- US: Advance Durable Goods, Advance Trade & Inventories (Mar)
- Canada: Payroll Employment, Earnings, & Hours (Feb)
- Spain: Advanced HICP & CPI, Construction Business Survey Press (Apr)
- Belgium: CPI (Apr)
- Brazil: PPI (Mar)
- Germany: GfK Consumer Climate Survey, State CPI: Bavaria, Saxony, Berlin, Hesse, North Rhine-Westphalia, Brandenburg (Apr)
- Building Permits (Feb)
- UK: Motor Vehicle Production (Mar)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Gasoline Prices Are Little-Changed; Crude Oil Falls
Regular gasoline prices of $2.45 per gallon last week (13.3% y/y)...
Japan's METI Indexes Show Ongoing Gains
The services sector is assessed by the METI indexes where it is named the 'tertiary sector.' That sector index rose to 104.1 in February...
U.S. New Home Sales & Prices Strengthen
Sales of new single-family homes increased 5.8% (15.6% y/y) during March to 621,000...
U.S. Consumer Confidence Backpedals
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index fell 3.7% during April (+27.0% y/y) to 120.3...
U.S. FHFA House Price Index Regains Strength
The FHFA U.S. house prices increased 0.8% during February (6.5% y/y)...
French Manufacturing and Service Sectors Weaken But Stay on Trend or Hold Recent Gains
The French manufacturing sector trend index is down to 1 in April from 3 in March...
by Tom Moeller April 28, 2016
Growth in the U.S. economy was barely positive last quarter. Real GDP improved 0.5% (SAAR, 1.9% y/y), the weakest rise since a decline in Q1'14. The advance was held back by weaker consumer spending growth, a decline in business investment as well as heightened subtractions from foreign trade & inventories. The increase compared to expectations for a 0.7% rise in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The GDP price index increased at a 0.7% rate (1.3% y/y), its slowest rise in a year.
Consumer spending growth of 1.9% last quarter was its weakest since Q1'15. Growth was held back by a 12.4% decline (-1.7% y/y) in motor vehicle & parts purchases as well as a 2.2% drop (+1.4% y/y) in apparel buying. To the upside was spending on recreational goods & vehicles, which rose 8.5% (10.1% y/y). Spending on home furnishings & appliances increased 4.4% (5.8% y/y) and gasoline buying rose 3.7% (1.4% y/y). In the services area, spending growth remained steady at 2.7% (2.6% y/y). It reflected a fairly constant 6.2% advance (6.0% y/y) in transportation, but a diminished 1.1% gain (3.6% y/y) in restaurant & accommodations. Spending on housing & utilities grew 2.2% (0.2% y/y).
Business spending declined at a 5.9% rate, its second consecutive fall, held back by declining corporate profitability. Investment in structures fell 10.6% (-4.4% y/y). Equipment investment fell 8.6% (-0.3% y/y) while intellectual property product buying gained 1.7% (+2.2% y/y). Continuing to be strong was residential investment which grew 14.9% (10.6% y/y).
Spending by governments grew at a 1.2% rate. Federal spending declined 1.6% (+0.2% y/y), held back by a 3.6% decline (-0.5% y/y) in defense buying. State & local government purchases grew at an accelerated 2.9% rate (2.2% y/y).
Deterioration in the foreign trade accounts subtracted 0.3% percentage points from overall economic growth, the largest subtraction in a year. Exports declined 2.6% (+0.3% y/y), its second consecutive fall. Imports inched 0.2% higher (1.2% y/y), powered by a 3.7% rise (3.5% y/y) in services, with more U.S. citizens traveling abroad. Inventory decumulation subtracted 0.4 percentage points from GDP growth, the third consecutive subtraction.
Pricing behavior was constrained by economic weakness. The GDP price index growth of 0.7% reflected a stable 0.3% rise in the personal spending price index. Nondurable goods prices fell 5.6% (-1.2% y/y) with the decline in gasoline prices. Durable goods prices fell 1.1% (-1.3% y/y), but services prices rose an improved 2.4% (2.1% y/y). The nonresidential investment price index increased 0.2% both q/q and y/y. Residential investment prices gained 1.9% (1.4% y/y) while government sector prices were little changed (0.6% y/y).
The GDP figures can be found in Haver's USECON and USNA database. USNA contains virtually all of the Bureau of Economic Analysis' detail in the national accounts, including the integrated economic accounts and the recently added GDP data for U.S. Territories. The Action Economics consensus estimates can be found in AS1REPNA.
|Chained 2009 $ (%, AR)||Q1'16 (Advance Estimate)||Q4'15||Q3'15||Q1'16 Y/Y||2015||2014||2013|
|Gross Domestic Product||0.5||1.4||2.0||1.9||2.4||2.4||1.5|
|Foreign Trade Effect||-0.3||-0.1||-0.3||-0.1||-0.6||-0.1||0.2|
|Domestic Final Sales||1.2||1.7||2.9||2.4||2.8||2.8||1.2|
|Personal Consumption Expenditures||1.9||2.4||3.0||2.7||3.1||2.7||1.7|
|Business Fixed Investment||-5.9||-2.1||2.6||-0.4||2.9||6.2||3.0|
|Chain-Type Price Index|
|Personal Consumption Expenditures||0.3||0.3||1.3||1.0||0.3||1.4||1.4|