- Japan: First Ten Days Trade (Mar), International Trade, Foreign Banks Foreign Banks in Japan (Feb)
- New Zealand: Tourism Expenditure, International Reserves, RBNZ Analytical Accounts/Statistical Balance Sheet, Foreign Currency Assets, Liabilities, and Currency Flows (Feb); Australia: Flow of Funds (Q4), Job Vacancies (Q1)
- Korea: Building Permits (Feb); Philippines: LFS (Q3)
- US: IIP (Q4)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Mortgage Loan Applications Remain Little Changed; Variable Rate Apps Surge
The MBA total Mortgage Market Volume Index slipped 0.8% last week (-12.4% y/y)...
La Dolce Vita? Italian Confidence Bumps Higher
Italian business and consumer confidence moved higher in March...
U.S. Consumer Confidence Improves Significantly
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for March strengthened 8.2% (30.7% y/y) to 125.6...
U.S. Energy Product Prices Remain Under Pressure
Regular gasoline prices held steady at $2.32 per gallon last week (12.1% y/y) for the third straight week...
German Federal Debt Levels Fall
German debt level fell outright in Q4 2016 as the ratio of federal debt-to-GDP also fell...
NABE 2018 Forecast: Modest Improvement in Economic Growth & Higher Inflation
The NABE expects 2.5% real U.S. economic growth in 2018 compared to 2.3% forecast for 2017...
by Tom Moeller February 22, 2016
The Chicago Federal Reserve reported that its National Activity Index (CFNAI) during January rose to 0.28 from -0.34 in December, revised from -0.22. It was the first positive figure in six months. The 3-month moving average improved to -0.15, but still suggested economic growth below its long-term trend. During the last ten years, there has been a 77% correlation between the Chicago Fed Index and the q/q change in real GDP.
Movement in the four component series of the overall index was mixed last month. The Production & Income reading at 0.27 was positive for the first time since July. The three-month average improved just slightly. Employment, Unemployment & Hours eased slightly m/m, but continued to trend higher. Sales, Orders & Inventories remained negative for the fifth month in the last six. The Personal Consumption & Housing figure held steady m/m at -0.08, yet continued its upward trend. The Fed reported that 39 of the 85 component series made positive contributions to the total while 46 made negative contributions.
The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of national economic activity. It is constructed to have an average value of zero and a standard deviation of one. Since economic activity tends toward trend growth rate over time, a positive index reading corresponds to growth above trend and a negative index reading corresponds to growth below trend.
The Chicago Federal Reserve figures are available in Haver's SURVEYS database.
Is There a Case for Inflation Overshooting? from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco is available here.
|Chicago Federal Reserve Bank||Jan||Dec||Nov||Jan '15||2015||2014||2013|
|National Activity Index (percent)||0.28||-0.34||-0.39||-0.14||-0.14||0.21||-0.05|
|3-Month Moving Average||-0.15||-0.30||-0.20||0.20||--||--||--|
|Personal Consumption & Housing||-0.08||-0.08||-0.04||-0.09||-0.09||-0.11||-0.15|
|Employment, Unemployment & Hours||0.12||0.16||0.14||0.14||0.08||0.18||0.10|
|Production & Income||0.27||-0.38||-0.40||-0.15||-0.12||0.11||-0.02|
|Sales, Orders & Inventories||-0.03||-0.04||-0.09||-0.04||-0.01||0.04||0.02|