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Economy in Brief
EMU and Japan; EMU Flash PMIs Make Small Recovery
PMIs in June in the EMU area showed some respite from the steady decline in recent months...
French Manufacturing Gives Steady Signal As Services Edge Ahead
The French manufacturing sector gives a steady signal in June but at a level that is off-peak...
U.S. Leading Economic Indicators' Rate of Increase Eases
The Conference Board's Composite Index of Leading Economic Indicators improved 0.2% (6.1% y/y) during May...
Philadelphia Fed Factory Conditions Plunge
The Philadelphia Fed reported that its General Factory Sector Business Conditions Index retreated to 19.9 during June...
U.S. FHFA House Price Index Improves Minimally
The FHFA U.S. house price index nudged 0.1% higher (6.4% y/y) during April...
by Tom Moeller April 26, 2016
The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index during April declined 2.0% (-0.1% y/y) to 94.2 and reversed most of a March increase to 96.1, revised from 96.2. The latest figure compared to 95.8 in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. During the last ten years, there has been a 70% correlation between the level of confidence and the y/y change in real consumer spending.
The expectations reading declined 5.1% (-9.0% y/y) to 79.3 after a 4.6 rise. In contrast, the present situations figure rose 1.3% (10.8% y/y) to 116.4 following two months of decline.
Expectations that business conditions would be improved in six months declined sharply to the lowest level since October 2011. Expectations for more jobs also fell as did expectations that income would improve. Offsetting these declines, the appraisal of current business conditions rose to the highest level in three months. The percentage who thought that business conditions were bad fell slightly. The perception that jobs were hard to get, however, deteriorated slightly to 22.7% of respondents, the lowest level since August. The percentage who thought that jobs were plentiful also eased.
Expectations for the inflation rate held steady m/m at 4.8%, nearly the lowest level since early 2007. Higher interest rates were expected by a somewhat higher 61.5% of respondents, though that remained down sharply versus three months ago.
Plans to buy a new home rebounded following March's sharp decline, but major appliance buying plans deteriorated slightly. Intentions to buy a new car rose slightly.
By age group, confidence amongst respondents under age 35 improved to the highest point since March 2015. Confidence amongst those aged 35-54 years eased to a twelve-month low, and confidence amongst respondents over age 55 fell to roughly a five month low. Both of these latter figures remained sharply lower versus last year's highs.
The Consumer Confidence data is available in Haver's CBDB database. The total indexes appear in USECON, and the market expectations are in AS1REPNA.
| Conference Board (SA, 1985=100) | Apr | Mar | Feb | Y/Y % | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Confidence Index | 94.2 | 96.1 | 94.0 | -0.1 | 98.0 | 86.9 | 73.2 |
| Present Situation | 116.4 | 114.9 | 115.0 | 10.8 | 111.7 | 87.4 | 67.6 |
| Expectations | 79.3 | 83.6 | 79.9 | -9.0 | 88.8 | 86.6 | 77.0 |
| Consumer Confidence By Age Group | |||||||
| Under 35 Years | 123.9 | 123.6 | 112.1 | 7.6 | 116.0 | 106.6 | 93.1 |
| Aged 35-54 Years | 98.7 | 101.4 | 101.2 | 2.6 | 103.9 | 92.4 | 76.8 |
| Over 55 Years | 78.4 | 80.1 | 80.9 | -2.9 | 84.0 | 73.8 | 61.2 |
