- China: Industrial Profits (Mar); Philippines: Tourist Arrivals (Feb); Korea: GDP (Q1)
- New Zealand: Tourism Expenditure, International Reserves, RBNZ Analytical Accounts and Statistical Balance Sheet (Mar); Australia: Import and Export Price Indexes (Q1)
- Japan: Input Output Prices, International Trade, Lease Contracts (Mar), First 10 Days Trade (Apr)
- France: INSEE Household Survey (Apr), Registered Unemployed & Job
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Gasoline Prices Are Little-Changed; Crude Oil Falls
Regular gasoline prices of $2.45 per gallon last week (13.3% y/y)...
Japan's METI Indexes Show Ongoing Gains
The services sector is assessed by the METI indexes where it is named the 'tertiary sector.' That sector index rose to 104.1 in February...
U.S. New Home Sales & Prices Strengthen
Sales of new single-family homes increased 5.8% (15.6% y/y) during March to 621,000...
U.S. Consumer Confidence Backpedals
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index fell 3.7% during April (+27.0% y/y) to 120.3...
U.S. FHFA House Price Index Regains Strength
The FHFA U.S. house prices increased 0.8% during February (6.5% y/y)...
French Manufacturing and Service Sectors Weaken But Stay on Trend or Hold Recent Gains
The French manufacturing sector trend index is down to 1 in April from 3 in March...
by Tom Moeller March 31, 2016
Chicago purchasing managers reported that their March Business Barometer Index jumped to 53.6, after declining to 47.6 in February. The latest reading beat expectations for a smaller rise to 49.4 in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
Haver Analytics constructs an ISM-Adjusted Index using the Chicago numbers, comparable to the overall ISM index to be released tomorrow. Our figure increased to 50.8, but has been moving sideways for a year. During the last ten years, there has been a 61% correlation between the adjusted Chicago Purchasing Managers index and real GDP growth.
A higher employment figure helped the overall index rebound as it jumped to the highest level since April 2015. During the last ten years, there has been an 81% correlation between the employment figure and the m/m change in factory sector employment. The production & new orders measures increased. The order backlog reading strengthened to the highest level since January 2015. The inventories figure continued its sideways movement, but the supplier deliveries measure fell to nearly a three year low.
The index of prices paid recovered to the highest level in three months, but on balance still indicated falling prices. Nine percent (NSA) of respondents paid higher prices while 15 percent paid less.
The MNI Chicago Report is produced by MNI/Deutsche Borse Group in partnership with ISM-Chicago. The survey covers a sample of over 200 purchasing professionals in the Chicago area with a monthly response rate of about 50%. The ISM-Adjusted headline index is calculated by Haver Analytics using these data to construct a figure with the ISM methodology. The figures can be found in Haver's SURVEYS database. The Consensus expectations figure is available in AS1REPNA.
|Chicago Purchasing Managers Index (%, SA)||Mar||Feb||Jan||Mar '15||2015||2014||2013|
|ISM-Adjusted General Business Barometer||50.8||46.7||52.4||52.7||51.6||59.3||54.2|
|General Business Barometer||53.6||47.6||55.6||49.3||50.3||60.7||56.0|