- US: IIP (Q4)
- Zambia: BOP (Q4); Israel: Credit Card Purchases (Feb); UAE: CPI (Feb); Saudi Arabia: GDP (Q4-Prelim)
- Hungary: Employment (Feb); Bulgaria: Business Survey (Mar); Kazakhstan: Consolidated Budget (Feb)
- Sweden: Consumer Confidence, Business Tendency Survey, Public Finance (Mar); Iceland: PPI (Feb)
- Spain: Mortgage Market (Jan), Order Book Forecast (Mar)
- Italy: ISTAT Business & Consumer Survey (Mar)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Energy Product Prices Remain Under Pressure
Regular gasoline prices held steady at $2.32 per gallon last week (12.1% y/y) for the third straight week...
German Federal Debt Levels Fall
German debt level fell outright in Q4 2016 as the ratio of federal debt-to-GDP also fell...
NABE 2018 Forecast: Modest Improvement in Economic Growth & Higher Inflation
The NABE expects 2.5% real U.S. economic growth in 2018 compared to 2.3% forecast for 2017...
Texas Factory Sector Activity Remains Strong
The Dallas Fed indicated in its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey that the General Business Activity Index eased during March...
EMU Money and Credit Growth Are Less Than Impressive Than Euro-PMIs
EMU nominal money supply growth is slightly higher over three months, but credit growth in the EMU is slower...
Durable Goods Orders Strengthened by Another Jump in Aircraft
New orders for durable goods rose 1.7% (5.0% y/y) during February...
by Tom Moeller January 15, 2016
Consumers reined in their spending for the holiday season. Purchases at retail stores and restaurants eased 0.1% during December (+2.8% y/y) following a 0.4% November rise, revised from 0.2%. For all of last year, sales advanced 2.1%, the weakest increase since a decline in 2009. The latest rise disappointed expectations for a 0.1% rise in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
An unchanged dollar value of motor vehicle sales compared to a 4.6% decline in unit vehicle sales. Retail sales elsewhere, however, were weak as they also posted a 0.1% dip. Lower gasoline prices also restrained the dollar value of spending with a 1.1% drop (-14.4% y/y), the sixth consecutive monthly fall. Overall retail sales excluding autos and gasoline as well as building materials and restaurants declined 0.3% (+2.8% y/y) after a 0.5% rise.
Sales in most discretionary spending categories weakened, led by a 1.0% decline in general merchandise store sales which also were unchanged y/y. It was the third monthly decline in a row. Clothing & accessory store sales fell 0.9% (+1.4% y/y), the fourth decline in five months. Electronics & accessory store sales eased 0.3% (-3.5% y/y), down for the third straight month.
Bucking the downward trend was a 0.4% gain in home furnishings sales (0.9% y/y) after falling for two months. Also moving higher by 0.9% (7.8% y/y) were sales of sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores, the fourth straight month of gain. Building materials & garden equipment sales rose 0.7% (4.8% y/y) while sales over the internet improved 0.3% (8.0% y/y). Eating out also compensated a bit for restraint elsewhere as restaurant sales gained 0.8% (7.5% y/y).
In the nondiscretionary spending categories, food & beverage store sales dipped 0.3% (+2.1% y/y), the third decline in four months. Health & personal care store sales gained 0.2% (3.5% y/y) for the second straight month.
The retail sales figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics figures are in the AS1REPNA database.
The U.S. Economic Outlook and Implications for Monetary Policy is the title of New York Fed Chairman William C. Dudley's speech and it can be found here.
|Retail Spending (%)||Dec||Nov||Oct||Dec Y/Y||2015||2014||2013|
|Total Retail Sales & Food Services||-0.1||0.4||0.0||2.8||2.1||3.9||3.7|
|Non-Auto Less Gasoline, Building Supplies & Food Services||-0.3||0.5||0.1||2.8||3.0||3.3||2.7|
|Motor Vehicle & Parts||0.0||0.5||-0.3||6.4||7.0||7.5||8.3|
|Retail Less Autos||-0.3||0.2||0.0||1.2||-0.2||2.6||2.6|
|Food Service & Drinking Places Sales||0.8||1.0||0.6||7.5||8.1||6.2||3.4|