- Weekly: **Unemployment Initial Claims Data have been revised**
- US: Housing Starts by State and Region (Feb)
- CPB World Trade Monitor (Jan)
- CPB World Trade Monitor (Jan)
- France: Registered Unemployed & Job Vacancies (Feb)
- US: Household Employment for States and Regions (Feb)
- US: Wholesale Trade Revisions, Advance Durable Goods (Feb)
- Manufacturing Survey - Markit US (Flash - Mar), Composite Survey - US (Flash - Mar), Services Survey - US (Flash - Mar)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
Correction to Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims
The Department of Labor has issued a correction to yesterday's annual revision to seasonally adjusted weekly unemployment claims...
EMU PMIs Are Off to the Races...Farewell Mediocrity?
The PMI rankings for the manufacturing and service sector PMIs in the EMU are suddenly off the chart...
U.S. New Home Sales Improve While Prices Decline
Sales of new single-family homes increased 6.1% (12.8% y/y) during February to 592,000 units (AR)...
Kansas City Federal Reserve Factory Index Strengthens; Expectations Surge
The Kansas City Fed reported that its index of regional manufacturing sector business activity increased to 20 during March...
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Rise
Initial claims for unemployment insurance increased to 258,000 (-3.0% y/y) during the week ended March 18...
U.K. Retail Looks Less Bulletproof
For the most part, the assessments embodied in the March survey from the UK's CBI are being taken as being upbeat...
by Tom Moeller March 17, 2016
The Conference Board's Index of Leading Economic Indicators improved 0.1% during February (2.3% y/y), following declines during the prior two months. The improvement fell short of expectations in the Action Economics Forecast Survey for a 0.2% rise. The three-month change in the index fell to -1.6% (AR), its weakest reading since August 2012. Fewer building permits, lower stock prices, a weaker ISM new orders index, fewer nondefense capital goods orders and lower consumer expectations for business & economic conditions accounted for the decline. These losses were partially offset by a steeper interest rate yield curve, the leading credit index and improved new orders for consumer goods.
The coincident index nudged 0.1% higher (1.8% y/y) after an unrevised 0.3% rise in January. It was the weakest gain in three months. Three-month growth improved, however, to 2.1% (AR), its best since October. Nonfarm payrolls, personal income less transfers and manufacturing & trade sales contributed to last month's rise, but industrial production fell.
The lagging index increased 0.4% (3.8% y/y) after an unrevised 0.1% gain. Three-month growth slowed to 2.0% (AR), the weakest rate since June 2013. More C&I loans, a stronger services CPI and firmer unit labor costs contributed positively to the index rise last month.
The ratio of coincident to lagging indicators also is a leading indicator of economic activity. It measures excesses in the economy relative to its ongoing performance. This ratio declined to its lowest level of the economic expansion.
The Conference Board figures are available in Haver's BCI database; the components are available there, and most are also in USECON. The forecast figures for the Consensus are in the AS1REPNA database. Visit the Conference Board's site for coverage of leading indicator series from around the world.
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