- US: Advance Durable Goods, Advance Trade & Inventories (Mar)
- Brazil: PPI (Mar); Mexico: Compensation and Productivity (Feb)
- Canada: Payroll Employment, Earnings, & Hours (Feb)
- Spain: Advanced HICP & CPI, Construction Business Survey Press (Apr)
- Belgium: CPI (Apr)
- Germany: GfK Consumer Climate Survey, State CPI: Bavaria, Saxony, Berlin, Hesse, North Rhine-Westphalia, Brandenburg (Apr)
- Building Permits (Feb)
- UK: Motor Vehicle Production (Mar)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Gasoline Prices Are Little-Changed; Crude Oil Falls
Regular gasoline prices of $2.45 per gallon last week (13.3% y/y)...
Japan's METI Indexes Show Ongoing Gains
The services sector is assessed by the METI indexes where it is named the 'tertiary sector.' That sector index rose to 104.1 in February...
U.S. New Home Sales & Prices Strengthen
Sales of new single-family homes increased 5.8% (15.6% y/y) during March to 621,000...
U.S. Consumer Confidence Backpedals
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index fell 3.7% during April (+27.0% y/y) to 120.3...
U.S. FHFA House Price Index Regains Strength
The FHFA U.S. house prices increased 0.8% during February (6.5% y/y)...
French Manufacturing and Service Sectors Weaken But Stay on Trend or Hold Recent Gains
The French manufacturing sector trend index is down to 1 in April from 3 in March...
by Tom Moeller February 26, 2016
Economic growth slowed less than previously estimated last quarter. Gross domestic product grew at a 1.0% annual rate (1.9% y/y), up from the advance estimate of a 0.7% gain. Nevertheless, growth was half that in Q3 and down sharply from 3.9% in Q2. The Action Economics Forecast Survey called for 0.4% growth. The chain-type price index was revised up to a 0.9% gain from 0.8%. Expectations were for 0.8%.
The rate of business inventory decumulation subtracted 0.1 percentage points from GDP growth instead of 0.4 points estimated originally. Also subtracting slightly less was deterioration in the foreign trade deficit. The revision to -0.3 percentage points from -0.5 points reflected a slight decline in imports (+2.9% y/y) rather than a moderate rise. Exports fell 2.7% (-0.8% y/y), revised from -2.5%.
Growth in domestic final demand was lessened to 1.4% (2.4% y/y) from 1.6%, and it compared to a 2.9% gain in Q3 and a 3.7% advance in Q2. Slower growth in consumer spending of 2.0% (2.6% y/y) reflected a 6.5% decline (+0.5% y/y) in motor vehicle & parts purchases. That followed a 3.0% increase. Clothing buying fell slightly (+1.6% y/y) after a 1.3% rise, and gasoline & fuel oil spending dropped 2.7% (+1.9% y/y) after 5.2% growth. To the upside, purchases of recreational goods & vehicles strengthened 13.3% (9.6% y/y) after 10.2% growth in Q3, and home furnishings purchases grew 4.9% (5.8% y/y) following an 8.7% jump.
Business fixed investment was little-revised and declined 1.9% (+1.6% y/y), after a 2.6% increase. Structures spending declined 6.6% (-3.9% y/y), off for the third quarter in the last four. Equipment spending fell 1.8% (+2.6% y/y), led by a 30.3% drop (-4.1% y/y) in computers & peripherals. Investment in intellectual property products improved 1.3% (4.0% y/y). Residential investment was little-revised at 7.9% growth (8.9% y/y) following an 8.2% rise.
A lowered figure for government spending also contributed to the lessened estimate of overall demand growth. Overall government investment eased 0.1% (+2.6% y/y), revised from +0.7%. State & local government spending fell 1.4% (+1.2% y/y), but federal government purchases improved 2.2% (0.9% y/y). National defense spending grew 2.7% (0.6% y/y).
The chain type price index was little-revised at 0.9% growth (1.1% y/y) after a 1.3% Q3 rise. The PCE price index was held to 0.4% (0.5% y/y) as gasoline pries fell 26.4% (22.1% y/y). The price index excluding food & energy rose 1.3% (1.4% y/y), about the same as it did in Q3. Durable goods prices eased 1.3% (-1.6% y/y) as furniture & appliance prices declined 2.8% (-2.2% y/y). Clothing prices fell 2.8% (-1.0% y/y). Services costs increased 1.9% (1.9% y/y) as the price index for hotels & restaurants jumped 3.8% (2.5% y/y).
The GDP figures can be found in Haver's USECON and USNA database. USNA contains virtually all of the Bureau of Economic Analysis' detail in the national accounts, including the integrated economic accounts and the recently added GDP data for U.S. Territories. The Action Economics consensus estimates can be found in AS1REPNA.
|Chained 2009 $ (%, AR)||Q4'15 (2nd Estimate)||Q4'15 (Advance Estimate)||Q3'15||Q2'15||Q4 Y/Y||2015||2014||2013|
|Gross Domestic Product||1.0||0.7||2.0||3.9||1.9||2.4||2.4||1.5|
|Foreign Trade Effect||-0.3||-0.5||-0.3||0.2||-0.5||-0.6||-0.1||0.2|
|Domestic Final Sales||1.4||1.6||2.9||3.7||2.4||2.8||2.8||1.2|
|Personal Consumption Expenditures||2.0||2.2||3.0||3.6||2.6||3.1||2.7||1.7|
|Business Fixed Investment||-1.9||-1.8||2.6||4.1||1.6||2.9||6.2||3.0|
|Chain-Type Price Index|
|Personal Consumption Expenditures||0.4||0.1||1.3||2.2||0.5||0.3||1.4||1.4|