- US: IIP (Q4)
- Zambia: BOP (Q4); Israel: Credit Card Purchases (Feb); UAE: CPI (Feb); Saudi Arabia: GDP (Q4-Prelim)
- Hungary: Employment (Feb); Bulgaria: Business Survey (Mar); Kazakhstan: Consolidated Budget (Feb)
- Sweden: Consumer Confidence, Business Tendency Survey, Public Finance (Mar); Iceland: PPI (Feb)
- Spain: Mortgage Market (Jan), Order Book Forecast (Mar)
- Italy: ISTAT Business & Consumer Survey (Mar)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Energy Product Prices Remain Under Pressure
Regular gasoline prices held steady at $2.32 per gallon last week (12.1% y/y) for the third straight week...
German Federal Debt Levels Fall
German debt level fell outright in Q4 2016 as the ratio of federal debt-to-GDP also fell...
NABE 2018 Forecast: Modest Improvement in Economic Growth & Higher Inflation
The NABE expects 2.5% real U.S. economic growth in 2018 compared to 2.3% forecast for 2017...
Texas Factory Sector Activity Remains Strong
The Dallas Fed indicated in its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey that the General Business Activity Index eased during March...
EMU Money and Credit Growth Are Less Than Impressive Than Euro-PMIs
EMU nominal money supply growth is slightly higher over three months, but credit growth in the EMU is slower...
Durable Goods Orders Strengthened by Another Jump in Aircraft
New orders for durable goods rose 1.7% (5.0% y/y) during February...
by Sandy Batten January 22, 2016
The Conference Board's Index of Leading Economic Indicators fell 0.2% m/m in December, following revised 0.5% m/m increases in November (initially +0.4%) and October (initially +0.6%). The Action Economics Forecast Survey had looked for a 0.1% m/m increase. Three-month growth in the index slowed to 3.3% (annual rate) in December from a downwardly revised 3.6% in November. This release contained annual benchmark revision, which align the indexes with revisions in the source data. Weaker ISM new orders and building permits were the major drags in December, while the most significant boost came from a steeper yield curve.
The coincident index edged up 0.1% m/m in December, after a 0.1% rise in November and a 0.2% increase in October. The three-month rate growth rate eased to 1.4% (annual rate) from 2.2% in November. Increases in nonfarm payrolls provided most of the December lift to this index with only industrial production exerting a slight drag.
The lagging index rose 0.2% m/m, compared with a 0.3% m/m rise in November and a 0.2% m/m gain in October. The three-month growth rate slowed markedly to 2.7% (annual rate) from 4.1% in November. Weaker services CPI was the largest subtracter in December while shorter unemployment duration and a higher prime rate were the major contributors.
The ratio of coincident to lagging indicators is widely viewed also a leading indicator of economic activity. As an economic expansion matures, the rise in coincident indicators often slows relative to lagging indicators. This ratio continued its recent general decline, edging down to 94.2 in December; with the revisions, it is now slightly below its trough in the 2008-09 recession.
The Conference Board figures are available in Haver's BCI database; the components are available there, and most are also in USECON. The forecast figures for the Consensus are in the AS1REPNA database. Visit the Conference Board's site for coverage of leading indicator series from around the world.
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