- Japan: **Japan Tokyo employment index rebased to 2015=100**
- Saudi Arabia: Non-Oil Foreign Trade (Feb); Kuwait: CPI (Mar); Tanzania: BOP, Trade, Depository Corporations Survey, Public Finance (Feb)
- Portugal: OMFIs Balance Sheet (Feb)
- Luxembourg: Employment and Unemployment (Mar)
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Economy in Brief
Fresh Six-Year PMI Highs for Euro Area
The 'fresh six-year high' is a pleasant surprise that continues, but...
Philadelphia Fed Factory Conditions Soften
The Philadelphia Fed reported that its General Factory Sector Business Conditions Index fell to 22.0 during April...
U.S. Leading Economic Indicators Suggest Continued Expansion
The Conference Board's Composite Index of Leading Economic Indicators increased 0.4% (3.5% y/y) during March...
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Applications Increase
Initial unemployment claims for unemployment insurance rose to 244,000 during the week ended April 15 (-5.1% y/y)...
Japan's 'Trade Trends' Stabilize on an Unstable Foundation
Japan trade trends, broadly considered, seem to be stabilizing...
U.S. Mortgage Loan Applications Fall
The MBA total Mortgage Applications Volume Index declined 1.8% last week (-24.9% y/y)...
by Tom Moeller January 29, 2016
The Chicago Purchasing Managers report indicated that its General Business Barometer surged to 55.6 in January from 42.9 in December, and more than made up the declines during the prior two months. The index level was the highest in twelve months. During the last ten years, there has been a 65% correlation between the index level and quarterly growth in real GDP. The ISM-Adjusted index increased to 52.4, a three-month high.
Most component increases were strong, led by the production series which rose to 62.5, the highest level in eleven months. New orders also surged to 58.8 and order backlogs jumped to 47.2. Also to the upside was employment which recovered most of December's decline. During the last ten years, there has been an 82% correlation between the index level and the m/m change in factory sector payrolls. Falling sharply was the inventory and supplier delivery indexes.
The prices paid component eased to 43.7. Not seasonally adjusted, seven percent of respondents reported higher prices while 19% reported them lower.
The MNI Chicago Report is produced by MNI/Deutsche Borse Group in partnership with ISM-Chicago. The survey covers a sample of over 200 purchasing managers in the Chicago area with a monthly response rate of about 50%. The ISM-Adjusted headline index is calculated by Haver Analytics using these data to construct a figure with the ISM methodology. The figures can be found in Haver's SURVEYS database. The Consensus expectations figure is available in AS1REPNA.
|Chicago Purchasing Managers Index (%, SA)||Jan||Dec||Nov||Jan '15||2015||2014||2013|
|ISM-Adjusted General Business Barometer||52.4||46.8||48.7||55.3||51.6||59.3||54.2|
|General Business Barometer||55.6||42.9||47.7||59.0||50.3||60.7||56.0|