- Korea: Housing Price Index (Apr)
- US: Consumer Sentiment (Apr-final), GDP (Q1 Adv), ECI (Q1)
- Consumer Sentiment Detail (Apr-final)
- US: Selected NIPA Tables (Q1-Adv), Summary key Source Data (Q1)
- Canada: GDP by Industry (Feb), Industrial Product Prices (Mar)
- *Taiwan National House Price Indexes Rebased to 2016=100.*
- Euro area: HICP (Apr-Flash), ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (Q2)
- Italy: CPI, HICP (Apr-Prelim)
- Brazil: Sao Paolo Capacity Utilization (Mar);Mexico: Debt (Mar);
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Employment Cost Index Has Stronger Gain
Lifted by outsized rises in several industries, the employment cost index for civilian workers rose 0.8% (2.4% y/y) during Q1'17...
Chicago Purchasing Managers Index Strengthens
The Chicago Purchasing Managers Business Barometer Index for April increased to 58.3 from 57.7 in March...
EMU Money and Credit Perk Up
There is some noticeable acceleration in EMU money and credit growth...
Durable Goods Orders Improvement Moderates
New orders for durable goods rose 0.7% (4.5% y/y) during March...
U.S. Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Increase
Initial unemployment claims for unemployment insurance rose to 257,000 during the week ended April 22...
U.S. Pending Home Sales Ease
The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported that pending home sales slipped 0.8% ((+0.8% y/y) during March...
by Tom Moeller March 25, 2016
Economic growth was greater than previously estimated during Q4. The revised 1.4% increase (1.9% y/y) compared to last month's estimate of 1.0% and the advance estimate of a 0.7% rise. A 1.0% gain was expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Economic growth during all of last year remained steady at 2.4%.
Reported for the first time, after tax corporate profits without inventory valuation & capital consumption adjustments declined 8.1% (-3.6% y/y), the fastest decline since Q1 2011. For all of last year, profits increased 3.3%, following negligible growth during 2014 & 2013.
Consumer spending accounted for much of the upward revision to GDP. Its 2.4% gain was raised from 2.0%, primarily as growth in service spending was increased to 2.8%. Recreation services spending jumped 14.2% (3.5% y/y) and restaurant & accommodations spending grew 4.4% (4.0% y/y), but housing & utilities outlays fell 1.5% (+0.5% y/y). Durable goods spending grew at an 3.8% rate as recreational good & vehicles rose 13.1% (9.5% y/y). Home furnishings & household equipment purchase grew 5.4% (6.0% y/y), but motor vehicle buying declined 5.7% (+0.7% y/y). Nondurable goods purchases improved just 0.6% growth (2.4% y/y), held back by a 2.5% decline (+2.0% y/y) in gasoline, heating oil and other energy goods purchases.
Business fixed investment spending declined at a little-revised 2.1% rate as spending on structures fell 5.1% (-3.5% y/y). Equipment spending fell 2.1% (+2.5% y/y), but intellectual property product purchases eased just 0.1% (+3.6% y/y). Residential investment strengthened 10.1% (9.4% y/y), revised from 7.9%. Government spending gained only 0.1% (1.1% y/y), held back by a 1.2% decline (+1.2% y/y) in state & local. Spending on national defense rose 2.8% (0.7% y/y).
Inventory investment sapped 0.2 percentage points from GDP growth, revised from 0.1 point. Net exports had a negative 0.1 percentage point effect on growth, revised from -0.3% points. The contribution was lessened by a 2.0% decline (-0.6% y/y) in exports, instead of -2.7%, and a 0.7% drop (+2.9% y/y) in imports, not just a slight decline.
The GDP price index rose at an unrevised 0.9% rate (1.1% y/y). The gain reflected a 0.3% rise (0.5% y/y) in the personal consumption price index. The nondurable goods price index fell 3.5% (-2.8% y/y) as gasoline prices declined. The durable goods price index declined 1.5% (-1.6% y/y) but services prices rose 1.9% (1.9% y/y). The price index for nonresidential fixed investment improved 0.4% but was unchanged y/y. The residential investment price index rose 2.1% (0.9% y/y).
The GDP figures can be found in Haver's USECON and USNA database. USNA contains virtually all of the Bureau of Economic Analysis' detail in the national accounts, including the integrated economic accounts and the recently added GDP data for U.S. Territories. The Action Economics consensus estimates can be found in AS1REPNA.
|Chained 2009 $ (%, AR)||Q4'15 (3rd Estimate)||Q4'15 (2nd Estimate)||Q4'15 (Advance Estimate)||Q3'15||Q2'15||Q4 Y/Y||2015||2014||2013|
|Gross Domestic Product||1.4||1.0||0.7||2.0||3.9||1.9||2.4||2.4||1.5|
|Foreign Trade Effect||-0.1||-0.3||-0.5||-0.3||0.2||-0.5||-0.6||-0.1||0.2|
|Domestic Final Sales||1.7||1.4||1.6||2.9||3.7||2.5||2.8||2.8||1.2|
|Personal Consumption Expenditures||2.4||2.0||2.2||3.0||3.6||2.7||3.1||2.7||1.7|
|Business Fixed Investment||-2.1||-1.9||-1.8||2.6||4.1||1.5||2.9||6.2||3.0|
|Chain-Type Price Index|
|Personal Consumption Expenditures||0.3||0.4||0.1||1.3||2.2||0.5||0.3||1.4||1.4|