- Sweden: Consumer Confidence, Business Tendency Survey, Public Finance (Mar)
- Spain: Mortgage Market (Jan), Order Book Forecast (Mar)
- Italy: ISTAT Business & Consumer Survey Press Release (Mar)
- Germany: Business Registrations & Deregistrations (Dec), Import & Export Prices (Feb), IAB Labor Market Barometer (Mar)
- Vietnam: GDP (Q1), CPI, IP, International Trade, Passenger & Cargo Traffic Statistics, Manufacturing Sales and Inventories, International Visitor Arrivals (Mar); Korea: Economic Sentiment
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Energy Product Prices Remain Under Pressure
Regular gasoline prices held steady at $2.32 per gallon last week (12.1% y/y) for the third straight week...
German Federal Debt Levels Fall
German debt level fell outright in Q4 2016 as the ratio of federal debt-to-GDP also fell...
NABE 2018 Forecast: Modest Improvement in Economic Growth & Higher Inflation
The NABE expects 2.5% real U.S. economic growth in 2018 compared to 2.3% forecast for 2017...
Texas Factory Sector Activity Remains Strong
The Dallas Fed indicated in its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey that the General Business Activity Index eased during March...
EMU Money and Credit Growth Are Less Than Impressive Than Euro-PMIs
EMU nominal money supply growth is slightly higher over three months, but credit growth in the EMU is slower...
Durable Goods Orders Strengthened by Another Jump in Aircraft
New orders for durable goods rose 1.7% (5.0% y/y) during February...
by Tom Moeller February 5, 2016
Consumer credit outstanding increased $21.3 billion during December following an unrevised $14.0 billion November gain. For all of last year, consumer credit balances grew 6.9% to $3.55 trillion, the same growth as in 2014. Action Economics Forecast Survey participants looked for a $15.8 billion December increase. During the last ten years, there has been a 46% correlation between the y/y growth in consumer credit and y/y growth in personal consumption expenditures.
Nonrevolving credit borrowing grew by $15.4 billion, a 7.6% y/y increase. For all of last year, these balances totaled $2.61 trillion. Federal government loans (36% of that total) increased 12.5% y/y. Finance company balances (24% of the total) edged 0.3% higher. Borrowing at depository institutions (25% of the total) increased 7.4% y/y, and borrowing at credit unions (11% of the total) advanced 14.2% y/y. Nonprofit & educational institution loans (2% of the total) declined 12.0% y/y, and nonfinancial business loans (1% of the total) remained unchanged y/y.
Revolving consumer credit in December grew $5.8 billion, up 5.1% y/y. For 2015, these balances totaled $0.94 trillion. Credit card balances at depository institutions (84% of this total) increased 6.9% y/y. Finance company holdings (6% of the total) fell 4.4% y/y, while borrowing from credit unions (5% of the total) advanced 5.7% y/y. Nonfinancial business credit (2% of the total) fell 3.3% y/y, and securitized credit card balances (3% of the total) declined 14.7% y/y.
Student loans outstanding rose 6.8% y/y to $1.32 trillion. Motor vehicle loans increased 8.5% y/y to $1.04 trillion.
These Federal Reserve Board figures are break-adjusted and calculated by Haver Analytics. There is a break in the credit outstanding data from November 2010 to December 2010 due to the Fed's benchmarking process. Benchmark estimates are based on the Census of Finance Companies (CFC) and the Survey of Finance Companies (SFC) conducted in 2010 and 2011, respectively.
The consumer credit data are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics figures are contained in the AS1REPNA database.
Labor Market Strength Supports U.S. Outlook from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas can be found here.
|Consumer Credit Outstanding (M/M Chg, SA)||Dec||Nov||Oct||Y/Y||2015||2014||2013|
|Total||$21.3 bil.||$14.0 bil.||$15.1 bil.||6.9%||6.9%||7.0%||6.0%|