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Economy in Brief
German PPI Inflation Downshifts
In the short term, much of what happens to PPI inflation is determined by oil prices...
Widespread Gain for U.S. Leading Economic Indicators in July
The Conference Board's Composite Index of Leading Economic Indicators increased 0.3% m/m (3.9% y/y) in July...
U.S. Industrial Production Increases Modestly; Factory Output Slips
Industrial production improved 0.2% during July (2.2% y/y)...
Philadelphia Fed Factory Conditions Index Eases
The Philadelphia Fed that its General Factory Sector Business Conditions Index slipped to 18.9 during August...
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Fall
Initial unemployment insurance applications declined to 232,000 (-9.8% y/y) during the week ended August 12...
U.S. Housing Starts & Building Permits Decline
Total housing starts fell 4.8% to 1.155 million units (AR, -5.4% y/y) during July...
by Tom Moeller April 26, 2016
The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index during April declined 2.0% (-0.1% y/y) to 94.2 and reversed most of a March increase to 96.1, revised from 96.2. The latest figure compared to 95.8 in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. During the last ten years, there has been a 70% correlation between the level of confidence and the y/y change in real consumer spending.
The expectations reading declined 5.1% (-9.0% y/y) to 79.3 after a 4.6 rise. In contrast, the present situations figure rose 1.3% (10.8% y/y) to 116.4 following two months of decline.
Expectations that business conditions would be improved in six months declined sharply to the lowest level since October 2011. Expectations for more jobs also fell as did expectations that income would improve. Offsetting these declines, the appraisal of current business conditions rose to the highest level in three months. The percentage who thought that business conditions were bad fell slightly. The perception that jobs were hard to get, however, deteriorated slightly to 22.7% of respondents, the lowest level since August. The percentage who thought that jobs were plentiful also eased.
Expectations for the inflation rate held steady m/m at 4.8%, nearly the lowest level since early 2007. Higher interest rates were expected by a somewhat higher 61.5% of respondents, though that remained down sharply versus three months ago.
Plans to buy a new home rebounded following March's sharp decline, but major appliance buying plans deteriorated slightly. Intentions to buy a new car rose slightly.
By age group, confidence amongst respondents under age 35 improved to the highest point since March 2015. Confidence amongst those aged 35-54 years eased to a twelve-month low, and confidence amongst respondents over age 55 fell to roughly a five month low. Both of these latter figures remained sharply lower versus last year's highs.
The Consumer Confidence data is available in Haver's CBDB database. The total indexes appear in USECON, and the market expectations are in AS1REPNA.
| Conference Board (SA, 1985=100) | Apr | Mar | Feb | Y/Y % | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Confidence Index | 94.2 | 96.1 | 94.0 | -0.1 | 98.0 | 86.9 | 73.2 |
| Present Situation | 116.4 | 114.9 | 115.0 | 10.8 | 111.7 | 87.4 | 67.6 |
| Expectations | 79.3 | 83.6 | 79.9 | -9.0 | 88.8 | 86.6 | 77.0 |
| Consumer Confidence By Age Group | |||||||
| Under 35 Years | 123.9 | 123.6 | 112.1 | 7.6 | 116.0 | 106.6 | 93.1 |
| Aged 35-54 Years | 98.7 | 101.4 | 101.2 | 2.6 | 103.9 | 92.4 | 76.8 |
| Over 55 Years | 78.4 | 80.1 | 80.9 | -2.9 | 84.0 | 73.8 | 61.2 |
