- Japan: First Ten Days Trade (Mar), International Trade, Foreign Banks Foreign Banks in Japan (Feb)
- New Zealand: Tourism Expenditure, International Reserves, RBNZ Analytical Accounts/Statistical Balance Sheet, Foreign Currency Assets, Liabilities, and Currency Flows (Feb); Australia: Flow of Funds (Q4), Job Vacancies (Q1)
- Korea: Building Permits (Feb); Philippines: LFS (Q3)
- US: IIP (Q4)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Mortgage Loan Applications Remain Little Changed; Variable Rate Apps Surge
The MBA total Mortgage Market Volume Index slipped 0.8% last week (-12.4% y/y)...
La Dolce Vita? Italian Confidence Bumps Higher
Italian business and consumer confidence moved higher in March...
U.S. Consumer Confidence Improves Significantly
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for March strengthened 8.2% (30.7% y/y) to 125.6...
U.S. Energy Product Prices Remain Under Pressure
Regular gasoline prices held steady at $2.32 per gallon last week (12.1% y/y) for the third straight week...
German Federal Debt Levels Fall
German debt level fell outright in Q4 2016 as the ratio of federal debt-to-GDP also fell...
NABE 2018 Forecast: Modest Improvement in Economic Growth & Higher Inflation
The NABE expects 2.5% real U.S. economic growth in 2018 compared to 2.3% forecast for 2017...
by Tom Moeller February 16, 2016
The Composite Housing Market Index from the National Association of Home Builders-Wells Fargo declined 4.9% to 58, the lowest level in nine months. January's level of 61 was revised up slightly. The NAHB figures are seasonally adjusted. During the last ten years, there has been an 81% correlation between the y/y change in the home builders index and the y/y change in single-family housing starts.
The index of single-family home sales fell 4.4% (+6.6% y/y) to 65, and reversed its January improvement. Offsetting this decline, however, was a rise in the index of expected sales during the next six months. It rose 1.6% to 65 (10.2% y/y) and reversed most of the prior month's fall.
Home builders reported that their traffic index fell sharply for the third straight month. The 11.4% m/m decline left the level of traffic unchanged from a year earlier.
The housing market index easing reflected declines throughout the country. In the West, the index fell 6.8% (+6.3% y/y), down for the third consecutive month. The index for the South declined 5.0% (+1.8% y/y) to the lowest level since March. In the Midwest, the index was off 3.4% (+18.8% y/y) and reversed roughly half of a strong January gain. The reading for the Northeast fell 4.3% (-2.2% y/y) to the lowest level in six months.
The NAHB has compiled the Housing Market Index since 1985. It reflects survey questions asking builders to rate market conditions as "good," "fair," "poor" or "very high" to "very low." The figure is thus a diffusion index with numerical results over 50 indicating a predominance of "good" readings. The weights assigned to the individual index components are .5920 for single-family detached sales, present time, .1358 for single-family detached sales, next six months and .2722 for traffic of prospective buyers. The results are included in Haver's SURVEYS database. The expectations figure is available in Haver's MMSAMER database.
|National Association of Home Builders||Feb||Jan||Dec||Feb'15||2015||2014||2013|
|Composite Housing Market Index, SA (All Good=100)||58||61||60||55||59||52||51|
|Single-Family Sales: Present||65||68||65||61||64||56||55|
|Single-Family Sales: Next Six Months||65||64||66||59||66||61||58|
|Traffic of Prospective Buyers||39||44||46||39||43||39||39|