- Weekly: **Unemployment Initial Claims Data have been revised**
- US: Housing Starts by State and Region (Feb)
- CPB World Trade Monitor (Jan)
- CPB World Trade Monitor (Jan)
- France: Registered Unemployed & Job Vacancies (Feb)
- US: Household Employment for States and Regions (Feb)
- US: Wholesale Trade Revisions, Advance Durable Goods (Feb)
- Manufacturing Survey - Markit US (Flash - Mar), Composite Survey - US (Flash - Mar), Services Survey - US (Flash - Mar)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
Correction to Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims
The Department of Labor has issued a correction to yesterday's annual revision to seasonally adjusted weekly unemployment claims...
EMU PMIs Are Off to the Races...Farewell Mediocrity?
The PMI rankings for the manufacturing and service sector PMIs in the EMU are suddenly off the chart...
U.S. New Home Sales Improve While Prices Decline
Sales of new single-family homes increased 6.1% (12.8% y/y) during February to 592,000 units (AR)...
Kansas City Federal Reserve Factory Index Strengthens; Expectations Surge
The Kansas City Fed reported that its index of regional manufacturing sector business activity increased to 20 during March...
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Rise
Initial claims for unemployment insurance increased to 258,000 (-3.0% y/y) during the week ended March 18...
U.K. Retail Looks Less Bulletproof
For the most part, the assessments embodied in the March survey from the UK's CBI are being taken as being upbeat...
by Tom Moeller March 25, 2016
Economic growth was greater than previously estimated during Q4. The revised 1.4% increase (1.9% y/y) compared to last month's estimate of 1.0% and the advance estimate of a 0.7% rise. A 1.0% gain was expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Economic growth during all of last year remained steady at 2.4%.
Reported for the first time, after tax corporate profits without inventory valuation & capital consumption adjustments declined 8.1% (-3.6% y/y), the fastest decline since Q1 2011. For all of last year, profits increased 3.3%, following negligible growth during 2014 & 2013.
Consumer spending accounted for much of the upward revision to GDP. Its 2.4% gain was raised from 2.0%, primarily as growth in service spending was increased to 2.8%. Recreation services spending jumped 14.2% (3.5% y/y) and restaurant & accommodations spending grew 4.4% (4.0% y/y), but housing & utilities outlays fell 1.5% (+0.5% y/y). Durable goods spending grew at an 3.8% rate as recreational good & vehicles rose 13.1% (9.5% y/y). Home furnishings & household equipment purchase grew 5.4% (6.0% y/y), but motor vehicle buying declined 5.7% (+0.7% y/y). Nondurable goods purchases improved just 0.6% growth (2.4% y/y), held back by a 2.5% decline (+2.0% y/y) in gasoline, heating oil and other energy goods purchases.
Business fixed investment spending declined at a little-revised 2.1% rate as spending on structures fell 5.1% (-3.5% y/y). Equipment spending fell 2.1% (+2.5% y/y), but intellectual property product purchases eased just 0.1% (+3.6% y/y). Residential investment strengthened 10.1% (9.4% y/y), revised from 7.9%. Government spending gained only 0.1% (1.1% y/y), held back by a 1.2% decline (+1.2% y/y) in state & local. Spending on national defense rose 2.8% (0.7% y/y).
Inventory investment sapped 0.2 percentage points from GDP growth, revised from 0.1 point. Net exports had a negative 0.1 percentage point effect on growth, revised from -0.3% points. The contribution was lessened by a 2.0% decline (-0.6% y/y) in exports, instead of -2.7%, and a 0.7% drop (+2.9% y/y) in imports, not just a slight decline.
The GDP price index rose at an unrevised 0.9% rate (1.1% y/y). The gain reflected a 0.3% rise (0.5% y/y) in the personal consumption price index. The nondurable goods price index fell 3.5% (-2.8% y/y) as gasoline prices declined. The durable goods price index declined 1.5% (-1.6% y/y) but services prices rose 1.9% (1.9% y/y). The price index for nonresidential fixed investment improved 0.4% but was unchanged y/y. The residential investment price index rose 2.1% (0.9% y/y).
The GDP figures can be found in Haver's USECON and USNA database. USNA contains virtually all of the Bureau of Economic Analysis' detail in the national accounts, including the integrated economic accounts and the recently added GDP data for U.S. Territories. The Action Economics consensus estimates can be found in AS1REPNA.
|Chained 2009 $ (%, AR)||Q4'15 (3rd Estimate)||Q4'15 (2nd Estimate)||Q4'15 (Advance Estimate)||Q3'15||Q2'15||Q4 Y/Y||2015||2014||2013|
|Gross Domestic Product||1.4||1.0||0.7||2.0||3.9||1.9||2.4||2.4||1.5|
|Foreign Trade Effect||-0.1||-0.3||-0.5||-0.3||0.2||-0.5||-0.6||-0.1||0.2|
|Domestic Final Sales||1.7||1.4||1.6||2.9||3.7||2.5||2.8||2.8||1.2|
|Personal Consumption Expenditures||2.4||2.0||2.2||3.0||3.6||2.7||3.1||2.7||1.7|
|Business Fixed Investment||-2.1||-1.9||-1.8||2.6||4.1||1.5||2.9||6.2||3.0|
|Chain-Type Price Index|
|Personal Consumption Expenditures||0.3||0.4||0.1||1.3||2.2||0.5||0.3||1.4||1.4|