- Japan: **Japan Tokyo employment index rebased to 2015=100**
- Saudi Arabia: Non-Oil Foreign Trade (Feb); Kuwait: CPI (Mar); Tanzania: BOP, Trade, Depository Corporations Survey, Public Finance (Feb)
- Portugal: OMFIs Balance Sheet (Feb)
- Luxembourg: Employment and Unemployment (Mar)
- Kazakhstan: GDP by Income, Labor Productivity Index (Q4), Loans and Deposits, Monetary Aggregates, Banking System Surveys, Public Finance (Mar)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
Fresh Six-Year PMI Highs for Euro Area
The 'fresh six-year high' is a pleasant surprise that continues, but...
Philadelphia Fed Factory Conditions Soften
The Philadelphia Fed reported that its General Factory Sector Business Conditions Index fell to 22.0 during April...
U.S. Leading Economic Indicators Suggest Continued Expansion
The Conference Board's Composite Index of Leading Economic Indicators increased 0.4% (3.5% y/y) during March...
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Applications Increase
Initial unemployment claims for unemployment insurance rose to 244,000 during the week ended April 15 (-5.1% y/y)...
Japan's 'Trade Trends' Stabilize on an Unstable Foundation
Japan trade trends, broadly considered, seem to be stabilizing...
U.S. Mortgage Loan Applications Fall
The MBA total Mortgage Applications Volume Index declined 1.8% last week (-24.9% y/y)...
by Tom Moeller January 29, 2016
Overall economic growth eased during Q4 to 0.7% (AR, 1.8% y/y) versus 2.0% growth in Q3. It was the weakest gain since Q1 of last year. A 0.8% rise had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Slower growth was realized in most sectors while inventories and the foreign trade sector had negative effects. The GDP price index moved up 0.8% (1.1% y/y) after a 1.3% rise. A 0.9% gain had been expected and was the weakest increase since Q1.
Domestic final demand growth softened to 1.6% (2.5% y/y), the weakest increase since Q3'13. Personal consumption expenditures growth eased to 2.2% (2.6% y/y) as growth in spending on nondurable goods fell to 1.5% (2.6% y/y) from 4.2%. Spending on food & beverages fell 1.7% (+0.1% y/y), though it has been weak for two years. Gasoline spending eased 0.3% (+2.5% y/y) but apparel spending improved to 1.7%. The full-year rise of 3.3% was the strongest since 2011. Durable goods spending also slowed to 4.3% (5.2% y/y) from 6.6%. Motor vehicles purchases declined 4.9% (+0.9% y/y) following two quarters of firm increase. Home furnishings eased to 5.5% growth (6.0% y/y), but it has been strong for roughly six years. Recreational goods & vehicle purchases accelerated to 11.9% (9.2% y/y, the fastest growth in five quarters. Services spending was steady at 2.0% (2.2% y/y) as an accelerated 5.7% rise (1.5% y/y) in recreation offset a 1.4% decline (+0.5% y/y) in spending on housing & utilities. Health care spending was stable at 3.8% (3.7% y/y).
Business fixed investment declined at a 1.8% rate (+1.6% y/y), the first decline since Q3'12. A 5.2% falloff (-3.6% y/y) in structures spending was the fifth quarterly decline since early 2014. Equipment investment was off 2.5% (+2.4% y/y), but that was the first decline in a year. Computers & peripheral equipment purchases declined 21.8% (-1.3% y/y) and transportation equipment spending fell 14.0% (+2.3% y/y). These declines were countered by a 7.7% rise (5.8% y/y) in industrial equipment investment. Intellectual property product investment increased 1.6% (4.1% y/y), though growth has slowed sharply compared to the earlier four years. Residential spending increased a steady 8.2% (9.0% y/y).
Government purchases advanced 0.7% (1.3% y/y), the slowest growth since Q1. State & local spending eased 0.6% (+1.4% y/y) following two quarters of strength. Federal defense purchases jumped 3.6% (0.9% y/y) following several years of softness. Nondefense spending increased 1.4%, lifting y/y growth to 1.2%, its strongest in five years.
The foreign trade sector subtracted 0.5 percentage points from GDP growth following a 0.3% Q3 subtraction. These declines caused the full year contribution to GDP growth to be negative for a second year. Exports fell 2.5% (-0.8% y/y) while imports gained 1.1% (3.4% y/y). Inventory investment also was a drag on GDP growth. Its 0.4% negative contribution followed a 0.7 point drag in Q3.
The 0.8% increase (1.1% y/y) in the GDP price index was the weakest since Q1 as energy prices fell. The PCE price index was little changed (0.4% y/y), but excluding food & energy it rose 1.2% (1.4% y/y), the weakest gain since Q1. The business fixed investment price index edged 0.5% higher (0.1% y/y) and the government price index remained unchanged (0.1% y/y). The export price index declined 5.4% (-5.0% y/y) and the import price index fell 7.9% (-8.4% y/y).
The GDP figures can be found in Haver's USECON and USNA database. USNA contains virtually all of the Bureau of Economic Analysis' detail in the national accounts, including the integrated economic accounts and the recently added GDP data for U.S. Territories. The Action Economics consensus estimates can be found in AS1REPNA.
|Chained 2009 $ (%, AR)||Q4'15 (Advance Estimate)||Q3'15||Q2'15||Q4 Y/Y||2015||2014||2013|
|Gross Domestic Product||0.7||2.0||3.9||1.8||2.4||2.4||1.5|
|Foreign Trade Effect||-0.5||-0.3||0.2||-0.7||-0.6||-0.1||0.2|
|Domestic Final Sales||1.6||2.9||3.7||2.5||2.8||2.8||1.2|
|Personal Consumption Expenditures||2.2||3.0||3.6||2.6||3.1||2.7||1.7|
|Business Fixed Investment||-1.8||2.6||4.1||1.6||2.9||6.2||3.0|
|Chain-Type Price Index|
|Personal Consumption Expenditures||0.1||1.3||2.2||0.4||0.3||1.4||1.4|