- US: Advance Durable Goods, Advance Trade & Inventories (Mar)
- Brazil: PPI (Mar); Mexico: Compensation and Productivity (Feb)
- Canada: Payroll Employment, Earnings, & Hours (Feb)
- Spain: Advanced HICP & CPI, Construction Business Survey Press (Apr)
- Belgium: CPI (Apr)
- Germany: GfK Consumer Climate Survey, State CPI: Bavaria, Saxony, Berlin, Hesse, North Rhine-Westphalia, Brandenburg (Apr)
- Building Permits (Feb)
- UK: Motor Vehicle Production (Mar)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Gasoline Prices Are Little-Changed; Crude Oil Falls
Regular gasoline prices of $2.45 per gallon last week (13.3% y/y)...
Japan's METI Indexes Show Ongoing Gains
The services sector is assessed by the METI indexes where it is named the 'tertiary sector.' That sector index rose to 104.1 in February...
U.S. New Home Sales & Prices Strengthen
Sales of new single-family homes increased 5.8% (15.6% y/y) during March to 621,000...
U.S. Consumer Confidence Backpedals
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index fell 3.7% during April (+27.0% y/y) to 120.3...
U.S. FHFA House Price Index Regains Strength
The FHFA U.S. house prices increased 0.8% during February (6.5% y/y)...
French Manufacturing and Service Sectors Weaken But Stay on Trend or Hold Recent Gains
The French manufacturing sector trend index is down to 1 in April from 3 in March...
by Tom Moeller February 1, 2016
Activity in the factory sector continued to contract in January for the fourth consecutive month. The ISM Composite Index of factory sector activity of 48.2 compared to 48.0 in December, revised from 48.2. The reading roughly equaled expectations for 48.0 in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The data from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) are diffusion indexes where a reading below 50 indicates decline.
Weakness in last month's composite index centered on another decline in the employment index. It fell to 45.9, and suggested the third month in the last four when payrolls fell. During the last ten years, there has been an 88% correlation between the index and the m/m change in factory sector employment. The inventory index held at 43.5, which indicated decumulation at nearly the fastest rate of the economic expansion. Improvement in the other activity indexes was evident. The new orders series rose to 51.5, suggesting a rise in orders for the first time in three months. the production also edged higher to a roughly neutral 50.2, about where it's been for three months. The supplier delivery index of 50.0 suggested that delivery speeds held roughly steady for the eighth straight month.
Lessened activity translated into a stable rate of price decline. The prices paid index of 34.7 was little changed m/m and reflected lower prices for the eighth straight month. Five percent (NSA) of industries reported higher prices while 38% reported lower. That figure was improved, however, from the price deflation realized by 15% of industries as recently as June.
The export order index declined to 47.0, its weakest level in four months. Orders backlogs suggested decline, as the index did all of last year.
The figures from the Institute for Supply Management can be found in Haver's USECON database. The expectations number is in Haver's AS1REPNA database.
Recent Monetary Policy is the title of today's speech by Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer and it can be found here.
|ISM Mfg (SA)||Jan||Dec||Nov||Jan '15||2015||2014||2013|
|Prices Paid Index (NSA)||33.5||33.5||35.5||35.0||39.8||55.6||53.8|