- US: Advance Trade & Inventories (Feb)
- Sweden: Retail Trade, PPI, International Trade (Feb); Iceland: CPI (Mar)
- Turkey: International Reserves (Feb); Mauritius: Wage Rate Index, LFS (Q4); Saudi Arabia: Non-Oil Foreign Trade (Jan); Palestine: BOP (Q4); UAE: Fuel Prices (Apr); Israel: Construction Starts & Completions (Q4); South Africa: Construction Survey (Q1); Tanzania: Trade (Q4)
- Brazil: PPI (Feb)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
Texas Factory Sector Activity Remains Strong
The Dallas Fed indicated in its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey that the General Business Activity Index eased during March...
EMU Money and Credit Growth Are Less Than Impressive Than Euro-PMIs
EMU nominal money supply growth is slightly higher over three months, but credit growth in the EMU is slower...
Durable Goods Orders Strengthened by Another Jump in Aircraft
New orders for durable goods rose 1.7% (5.0% y/y) during February...
Correction to Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims
The Department of Labor has issued a correction to yesterday's annual revision to seasonally adjusted weekly unemployment claims...
EMU PMIs Are Off to the Races...Farewell Mediocrity?
The PMI rankings for the manufacturing and service sector PMIs in the EMU are suddenly off the chart...
U.S. New Home Sales Improve While Prices Decline
Sales of new single-family homes increased 6.1% (12.8% y/y) during February to 592,000 units (AR)...
by Tom Moeller March 15, 2016
The Empire State Factory Index of General Business Conditions rebounded strongly this month. The New York index surged to 0.62 from -16.64 in February. It was the first positive reading since July. Expectations had been for -12.0 in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The data are reported by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and reflect business conditions in New York, northern New Jersey and southern Connecticut.
Based on these figures, Haver Analytics calculates a seasonally adjusted index that is compatible to the ISM series. The adjusted figure rebounded to 51.1 from 47.4. It was above the break-even level of 50 for the first time since June. Since inception in 2001, the business conditions index has had a 65% correlation with the change in real GDP.
Improvement in the component series was mixed. Shipments surged to 13.88, the highest level since April of last year. New orders jumped to 9.57, above 50 for the first time since May, while unfilled orders improved to -3.96, the least negative reading in nearly two years. Elsewhere there was broad-based deterioration. Employment ticked lower to -1.98 from -0.99. During the last ten years there has been a 69% correlation between the index level and the m/m change in factory sector payrolls. Delivery times sped up and the index eased to -3.96, after surging in February. Inventories back-pedaled to -6.93 and showed continued decumulation.
The prices paid index remained at 2.97, its lowest point since October and down from the 2011 high of 69.89. Twelve percent of respondents paid higher prices while 9% paid less. The index of prices received eased to -5.94, also the lowest level since October.
The index of expectations for conditions in six months rebounded to 25.52, the highest level in three months. Strength in new orders, shipments & inventories led the improvement. Expected prices remained depressed.
The Empire State figures are diffusion indexes which are calculated by subtracting the percent of respondents reporting poorer business conditions from those reporting improvement. Thus, they have a good correlation with growth in the series covered. The data is available in Haver's SURVEYS database. The ISM-adjusted headline index is calculated by Haver Analytics. The series dates back to 2001. The Action Economics figure can be found in Haver's AS1REPNA database.
|Empire State Manufacturing Survey||Mar||Feb||Jan||Mar'15||2015||2014||2013|
|General Business Conditions Index (ISM Adjusted, >50=Increasing Activity, SA)||51.1||47.4||43.0||51.9||48.9||52.4||50.0|
|General Business Conditions (Diffusion Index, %, SA)||0.62||-16.64||-19.37||6.22||-2.34||11.89||3.88|
|Number of Employees||-1.98||-0.99||-13.00||18.56||2.72||10.85||3.73|