- Retail Trade, Household Consumption (Feb), Population (Feb)
- Mauritius: PPI (Feb-Prelim)
- Business Sentiment Survey (Mar)
- Korea: Building Permits (Feb); Philippines: LFS (Q3); Thailand: PPI (Mar-Press)
- Japan: First Ten Days Trade (Mar), International Trade, Real Trade Indexes (Feb)
- New Zealand: Tourism Expenditure, International Reserves, RBNZ Analytical Accounts/Statistical Balance Sheet, Foreign Currency
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Mortgage Loan Applications Remain Little Changed; Variable Rate Apps Surge
The MBA total Mortgage Market Volume Index slipped 0.8% last week (-12.4% y/y)...
La Dolce Vita? Italian Confidence Bumps Higher
Italian business and consumer confidence moved higher in March...
U.S. Consumer Confidence Improves Significantly
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for March strengthened 8.2% (30.7% y/y) to 125.6...
U.S. Energy Product Prices Remain Under Pressure
Regular gasoline prices held steady at $2.32 per gallon last week (12.1% y/y) for the third straight week...
German Federal Debt Levels Fall
German debt level fell outright in Q4 2016 as the ratio of federal debt-to-GDP also fell...
NABE 2018 Forecast: Modest Improvement in Economic Growth & Higher Inflation
The NABE expects 2.5% real U.S. economic growth in 2018 compared to 2.3% forecast for 2017...
by Tom Moeller February 26, 2016
Personal consumption expenditures strengthened 0.5% during January (4.2% y/y) after a 0.1% uptick, revised from little-change. It was the strongest rise since May. A 0.3% increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Spending on durable goods was notably strong, up 1.2% (5.1% y/y). Motor vehicle purchases rebounded 2.2% (3.2% y/y) after a 2.4% decline. Furnishings spending rose 0.5% (3.8% y/y), the strongest rise in four months. Purchases of recreational products & vehicles surged 0.9% (8.4% y/y) on the heels of a 1.2% jump. Nondurable goods spending remained little changed (2.7% y/y), held back by a 5.1% drop (-4.6% y/y) in gasoline. Clothing & footwear purchases rose 0.5% (1.7% y/y). Services spending strengthened 0.6% (4.5% y/y) as housing & utilities jumped 1.1% (3.0% y/y). Financial services & insurance spending rose 0.8% (5.0% y/y), but foods services & accommodations spending backpedaled 0.4% (+6.1% y/y). Adjusted for price inflation, personal consumption rose 0.4% (2.9% y/y), also the strongest increase since April.
Personal income improved 0.5% (4.3% y/y) after three straight months of 0.3% increase. It was the firmest increases since May. Wages & salaries strengthened 0.6% (4.5% y/y), the firmest gain in three months. Rental income jumped 0.7% (7.5% y/y) while proprietors income gained 0.5% (3.3% y/y). Transfer receipts increased 0.4% (4.4% y/y) but social security payments declined 0.6% (+2.8% y/y). This decline was offset by a 0.6% rise in Medicare payments (5.0% y/y). Disposable personal income increased 0.5% (4.0% y/y), the strongest increase since June. Adjusted for price increases, income gained 0.4% (2.8% y/y).
The personal savings rate eased slightly to 5.2%, near where it has been since the end of 2014. Personal saving increased 1.6% y/y.
The chain-type price index improved 0.1% and reversed December's decline. The y/y gain accelerated to 1.3%, the firmest rise since late-2014. The index excluding food & energy also strengthened with a 0.3% increase (1.7% y/y), also the strongest rise since January 2012. The service price index rose 0.3% (2.1% y/y) and has been strengthening for a year. The durable goods index gained 0.1% (-0.9%), but that rate of y/y decline compares with -2.7% a year ago. The nondurables price index fell 0.4% (-0.3% y/y), but the rate of decline also has moderated.
The personal income & consumption figures are available in Haver's USECON database with detail in the USNA database. The Action Economics figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
The Graying of American Debt from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York is available here.
|Personal Income & Outlays (%)||Jan||Dec||Nov||Jan Y/Y||2015||2014||2013|
|Wages & Salaries||0.6||0.2||0.5||4.5||4.6||5.1||2.7|
|Disposable Personal Income||0.5||0.3||0.2||4.0||3.7||4.2||-0.1|
|Personal Consumption Expenditures||0.5||0.1||0.4||4.2||3.4||4.2||3.1|
|Personal Saving Rate||5.2||5.5||5.3||5.3
|PCE Chain Price Index||0.1||-0.1||0.1||1.3||0.3||1.4||1.4|
|Less Food & Energy||0.3||0.1||0.1||1.7||1.3||1.5||1.5|
|Real Disposable Income||0.4||0.4||0.1||2.8||3.4||2.7||-1.4|
|Real Personal Consumption Expenditures||0.4||0.2||0.3||2.9||3.1||2.7||1.7|