- Sweden: Consumer Confidence, Business Tendency Survey, Public Finance (Mar)
- Spain: Mortgage Market (Jan), Order Book Forecast (Mar)
- Italy: ISTAT Business & Consumer Survey Press Release (Mar)
- Germany: Business Registrations & Deregistrations (Dec), Import & Export Prices (Feb), IAB Labor Market Barometer (Mar)
- Vietnam: GDP (Q1), CPI, IP, International Trade, Passenger & Cargo Traffic Statistics, Manufacturing Sales and Inventories, International Visitor Arrivals (Mar); Korea: Economic Sentiment
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Economy in Brief
U.S. Energy Product Prices Remain Under Pressure
Regular gasoline prices held steady at $2.32 per gallon last week (12.1% y/y) for the third straight week...
German Federal Debt Levels Fall
German debt level fell outright in Q4 2016 as the ratio of federal debt-to-GDP also fell...
NABE 2018 Forecast: Modest Improvement in Economic Growth & Higher Inflation
The NABE expects 2.5% real U.S. economic growth in 2018 compared to 2.3% forecast for 2017...
Texas Factory Sector Activity Remains Strong
The Dallas Fed indicated in its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey that the General Business Activity Index eased during March...
EMU Money and Credit Growth Are Less Than Impressive Than Euro-PMIs
EMU nominal money supply growth is slightly higher over three months, but credit growth in the EMU is slower...
Durable Goods Orders Strengthened by Another Jump in Aircraft
New orders for durable goods rose 1.7% (5.0% y/y) during February...
by Tom Moeller February 25, 2016
Factory sector activity is gaining strength. New orders for durable goods recovered 4.9% during January (1.8% y/y) following a 4.6% December decline, revised from -5.1%. A 2.4% increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
An 11.5% surge (6.7% y/y) in transportation sector orders led the recovery, as it made up a 12.1% decline. Nondefense aircraft orders surged by 54.2% (5.2% y/y) following sharp declines in the prior two months. Defense aircraft orders also jumped 84.8% (22 .6% y/y) and motor vehicle orders gained 3.0% (10.7% y/y). Outside of the transportation sector, orders advanced 1.8% (-0.6% y/y) and made up declines in the prior two months.
Machinery orders jumped 6.9% (0.4% y/y) and recouped losses during November & December. Orders for electrical equipment increased 1.1% (-0.7% y/y), strong for the third straight month. Computer & electronic product orders gained 0.8% (7.0% y/y) after a 1.9% decline. Computer & related product orders jumped 6.4%, but they were down 8.9% y/y. Communications equipment bookings recovered 9.6% (-4.1% y/y) following a 17.4% drop. Fabricated metals orders increased 1.6% (-0.2% y/y) and primary metal orders gained 0.7% (-14.4% y/y).
Shipments of durable goods increased 1.9% (0.9% y/y) following a 1.6% drop. Outside of transportation, shipments edged 0.2% higher, but were down 0.9% y/y. Unfilled orders ticked 0.1% higher (-1.8% y/y) following a 0.5% fall. Outside of transportation backlogs rose 0.2% (-2.0% y/y). Durable goods inventories eased 0.1% (-0.8% y/y). Outside of transportation, inventories dropped 0.4% (-2.4% y/y), and they've been declining steadily since May.
The durable goods figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics consensus forecast figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
|Durable Goods NAICS Classification||Jan||Dec||Nov||Jan Y/Y||2015||2014||2013|
|New Orders (SA, %)||4.9||-4.6||-0.5||1.8||-3.3||6.8||2.2|
|Total Excluding Transportation||1.8||-0.7||-0.5||-0.6||-2.5||7.2||0.1|
|Nondefense Capital Goods||21.6||-14.1||-7.9||-1.5||-10.2||6.6||2.8|