7.9% y/y with the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act. Medicare payments also grew a firm 4.6% y/y while veterans benefits & services payments advanced 11.2% y/y. Income security payments declined 1.5% y/y with the lower unemployment rate and outlays on education, training employment & social services programs fell 5.7% y/y. Interest payments grew 3.5% y/y following declines through most of last year.
Haver's data on Federal Government outlays and receipts are contained in USECON. Considerable detail is given in the separate GOVFIN database. The Action Economics Forecast Survey numbers are in the AS1REPNA database.
The Fed's latest Beige Book covering regional economic conditions can be found here.
|United States Government Finance||Dec. 2015||FY'15||FY'14||FY'13||FY'12|
|Budget Balance||--||-$14.4 bil.||-$438.9 bil.||-$483.4 bil.||-$680.2 bil.||-$1,089.2 bil.|
|As a percent of GDP||--||--||2.5||2.8||4.1||6.8|
|% of Total|
|Net Revenues (Fiscal YTD, Y/Y % Change)||100||3.5%||7.6%||8.9%||13.3%||6.4%|
|Individual Income Taxes||47||4.1||10.5||5.9||16.3||3.7|
|Corporate Income Taxes||11||-12.5||7.2||17.3||12.9||33.8|
|Social Insurance Taxes||33||5.3||4.1||8.0||12.1||3.2|
|Net Outlays (Fiscal YTD, Y/Y % Change)||100||7.1||5.2||1.4||-2.4||-1.7|
|Veterans Benefits & Services||4||11.2||6.8||7.7||11.5||-2.0|
|Education, Training, Employment & Social Services||3||-5.7||34.7||25.9||-21.9||-10.3|