- New Zealand: International Trade (Feb)
- Korea: Consumer Survey Index (Mar); Philippines: Public Finance (Jan)
- Weekly: **Initial Claims Data Revisions Completed**
- Euro area: Flash Consumer Confidence Indicator (Mar)
- US: New Residential Sales (Feb)
- Belgium: Business Survey (Mar)
- Uruguay: GDP (Q4)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
Kansas City Federal Reserve Factory Index Strengthens; Expectations Surge
The Kansas City Fed reported that its index of regional manufacturing sector business activity increased to 20 during March...
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Rise
Initial claims for unemployment insurance increased to 258,000 (-3.0% y/y) during the week ended March 18...
U.K. Retail Looks Less Bulletproof
For the most part, the assessments embodied in the March survey from the UK's CBI are being taken as being upbeat...
U.S. Existing Home Sales Fall to Five-Month Low; Inventory Remains Tight
Sales of existing single-family homes declined 3.7% (+5.4% y/y) to 5.480 million units (AR) during February...
U.S. FHFA House Price Index Momentum Diminishes
The FHFA U.S. house price index remained unchanged during January following a 0.4% December increase ...
Japan's Trade Trends Turn Sharply Higher
Japan has logged its largest current account surplus since April 2010...
by Tom Moeller January 29, 2016
The Chicago Purchasing Managers report indicated that its General Business Barometer surged to 55.6 in January from 42.9 in December, and more than made up the declines during the prior two months. The index level was the highest in twelve months. During the last ten years, there has been a 65% correlation between the index level and quarterly growth in real GDP. The ISM-Adjusted index increased to 52.4, a three-month high.
Most component increases were strong, led by the production series which rose to 62.5, the highest level in eleven months. New orders also surged to 58.8 and order backlogs jumped to 47.2. Also to the upside was employment which recovered most of December's decline. During the last ten years, there has been an 82% correlation between the index level and the m/m change in factory sector payrolls. Falling sharply was the inventory and supplier delivery indexes.
The prices paid component eased to 43.7. Not seasonally adjusted, seven percent of respondents reported higher prices while 19% reported them lower.
The MNI Chicago Report is produced by MNI/Deutsche Borse Group in partnership with ISM-Chicago. The survey covers a sample of over 200 purchasing managers in the Chicago area with a monthly response rate of about 50%. The ISM-Adjusted headline index is calculated by Haver Analytics using these data to construct a figure with the ISM methodology. The figures can be found in Haver's SURVEYS database. The Consensus expectations figure is available in AS1REPNA.
|Chicago Purchasing Managers Index (%, SA)||Jan||Dec||Nov||Jan '15||2015||2014||2013|
|ISM-Adjusted General Business Barometer||52.4||46.8||48.7||55.3||51.6||59.3||54.2|
|General Business Barometer||55.6||42.9||47.7||59.0||50.3||60.7||56.0|