- Korea: Housing Price Index (Apr)
- US: Consumer Sentiment (Apr-final), GDP (Q1 Adv), ECI (Q1)
- Consumer Sentiment Detail (Apr-final)
- US: Selected NIPA Tables (Q1-Adv), Summary key Source Data (Q1)
- Canada: GDP by Industry (Feb), Industrial Product Prices (Mar)
- *Taiwan National House Price Indexes Rebased to 2016=100.*
- Euro area: HICP (Apr-Flash), ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (Q2)
- Italy: CPI, HICP (Apr-Prelim)
- Brazil: Sao Paolo Capacity Utilization (Mar);Mexico: Debt (Mar);
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Employment Cost Index Has Stronger Gain
Lifted by outsized rises in several industries, the employment cost index for civilian workers rose 0.8% (2.4% y/y) during Q1'17...
Chicago Purchasing Managers Index Strengthens
The Chicago Purchasing Managers Business Barometer Index for April increased to 58.3 from 57.7 in March...
EMU Money and Credit Perk Up
There is some noticeable acceleration in EMU money and credit growth...
Durable Goods Orders Improvement Moderates
New orders for durable goods rose 0.7% (4.5% y/y) during March...
U.S. Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Increase
Initial unemployment claims for unemployment insurance rose to 257,000 during the week ended April 22...
U.S. Pending Home Sales Ease
The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported that pending home sales slipped 0.8% ((+0.8% y/y) during March...
by Tom Moeller March 15, 2016
The Composite Housing Market Index from the National Association of Home Builders-Wells Fargo held steady m/m at 58, the lowest level in nine months. The NAHB figures are seasonally adjusted. During the last ten years, there has been an 81% correlation between the y/y change in the home builders index and the y/y change in single-family housing starts.
The index of single-family home sales was unchanged (+12.1% y/y) at 65. Offsetting this stability, however, was a 4.7% decline (+3.4% y/y) in the index of expected sales during the next six months. It was the lowest level in twelve months.
Home builders reported that their traffic index improved 10.3% following three straight months of decline.
The housing market index stability reflected little change throughout the country. In the West, the index held steady m/m (+24.1% y/y) while the index for the Midwest also was stable m/m (-5.0% y/y). The reading for the Northeast improved 2.2% (24.3% y/y) and the index in the South rose 3.5% (9.3% y/y).
The NAHB has compiled the Housing Market Index since 1985. It reflects survey questions asking builders to rate market conditions as "good," "fair," "poor" or "very high" to "very low." The figure is thus a diffusion index with numerical results over 50 indicating a predominance of "good" readings. The weights assigned to the individual index components are .5920 for single-family detached sales, present time, .1358 for single-family detached sales, next six months and .2722 for traffic of prospective buyers. The results are included in Haver's SURVEYS database. The expectations figure is available in Haver's MMSAMER database.
|National Association of Home Builders||Mar||Feb||Jan||Mar'15||2015||2014||2013|
|Composite Housing Market Index, SA (All Good=100)||58||58||61||52||59||52||51|
|Single-Family Sales: Present||65||65||68||58||64||56||55|
|Single-Family Sales: Next Six Months||61||64||64||59||66||61||58|
|Traffic of Prospective Buyers||43||39||44||37||43||39||39|