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Economy in Brief

U.S. ADP Reports Hiring Growth Remains Steady
by Tom Moeller  March 30, 2016

The ADP/Moody's National Employment Report indicated that nonfarm private sector payrolls rose 200,000 (2.1% y/y) during March following a 205,000 February increase, revised from 214,000. The latest gain was firmer than expectations for a 185,000 rise in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. During the last ten years, there has been a 96% correlation between the change in the ADP figure and the change in nonfarm private sector payrolls as measured by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The ADP Research Institute survey is based on ADP's business payroll transaction system covering 411,000 companies and nearly 24 million employees. The data are processed by Moody's Analytics Inc., then calibrated and aligned with the BLS establishment survey data. The ADP data cover private sector employment, not government.

Small businesses led last month's job growth with an 86,000 rise (2.1% y/y) following a 68,000 increase. Medium-sized businesses added 75,000 workers (1.9% y/y) after a 60,000 rise. Large business payrolls improved 39,000 (2.3% y/y), the weakest gain since October.

Service industry hiring increased 191,000 (2.4% y/y), about the same monthly rate as during the last year. Payrolls in trade, transportation & utilities industries improved 42,000 (1.7% y/y), the strongest rise in nine months. The number of professional & business services increased a weakened 28,000 (2.8% y/y). The number of financial activities jobs rose 14,000 (1.9% y/y) after an 8,000 increase.

The pace of hiring in the goods-producing sector of the economy remained soft at 9,000 (0.6% y/y). Construction sector employment increased a firm 17,000 (3.7% y/y). Factory sector jobs improved 3,000 (0.1% y/y), but on balance fell through the quarter.

The ADP National Employment Report data are maintained in Haver's USECON database; historical figures date back to April 2001 for the total and industry breakdown, and back to January 2005 for the business size breakout. The expectation figure is available in Haver's AS1REPNA database.

ADP/Moody's National Employment Report Mar Feb Jan Mar Y/Y 2015 2014 2013
Nonfarm Private Payroll Employment (m/m chg, 000s) 200 205 193 2.1% 2.3% 2.2% 1.9%
 Small Payroll (1-49) 86 68 77 2.1 2.6 2.1 1.9
 Medium Payroll (50-499) 75 60 73 1.9 2.3 2.8 2.2
 Large Payroll (>500) 39 77 43 2.3 1.7 1.6 1.5
Goods-Producing 9 2 15 0.6 1.8 2.4 1.8
  Construction 17 24 23 3.7 4.5 4.7 3.7
  Manufacturing 3 -9 2 0.1 1.1 1.3 0.8
Service-Producing 191 204 178 2.4 2.4 2.2 1.9
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