- US: IIP (Q4)
- Zambia: BOP (Q4); Israel: Credit Card Purchases (Feb); UAE: CPI (Feb); Saudi Arabia: GDP (Q4-Prelim)
- Hungary: Employment (Feb); Bulgaria: Business Survey (Mar); Kazakhstan: Consolidated Budget (Feb)
- Sweden: Consumer Confidence, Business Tendency Survey, Public Finance (Mar); Iceland: PPI (Feb)
- Spain: Mortgage Market (Jan), Order Book Forecast (Mar)
- Italy: ISTAT Business & Consumer Survey (Mar)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Energy Product Prices Remain Under Pressure
Regular gasoline prices held steady at $2.32 per gallon last week (12.1% y/y) for the third straight week...
German Federal Debt Levels Fall
German debt level fell outright in Q4 2016 as the ratio of federal debt-to-GDP also fell...
NABE 2018 Forecast: Modest Improvement in Economic Growth & Higher Inflation
The NABE expects 2.5% real U.S. economic growth in 2018 compared to 2.3% forecast for 2017...
Texas Factory Sector Activity Remains Strong
The Dallas Fed indicated in its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey that the General Business Activity Index eased during March...
EMU Money and Credit Growth Are Less Than Impressive Than Euro-PMIs
EMU nominal money supply growth is slightly higher over three months, but credit growth in the EMU is slower...
Durable Goods Orders Strengthened by Another Jump in Aircraft
New orders for durable goods rose 1.7% (5.0% y/y) during February...
by Tom Moeller February 10, 2016
The U.S. Treasury Department reported a $55.2 billion budget surplus during January versus a $17.5 billion deficit twelve months earlier. Calendar quirks contributed to the improvement. A $16.0 billion surplus had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. During the first four months of FY 2016, the budget deficit totaled $160.4 billion versus last year's $194.2 billion deficit.
Overall revenues increased 3.2% versus the first four months of FY'16. Individual income taxes grew a moderate 3.5% y/y and social insurance contributions advanced 4.9% y/y. Weaker business profitability lowered corporate receipts by 11.9% y/y while excise taxes fell 1.7%.
Government spending eased 0.1% y/y so far in FY'16. National defense spending declined 2.1% y/y and income security payments fell 11.8% y/y with the lower unemployment rate. Medicare payments were off 6.8% y/y. Outlays on health programs advanced 6.0% y/y with the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act. but veterans benefits & services payments declined 4.4% y/y. Social Security payments grew 4.0% and spending on education, training employment & social services programs surged 9.5% y/y. Interest payments grew 8.2% y/y.
Haver's data on Federal Government outlays and receipts are contained in USECON. Considerable detail is given in the separate GOVFIN database. The Action Economics Forecast Survey numbers are in the AS1REPNA database.
|United States Government Finance||January 2016||FY'15||FY'14||FY'13||FY'12|
|Budget Balance||--||$55.2 bil.||-$438.9 bil.||-$483.4 bil.||-$680.2 bil.||-$1,089.2 bil.|
|As a percent of GDP||--||--||2.5||2.8||4.1||6.8|
|% of Total|
|Net Revenues (Fiscal YTD, Y/Y % Change)||100||3.2%||7.6%||8.9%||13.3%||6.4%|
|Individual Income Taxes||47||3.5||10.5||5.9||16.3||3.7|
|Corporate Income Taxes||11||-11.9||7.2||17.3||12.9||33.8|
|Social Insurance Taxes||33||4.9||4.1||8.0||12.1||3.2|
|Net Outlays (Fiscal YTD, Y/Y % Change)||100||-0.1||5.2||1.4||-2.4||-1.7|
|Veterans Benefits & Services||4||-4.4||6.8||7.7||11.5||-2.0|
|Education, Training, Employment & Social Services||3||9.5||34.7||25.9||-21.9||-10.3|