- US: IIP (Q4)
- Zambia: BOP (Q4); Israel: Credit Card Purchases (Feb); UAE: CPI (Feb); Saudi Arabia: GDP (Q4-Prelim)
- Hungary: Employment (Feb); Bulgaria: Business Survey (Mar); Kazakhstan: Consolidated Budget (Feb)
- Sweden: Consumer Confidence, Business Tendency Survey, Public Finance (Mar); Iceland: PPI (Feb)
- Spain: Mortgage Market (Jan), Order Book Forecast (Mar)
- Italy: ISTAT Business & Consumer Survey (Mar)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Energy Product Prices Remain Under Pressure
Regular gasoline prices held steady at $2.32 per gallon last week (12.1% y/y) for the third straight week...
German Federal Debt Levels Fall
German debt level fell outright in Q4 2016 as the ratio of federal debt-to-GDP also fell...
NABE 2018 Forecast: Modest Improvement in Economic Growth & Higher Inflation
The NABE expects 2.5% real U.S. economic growth in 2018 compared to 2.3% forecast for 2017...
Texas Factory Sector Activity Remains Strong
The Dallas Fed indicated in its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey that the General Business Activity Index eased during March...
EMU Money and Credit Growth Are Less Than Impressive Than Euro-PMIs
EMU nominal money supply growth is slightly higher over three months, but credit growth in the EMU is slower...
Durable Goods Orders Strengthened by Another Jump in Aircraft
New orders for durable goods rose 1.7% (5.0% y/y) during February...
by Tom Moeller April 21, 2016
The National Activity Index from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago fell to -0.44 during March. It was the weakest reading since January 2014, suggesting that economic growth was slightly below trend. At -0.18, the three month moving average has been in negative territory since February 2015. During the last ten years, there has been a 77% correlation between the Chicago Fed Index and the q/q change in real GDP.
The Employment, Unemployment & Hours index fell sharply m/m into negative territory for the first time in six months. The Production & Income reading eased to -0.31, the lowest point since November. The Personal Consumption & Housing figure fell m/m to -0.09, its weakest reading since January. Offsetting some of these negative influences, the Sales, Orders & Inventories figure improved to 0.00, a modest rebound from February's decline. The Fed reported that 27 of the 85 component series made positive contributions to the total while 58 made negative contributions.
The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of national economic activity. It is constructed to have an average value of zero and a standard deviation of one. Since economic activity tends toward trend growth rate over time, a positive index reading corresponds to growth above trend and a negative index reading corresponds to growth below trend.
The Chicago Federal Reserve figures are available in Haver's SURVEYS database.
The Drag of Energy and Manufacturing on Productivity Growth from the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City is available here.
|Chicago Federal Reserve Bank||Mar||Feb||Jan||Mar '15||2015||2014||2013|
|National Activity Index (percent)||-0.44||-0.38||0.28||-0.19||-0.17||0.16||-0.08|
|3-Month Moving Average||-0.18||-0.11||-0.13||-0.27||--||--||--|
|Personal Consumption & Housing||-0.09||-0.07||-0.11||-0.10||-0.09||-0.11||-0.15|
|Employment, Unemployment & Hours||-0.04||0.02||0.19||-0.05||0.07||0.18||0.09|
|Production & Income||-0.31||-0.30||0.18||-0.10||-0.14||0.06||-0.04|
|Sales, Orders & Inventories||0.00||-0.03||0.02||0.06||-0.02||0.04||0.02|