- US: Advance Trade & Inventories (Feb)
- Sweden: Retail Trade, PPI, International Trade (Feb); Iceland: CPI (Mar)
- Turkey: International Reserves (Feb); Mauritius: Wage Rate Index, LFS (Q4); Saudi Arabia: Non-Oil Foreign Trade (Jan); Palestine: BOP (Q4); UAE: Fuel Prices (Apr); Israel: Construction Starts & Completions (Q4); South Africa: Construction Survey (Q1); Tanzania: Trade (Q4)
- Brazil: PPI (Feb)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
Texas Factory Sector Activity Remains Strong
The Dallas Fed indicated in its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey that the General Business Activity Index eased during March...
EMU Money and Credit Growth Are Less Than Impressive Than Euro-PMIs
EMU nominal money supply growth is slightly higher over three months, but credit growth in the EMU is slower...
Durable Goods Orders Strengthened by Another Jump in Aircraft
New orders for durable goods rose 1.7% (5.0% y/y) during February...
Correction to Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims
The Department of Labor has issued a correction to yesterday's annual revision to seasonally adjusted weekly unemployment claims...
EMU PMIs Are Off to the Races...Farewell Mediocrity?
The PMI rankings for the manufacturing and service sector PMIs in the EMU are suddenly off the chart...
U.S. New Home Sales Improve While Prices Decline
Sales of new single-family homes increased 6.1% (12.8% y/y) during February to 592,000 units (AR)...
by Tom Moeller February 23, 2016
The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index during February declined 5.7% to 92.2 (-6.7% y/y) from 97.8 in January, revised from 98.1. It was the lowest level of confidence since July. The figure disappointed Consensus forecasts for a reading of 97.5, according to the Action Economics Forecast Survey. During the last ten years there, has been a 70% correlation between the level of confidence and the y/y change in real consumer spending.
A 7.5% drop (-12.3% y/y) in the expectations reading to 78.9 led the decline as it fell to the lowest level since February 2014. The present situations figure followed with a 3.9% drop (unchanged y/y) to 112.1, the lowest level in three months.
Consumers perception that business conditions were bad rose to the highest point since November 2014. The appraisal that jobs were hard to get nudged higher to 24.2% of respondents, but has been trending sideways for six months. Looking forward, a lessened 14.6% of respondents thought that business conditions would improve, down from 20.8% in August 2014. Expectations that conditions would worsen has been trending upward. A greatly lessened 12.2% of respondents thought there would be more jobs, while a higher 17.2% expected fewer jobs.
Expectations for the inflation rate fell to 4.7%, the lowest level since early 2007. Higher interest rates were expected by a sharply reduced 61.0% of respondents.
Plans to buy a new home deteriorated to the lowest level in six months, and major appliance buying plans plummeted. Intentions to buy a new car improved, however, to the highest point since September.
By age group, confidence amongst respondents under age 35 deteriorated sharply to the weakest point since July. Confidence amongst those aged 35-54 years eased to a three-month low, and confidence amongst respondents over age 55 similarly fell slightly. Both of these latter figures were down sharply, however, from last year's highs.
The Consumer Confidence data is available in Haver's CBDB database. The total indexes appear in USECON, and the market expectations are in AS1REPNA.
|Conference Board (SA, 1985=100)||Feb||Jan||Dec||Y/Y %||2015||2014||2013|
|Consumer Confidence Index||92.2||97.8||96.3||-6.7||98.0||86.9||73.2|
|Consumer Confidence By Age Group|
|Under 35 Years||105.9||123.7||120.6||-7.3||116.0||106.6||93.1|
|Aged 35-54 Years||99.9||102.1||100.6||-6.6||103.9||92.4||76.8|
|Over 55 Years||81.8||84.0||79.8||-7.8||84.0||73.8||61.2|