- Korea: Housing Price Index (Apr)
- US: Consumer Sentiment (Apr-final), GDP (Q1 Adv), ECI (Q1)
- Consumer Sentiment Detail (Apr-final)
- US: Selected NIPA Tables (Q1-Adv), Summary key Source Data (Q1)
- Canada: GDP by Industry (Feb), Industrial Product Prices (Mar)
- *Taiwan National House Price Indexes Rebased to 2016=100.*
- Euro area: HICP (Apr-Flash), ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (Q2)
- Italy: CPI, HICP (Apr-Prelim)
- Brazil: Sao Paolo Capacity Utilization (Mar);Mexico: Debt (Mar);
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Employment Cost Index Has Stronger Gain
Lifted by outsized rises in several industries, the employment cost index for civilian workers rose 0.8% (2.4% y/y) during Q1'17...
Chicago Purchasing Managers Index Strengthens
The Chicago Purchasing Managers Business Barometer Index for April increased to 58.3 from 57.7 in March...
EMU Money and Credit Perk Up
There is some noticeable acceleration in EMU money and credit growth...
Durable Goods Orders Improvement Moderates
New orders for durable goods rose 0.7% (4.5% y/y) during March...
U.S. Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Increase
Initial unemployment claims for unemployment insurance rose to 257,000 during the week ended April 22...
U.S. Pending Home Sales Ease
The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported that pending home sales slipped 0.8% ((+0.8% y/y) during March...
by Tom Moeller March 1, 2016
The ISM Composite Index of factory sector activity rose to 49.5, the highest level since September. It indicated a decline in factory sector activity for the fifth straight month, but exceeded expectations for 48.5 in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The data from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) are diffusion indexes where a reading below 50 indicates decline.
Improvement in the production series to 52.8 from 50.2 led the overall increase, as it indicated a rising level of output for a second month. The employment figure increased as well to 48.5 from 45.9. As it remained below 50, however, it suggested a decline in payrolls for the fourth month in the last five. During the last ten years, there has been an 88% correlation between the index and the m/m change in factory sector payrolls. The inventory series also gained to 45.0, suggesting the slowest rate of decumulation since October.
Holding steady m/m at 51.5 was the new orders figure. It suggested a modestly higher level of bookings following two earlier months of decline. The supplier delivery series declined to 49.7, continuing the sideways move in place since early last year.
The prices paid series rose to 38.5, showing the slowest rate of price decline since October. Nine percent (NSA) of respondents reported higher prices while 32% indicated lower prices.
The new export orders index eased to 46.5, suggesting the quickest rate of orders decline since July 2012. The import index eased slightly, but overall order backlogs rose to 48.5, the highest level in nine months.
The figures from the Institute for Supply Management can be found in Haver's USECON database. The expectations number is in Haver's AS1REPNA database.
|ISM Mfg (SA)||Feb||Jan||Dec||Feb '15||2015||2014||2013|
|Prices Paid Index (NSA)||38.5||33.5||33.5||35.0||39.8||55.6||53.8|