- Korea: GDP (Q4); Thailand Auto Sales (Feb)
- Turkey: Capacity Utilization, Business Tendency survey (Mar); South Africa: Tourism & Migration (Jan), Manufacturing Survey (Q1)
- Croatia: Tourism (Jan); Montenegro: Foreign Trade (Feb); Czech Republic: CPI by COICOP (Feb), Registered Employment (Q4); Kazakhstan: Loans & Deposits (Feb); Slovenia: Business Cycle Indicators (Mar); Russia: Employment by Industry (Q4);
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
Texas Factory Sector Activity Remains Strong
The Dallas Fed indicated in its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey that the General Business Activity Index eased during March...
EMU Money and Credit Growth Are Less Than Impressive Than Euro-PMIs
EMU nominal money supply growth is slightly higher over three months, but credit growth in the EMU is slower...
Durable Goods Orders Strengthened by Another Jump in Aircraft
New orders for durable goods rose 1.7% (5.0% y/y) during February...
Correction to Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims
The Department of Labor has issued a correction to yesterday's annual revision to seasonally adjusted weekly unemployment claims...
EMU PMIs Are Off to the Races...Farewell Mediocrity?
The PMI rankings for the manufacturing and service sector PMIs in the EMU are suddenly off the chart...
U.S. New Home Sales Improve While Prices Decline
Sales of new single-family homes increased 6.1% (12.8% y/y) during February to 592,000 units (AR)...
by Tom Moeller February 18, 2016
The Conference Board's Index of Leading Economic Indicators fell 0.2% in January (+2.2% y/y), following a revised 0.3% December decline. The fall matched expectations in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The three-month change in the index fell to zero, its weakest reading since September. Lower stock prices, higher initial jobless insurance claims, a weaker ISM new orders index and fewer building permits accounted for the decline. These losses were offset by a steeper interest rate yield curve, a longer workweek, more nondefense capital goods orders, the leading credit index and improved consumer expectations for business & economic conditions.
The coincident index improved 0.3% (1.8% y/y) after an unrevised 0.1% uptick in December. The three-month rate growth rate rose to 1.4% (AR). Each of the component series contributed to the rise in the overall index, including industrial production, nonfarm payrolls, personal income less transfers and manufacturing & trade sales.
The lagging index ticked 0.1% higher (3.7% y/y) after an unrevised 0.2% gain. The three-month growth rate slowed to 2.7% (AR), the weakest growth since August. More C&I loans, a higher prime interest rate charged by banks, a higher consumer installment credit/personal income ratio and a stronger services CPI were the largest contributors to the index rise. These were offset by a shorter average duration of unemployment and lessened unit labor costs per unit of output.
The ratio of coincident to lagging indicators also is a leading indicator of economic activity. It measures excesses in the economy relative to its ongoing performance. This ratio rose slightly in January from its December low.
The Conference Board figures are available in Haver's BCI database; the components are available there, and most are also in USECON. The forecast figures for the Consensus are in the AS1REPNA database. Visit the Conference Board's site for coverage of leading indicator series from around the world.
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