- New Zealand: International Trade (Feb)
- Korea: Consumer Survey Index (Mar); Philippines: Public Finance (Jan)
- Weekly: **Initial Claims Data Revisions Completed**
- Euro area: Flash Consumer Confidence Indicator (Mar)
- US: New Residential Sales (Feb)
- Belgium: Business Survey (Mar)
- Uruguay: GDP (Q4)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
Kansas City Federal Reserve Factory Index Strengthens; Expectations Surge
The Kansas City Fed reported that its index of regional manufacturing sector business activity increased to 20 during March...
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Rise
Initial claims for unemployment insurance increased to 258,000 (-3.0% y/y) during the week ended March 18...
U.K. Retail Looks Less Bulletproof
For the most part, the assessments embodied in the March survey from the UK's CBI are being taken as being upbeat...
U.S. Existing Home Sales Fall to Five-Month Low; Inventory Remains Tight
Sales of existing single-family homes declined 3.7% (+5.4% y/y) to 5.480 million units (AR) during February...
U.S. FHFA House Price Index Momentum Diminishes
The FHFA U.S. house price index remained unchanged during January following a 0.4% December increase ...
Japan's Trade Trends Turn Sharply Higher
Japan has logged its largest current account surplus since April 2010...
by Tom Moeller February 1, 2016
Personal consumption expenditures were little changed during December (3.2% y/y) following a revised 0.5% November increase, initially reported as 0.3%. A 0.1% rise had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. When adjusted for a slight dip in prices, spending rose 0.1% (2.6% y/y after a 0.4% increase. Notable caution was exhibited when it came to product spending. Durable goods purchases fell 0.9% (+3.5% y/y) following a 1.5% jump. Motor vehicle purchases were reduced 3.2% (+0.2% y/y), reversing all of the November surge. Home furnishing & appliance buying remained unchanged (3.6% y/y) after two months of 0.2% increase. Spending on recreational goods & vehicles edged up 0.1% (6.4% y/y) following six months of strong increase. In the nondurable goods sector, clothing purchases declined 0.7% (+0.8% y/y), off for the third month in the last four. Services spending picked up some of the slack with a second straight 0.4% rise (4.1% y/y). A 1.9% jump (4.7% y/y) in recreation services spending paced the increase. That was followed by a 1.0% gain (6.2% y/y) in hotels & restaurants. Lower energy prices afforded this strength as housing & utilities spending fell 0.2% (+2.9% y/y).
Cautious spending accompanied a moderate 0.3% rise (4.2% y/y) in personal income which followed an unrevised 0.3% gain. A 0.2% rise had been expected. Wage & salary earnings rose 0.2% (4.5% y/y) following a 0.5% rise. Rental income improved 0.5% (6.7% y/y), the strongest gain in six months. Transfer receipts jumped 0.7% (5.4% y/y), driven by a 1.4% rise (4.7% y/y) in social security payments. Medicare receipts improved 0.5% (4.6% y/y) for a third straight month. Jobless insurance benefits advanced 0.9% but they were off 8.5% y/y with the firmer job market. Proprietors earnings surged 1.0% (2.7% y/y) following a 0.1% dip. Dividend earnings fell minimally (+3.8% y/y) while interest earnings fell 0.7% (+1.5% y/y) for the third straight month.
Disposable personal income increased 0.3% (3.7% y/y) after a 0.2% gain. Adjusted for price inflation, take-home pay rose 0.4% (3.1% y/y) following three months of lesser increase.
The personal savings rate improved to 5.5% from 5.3%, earlier reported as 5.5%. The rate remained nearly the highest since 2012. Personal saving increased 15.3% during the last twelve months. During all of 2015, the personal savings rate averaged 5.2%, the highest level in three years.
The chain price index eased 0.1% (+0.6% y/y) after five months of little change. The index change was held back by a 0.7% fall (-2.5% y/y) in nondurable goods prices as energy costs declined 2.6% (-13.6% y/y), the fourth sharp decline in five months. Prices have fallen 24.8% since June 2004. Food prices fell 0.4% (-0.3% y/y) after a 0.2% decline. Excluding food & energy, prices remained unchanged (+1.4% y/y). Durable goods prices eased 0.1% (-1.4% y/y) while services prices improved 0.1% (1.9% y/y) after a 0.3% rise.
The personal income & consumption figures are available in Haver's USECON database with detail in the USNA database. The Action Economics figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
|Personal Income & Outlays (%)||Dec||Nov||Oct||Dec Y/Y||2015||2014||2013|
|Wages & Salaries||0.2||0.5||0.6||4.5||4.8||5.1||2.7|
|Disposable Personal Income||0.3||0.2||0.3||3.7||3.8||4.2||-0.1|
|Personal Consumption Expenditures||-0.0||0.5||0.0||3.2||3.4||4.2||3.1|
|Personal Saving Rate||5.5||5.3||5.5||5.0
|PCE Chain Price Index||-0.1||0.1||0.1||0.6||0.3||1.4||1.4|
|Less Food & Energy||0.0||0.2||0.0||1.4||1.3||1.5||1.5|
|Real Personal Consumption Expenditures||0.1||0.4||-0.0||2.6||3.1||2.7||1.7|