- Weekly: **Unemployment Initial Claims Data have been revised**
- US: Housing Starts by State and Region (Feb)
- CPB World Trade Monitor (Jan)
- CPB World Trade Monitor (Jan)
- France: Registered Unemployed & Job Vacancies (Feb)
- US: Household Employment for States and Regions (Feb)
- US: Wholesale Trade Revisions, Advance Durable Goods (Feb)
- Manufacturing Survey - Markit US (Flash - Mar), Composite Survey - US (Flash - Mar), Services Survey - US (Flash - Mar)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
Correction to Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims
The Department of Labor has issued a correction to yesterday's annual revision to seasonally adjusted weekly unemployment claims...
EMU PMIs Are Off to the Races...Farewell Mediocrity?
The PMI rankings for the manufacturing and service sector PMIs in the EMU are suddenly off the chart...
U.S. New Home Sales Improve While Prices Decline
Sales of new single-family homes increased 6.1% (12.8% y/y) during February to 592,000 units (AR)...
Kansas City Federal Reserve Factory Index Strengthens; Expectations Surge
The Kansas City Fed reported that its index of regional manufacturing sector business activity increased to 20 during March...
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Rise
Initial claims for unemployment insurance increased to 258,000 (-3.0% y/y) during the week ended March 18...
U.K. Retail Looks Less Bulletproof
For the most part, the assessments embodied in the March survey from the UK's CBI are being taken as being upbeat...
by Tom Moeller February 16, 2016
The Empire State Factory Index of General Business Conditions continues to indicate declines in manufacturing sector activity. The New York index nudged up to -16.64 during February, but remained near the lowest level since April 2009. Expectations had been for -10.0 in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The data are reported by the Federal Reserve of New York and reflect business conditions in New York, northern New Jersey and southern Connecticut.
Based on these figures, Haver Analytics calculates a seasonally adjusted index that is compatible to the ISM series. The adjusted figure rebounded to 47.4 from a revised 43.0. It indicated m/m improvement, but remained below break-even for the eighth straight month. A falling level of activity is indicated by a figure below 50. Since inception in 2001, the business conditions index has had a 65% correlation with the change in real GDP.
The degree of improvement in the component series varied. New orders and shipments gained slightly but remained near the recent lows. Unfilled orders, inventories & delivery times each increased sharply. Employment also increased sharply to the highest level in six months. During the last ten years, there has been a 69% correlation between the index level and the change in nonfarm payrolls, although the correlation has broken down during the last year.
The prices paid index declined sharply to a four-month low. Sixteen percent (NSA) of respondents reported paying higher prices while 13 percent paid less.
The General Business Conditions Index, Six Months Ahead also improved slightly but remained near the recovery low. Modest improvement in each of the component series was logged except for prices paid, which fell to an expansion low. Expectations for capital spending also deteriorated.
The Empire State figures are diffusion indexes which are calculated by subtracting the percent of respondents reporting poorer business conditions from those reporting improvement. Thus, they have a good correlation with growth in the series covered. The data is available in Haver's SURVEYS database. The ISM-adjusted headline index is calculated by Haver Analytics. The series dates back to 2001. The Action Economics figure can be found in Haver's AS1REPNA database.
|Empire State Manufacturing Survey||Feb||Jan||Dec||Feb'15||2015||2014||2013|
|General Business Conditions Index (ISM Adjusted, >50=Increasing Activity, SA)||47.4||43.0||46.2||52.5||48.9||52.4||50.0|
|General Business Conditions (Diffusion Index, %, SA)||-16.64||-19.37||-6.21||7.71||-2.34||11.89||3.88|
|Number of Employees||-0.99||-13.00||-16.16||10.11||2.72||10.85||3.73|