- Weekly: **Unemployment Initial Claims Data have been revised**
- US: Housing Starts by State and Region (Feb)
- CPB World Trade Monitor (Jan)
- CPB World Trade Monitor (Jan)
- France: Registered Unemployed & Job Vacancies (Feb)
- US: Household Employment for States and Regions (Feb)
- US: Wholesale Trade Revisions, Advance Durable Goods (Feb)
- Manufacturing Survey - Markit US (Flash - Mar), Composite Survey - US (Flash - Mar), Services Survey - US (Flash - Mar)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
Correction to Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims
The Department of Labor has issued a correction to yesterday's annual revision to seasonally adjusted weekly unemployment claims...
EMU PMIs Are Off to the Races...Farewell Mediocrity?
The PMI rankings for the manufacturing and service sector PMIs in the EMU are suddenly off the chart...
U.S. New Home Sales Improve While Prices Decline
Sales of new single-family homes increased 6.1% (12.8% y/y) during February to 592,000 units (AR)...
Kansas City Federal Reserve Factory Index Strengthens; Expectations Surge
The Kansas City Fed reported that its index of regional manufacturing sector business activity increased to 20 during March...
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Rise
Initial claims for unemployment insurance increased to 258,000 (-3.0% y/y) during the week ended March 18...
U.K. Retail Looks Less Bulletproof
For the most part, the assessments embodied in the March survey from the UK's CBI are being taken as being upbeat...
by Carol Stone, CBE March 10, 2016
Total borrowing in the U.S. rebounded in Q4 to $4,014 billion at a seasonally adjusted annual rate, according to the Financial Accounts of the U.S., which were released today by the Federal Reserve Board. The large total was mainly due to a whipsaw federal government borrowing which resulted from the debt ceiling crisis in the early autumn. Otherwise, customary borrowing by households and businesses remained moderate. The Q4 borrowing total was 22.1% of GDP, compared to just 5.4% in Q3. For all of 2015, credit market borrowing totaled $2,188 billion, 12.2% of GDP, very similar to the 10-13% range of the previous three years.
The federal government's total credit market borrowing of $2,682 billion SAAR in Q4 consisted of $1,230 billion of marketable bills, notes and bonds, and $1,450 billion of nonmarketable securities. There was also a tiny amount of borrowing of multi-family mortgages. The marketable debt issuance in Q3 had been $496 billion, whereas nonmarketable debt was paid down then at a $471 billion annual rate. The relatively small total in Q3 resulted from the debt ceiling crisis, and trust funds were liquidated then to meet current needs. Later, in Q4, after the debt ceiling was finally raised, the trust funds were replenished, according to the Federal Reserve's explanation and nonmarketable borrowing reflected that need. In the accompanying graph, note the similar patterns in 2011 and 2013.
Borrowing by households did increase in Q4 to $481 billion SAAR, up from Q3's $229 billion. However, this increase, too, was related to a "special factor", as it was concentrated in "other" loans and in business-oriented depository institution loans, which are generally used by hedge funds, not ordinary households. Traditional types of borrowing by households actually decreased somewhat in Q4; home mortgage borrowing was $147 billion, SAAR, down from Q3's $162 billion, and consumer credit borrowing was $207 billion, down a bit from Q3's $246 billion.
Nonfinancial corporate business borrowing decreased to $214 billion SAAR in Q4 from $365 billion in Q3. Corporate bond issuance was just $220 billion SAAR, compared to Q3's $319 billion. Depository institution loans and "other" loans were paid down at a $15 billion annual rate after Q3's $33 billion paydowns. Commercial paper issuance also slowed, to just $23 billion, from $70 billion in Q3.
The financial sector continued its minimal net borrowing pace, just $206 billion SAAR in Q4, following $284 billion in Q3.
Press reports of these Financial Accounts highlight household balance sheets and net worth. Household net worth rose in Q4 to $86.8 trillion (not seasonally adjusted) from $85.2 trillion at the end of Q3. Households' holdings of corporate equities rose somewhat, as did mutual fund shares. Pension fund entitlements, which had decreased in Q3, recovered in Q4. Homeowners' equity also increased.
Net wealth of the total economy also increased in Q4. This measure, recently devised by the Federal Reserve, was $86.8 trillion (not seasonally adjusted level) at year-end, up $1.6 trillion from end-Q3. Much of that, $1.2 trillion, was seen in the increased market value of domestic corporations. Household holdings of nonfinancial assets increased $517 billion, but net U.S. claims on foreign assets went down $263 billion.
The Financial Accounts data are in Haver's FFUNDS database. Associated information is compiled in the Integrated Macroeconomic Accounts produced jointly with the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA); these are carried in Haver's USNA database.
|Financial Accounts (SAAR, Bil.$)||Q4'15||Q3'15||Q2'15||2015||2014||2013||2012|
|Nonfinancial Corporate Business||214||365||673||476||495||424||305|