- New Zealand: International Trade (Feb)
- Korea: Consumer Survey Index (Mar); Philippines: Public Finance (Jan)
- Weekly: **Initial Claims Data Revisions Completed**
- Euro area: Flash Consumer Confidence Indicator (Mar)
- US: New Residential Sales (Feb)
- Belgium: Business Survey (Mar)
- Uruguay: GDP (Q4)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
Kansas City Federal Reserve Factory Index Strengthens; Expectations Surge
The Kansas City Fed reported that its index of regional manufacturing sector business activity increased to 20 during March...
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Rise
Initial claims for unemployment insurance increased to 258,000 (-3.0% y/y) during the week ended March 18...
U.K. Retail Looks Less Bulletproof
For the most part, the assessments embodied in the March survey from the UK's CBI are being taken as being upbeat...
U.S. Existing Home Sales Fall to Five-Month Low; Inventory Remains Tight
Sales of existing single-family homes declined 3.7% (+5.4% y/y) to 5.480 million units (AR) during February...
U.S. FHFA House Price Index Momentum Diminishes
The FHFA U.S. house price index remained unchanged during January following a 0.4% December increase ...
Japan's Trade Trends Turn Sharply Higher
Japan has logged its largest current account surplus since April 2010...
by Tom Moeller February 18, 2016
The Philadelphia Federal Reserve reported that its General Factory Sector Business Conditions Index for February remained negative at -2.8 versus -3.5 in January. It was the sixth consecutive reading below zero, although losses have moderated since December. The latest reading matched expectations in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
The ISM-adjusted General Business Conditions Index constructed by Haver Analytics deteriorated to 44.7 from 47.5. It remained below 50 for the seventh month in the last eight. It is comparable to the ISM Composite Index. During the last ten years, there has been a 71% correlation between the adjusted Philadelphia Fed Index and real GDP growth.
Each of the components of the overall index deteriorated versus January. New orders and unfilled orders both fell sharply m/m, while shipments showed a slower rate of increase. The vendor delivery index became more negative, continuing to suggest faster delivery speeds, and inventories fell. The employment measure remained negative for a second month. During the last ten years, there has been an 81% correlation between the jobs index and the m/m change in manufacturing payrolls. The length of the average workweek shortened substantially.
On the pricing front, the prices paid index showed deflation for a sixth consecutive month. Nineteen percent of respondents paid higher prices, while 21% paid less. The prices received measure remained negative.
The future business activity index deteriorated sharply to its lowest level since November 2012. Expected new orders, shipments and unfilled orders fell significantly. Employment also deteriorated, along with capital expenditures and prices paid.
The survey panel consists of 150 manufacturing companies in Federal Reserve District III (consisting of southeastern PA, southern NJ and Delaware.) The diffusion indexes represent the percentage of respondents indicating an increase minus the percentage indicating a decrease in activity. The ISM adjusted figure, calculated by Haver Analytics, is the average of five diffusion indexes, new orders, production, employment, supplier deliveries and inventories with equal weights (20% each). Each diffusion index is the sum of the percent responding "higher" and one-half of the percent responding "same."
The figures from the Philadelphia Federal Reserve can be found in Haver's SURVEYS database. The Action Economics figure is available in AS1REPNA.
|Philadelphia Fed (%, SA)||Feb||Jan||Dec||Feb'15||2015||2014||2013|
|ISM-Adjusted General Business Conditions||44.7||47.5||45.2||52.1||49.4||53.7||50.0|
|General Factory Sector Business Conditions||-2.8||-3.5||-10.2||13.0||3.6||18.3||6.1|
|Number of Employees||-5.0||-1.9||2.2||5.7||3.9||10.5||1.4|