- Weekly: **Unemployment Initial Claims Data have been revised**
- US: Housing Starts by State and Region (Feb)
- CPB World Trade Monitor (Jan)
- CPB World Trade Monitor (Jan)
- France: Registered Unemployed & Job Vacancies (Feb)
- US: Household Employment for States and Regions (Feb)
- US: Wholesale Trade Revisions, Advance Durable Goods (Feb)
- Manufacturing Survey - Markit US (Flash - Mar), Composite Survey - US (Flash - Mar), Services Survey - US (Flash - Mar)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
Correction to Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims
The Department of Labor has issued a correction to yesterday's annual revision to seasonally adjusted weekly unemployment claims...
EMU PMIs Are Off to the Races...Farewell Mediocrity?
The PMI rankings for the manufacturing and service sector PMIs in the EMU are suddenly off the chart...
U.S. New Home Sales Improve While Prices Decline
Sales of new single-family homes increased 6.1% (12.8% y/y) during February to 592,000 units (AR)...
Kansas City Federal Reserve Factory Index Strengthens; Expectations Surge
The Kansas City Fed reported that its index of regional manufacturing sector business activity increased to 20 during March...
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Rise
Initial claims for unemployment insurance increased to 258,000 (-3.0% y/y) during the week ended March 18...
U.K. Retail Looks Less Bulletproof
For the most part, the assessments embodied in the March survey from the UK's CBI are being taken as being upbeat...
by Tom Moeller March 29, 2016
The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index during March increased 2.3% (-5.1% y/y) to 96.2 from 94.0 in February, revised from 92.2. The latest figure compared to an expected 93.5 in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. During the last ten years, there has been a 70% correlation between the level of confidence and the y/y change in real consumer spending.
A 6.0% rebound to 84.7 (-11.8% y/y) in the expectations reading to 84.7 was behind the rise in the overall index. In contrast, the present situations figure fell 1.3% (+3.7% y/y) to 113.5, repeating its February fall.
Expectations that business conditions would be improved in six months prompted the rebound in the overall expectations index. Expectations for more jobs followed, although a lessened percentage thought that income would improve. To the downside, consumers perception that current business conditions were good fell to the lowest percentage since August. In contrast, the appraisal that jobs were hard to get increased to 26.6% of respondents, the highest fraction since July. The percentage who thought that jobs were plentiful increased to 25.4%, the highest level since just before the recession.
Expectations for the inflation rate held steady m/m at 4.7%, the lowest level since early 2007. Higher interest rates were expected by a sharply reduced 59.8% of respondents.
Plans to buy a new home deteriorated to the lowest level since August, but major appliance buying plans recovered much of the prior month's decline. Intentions to buy a new car declined, however, to the lowest point since July.
By age group, confidence amongst respondents under age 35 rebounded to the highest point in twelve months. Confidence amongst those aged 35-54 years eased to a four-month low, and confidence amongst respondents over age 55 rose slightly. Both of these latter figures remained sharply lower versus last year's highs.
The Consumer Confidence data is available in Haver's CBDB database. The total indexes appear in USECON, and the market expectations are in AS1REPNA.
The Outlook, Uncertainty, and Monetary Policy is the title of today's speech by Fed Chair Janet L. Yellen, and it can be found here.
|Conference Board (SA, 1985=100)||Mar||Feb||Jan||Y/Y %||2015||2014||2013|
|Consumer Confidence Index||96.2||94.0||97.8||-5.1||98.0||86.9||73.2|
|Consumer Confidence By Age Group|
|Under 35 Years||124.5||112.1||123.7||-0.3||116.0||106.6||93.1|
|Aged 35-54 Years||100.3||101.2||102.1||-4.3||103.9||92.4||76.8|
|Over 55 Years||81.4||80.9||83.1||-9.3||84.0||73.8||61.2|