- Japan: First Ten Days Trade (Mar), International Trade, Foreign Banks Foreign Banks in Japan (Feb)
- New Zealand: Tourism Expenditure, International Reserves, RBNZ Analytical Accounts/Statistical Balance Sheet, Foreign Currency Assets, Liabilities, and Currency Flows (Feb); Australia: Flow of Funds (Q4), Job Vacancies (Q1)
- Korea: Building Permits (Feb); Philippines: LFS (Q3)
- US: IIP (Q4)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Mortgage Loan Applications Remain Little Changed; Variable Rate Apps Surge
The MBA total Mortgage Market Volume Index slipped 0.8% last week (-12.4% y/y)...
La Dolce Vita? Italian Confidence Bumps Higher
Italian business and consumer confidence moved higher in March...
U.S. Consumer Confidence Improves Significantly
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for March strengthened 8.2% (30.7% y/y) to 125.6...
U.S. Energy Product Prices Remain Under Pressure
Regular gasoline prices held steady at $2.32 per gallon last week (12.1% y/y) for the third straight week...
German Federal Debt Levels Fall
German debt level fell outright in Q4 2016 as the ratio of federal debt-to-GDP also fell...
NABE 2018 Forecast: Modest Improvement in Economic Growth & Higher Inflation
The NABE expects 2.5% real U.S. economic growth in 2018 compared to 2.3% forecast for 2017...
by Tom Moeller January 28, 2016
Initial claims for unemployment insurance declined to 278,000 (+5.3% y/y) during the week ended January 23 following 294,000 claims in the prior week, revised from 293,000. The four-week moving average now stands at 283,000, and has moved up slightly since late last year. Still, claims remained near the lowest level since 1973. Consensus expectations were for 280,000 applications in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. During the last ten years, there has been a 75% correlation between the level of initial claims and the m/m change in payroll employment.
In the week ending January 16, continuing claims for unemployment insurance rose to 2.268 million (-4.8% y/y) and reversed the prior week's decline. The four-week moving average rose to 2.246 million, the highest level since early-September.
The insured rate of unemployment nudged higher to 1.7%, about where it's been since March.
Insured rates of unemployment across states continued to vary. Near the low end of the range were Florida (0.66%), North Carolina (0.81%), South Dakota (0.88%), Virginia (1.02%), Tennessee (1.08%) and Indiana (1.27%). At the high end of the scale were Massachusetts (2.70%), Illinois (2.84%), Connecticut (3.02%), New Jersey (3.17%), Pennsylvania (3.21%) and Alaska (4.83%). The state data are not seasonally adjusted and cover the week ended January 9.
Data on weekly unemployment insurance are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database and they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics survey, carried in the AS1REPNA database.
|Unemployment Insurance (000s)||01/23/16||01/16/16||01/09/16||Y/Y %||2015||2014||2013|
|Insured Unemployment Rate (%)||--||1.7||1.6||