- Weekly: **Unemployment Initial Claims Data have been revised**
- US: Housing Starts by State and Region (Feb)
- CPB World Trade Monitor (Jan)
- CPB World Trade Monitor (Jan)
- France: Registered Unemployed & Job Vacancies (Feb)
- US: Household Employment for States and Regions (Feb)
- US: Wholesale Trade Revisions, Advance Durable Goods (Feb)
- Manufacturing Survey - Markit US (Flash - Mar), Composite Survey - US (Flash - Mar), Services Survey - US (Flash - Mar)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
Correction to Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims
The Department of Labor has issued a correction to yesterday's annual revision to seasonally adjusted weekly unemployment claims...
EMU PMIs Are Off to the Races...Farewell Mediocrity?
The PMI rankings for the manufacturing and service sector PMIs in the EMU are suddenly off the chart...
U.S. New Home Sales Improve While Prices Decline
Sales of new single-family homes increased 6.1% (12.8% y/y) during February to 592,000 units (AR)...
Kansas City Federal Reserve Factory Index Strengthens; Expectations Surge
The Kansas City Fed reported that its index of regional manufacturing sector business activity increased to 20 during March...
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Rise
Initial claims for unemployment insurance increased to 258,000 (-3.0% y/y) during the week ended March 18...
U.K. Retail Looks Less Bulletproof
For the most part, the assessments embodied in the March survey from the UK's CBI are being taken as being upbeat...
by Tom Moeller April 28, 2016
Growth in the U.S. economy was barely positive last quarter. Real GDP improved 0.5% (SAAR, 1.9% y/y), the weakest rise since a decline in Q1'14. The advance was held back by weaker consumer spending growth, a decline in business investment as well as heightened subtractions from foreign trade & inventories. The increase compared to expectations for a 0.7% rise in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The GDP price index increased at a 0.7% rate (1.3% y/y), its slowest rise in a year.
Consumer spending growth of 1.9% last quarter was its weakest since Q1'15. Growth was held back by a 12.4% decline (-1.7% y/y) in motor vehicle & parts purchases as well as a 2.2% drop (+1.4% y/y) in apparel buying. To the upside was spending on recreational goods & vehicles, which rose 8.5% (10.1% y/y). Spending on home furnishings & appliances increased 4.4% (5.8% y/y) and gasoline buying rose 3.7% (1.4% y/y). In the services area, spending growth remained steady at 2.7% (2.6% y/y). It reflected a fairly constant 6.2% advance (6.0% y/y) in transportation, but a diminished 1.1% gain (3.6% y/y) in restaurant & accommodations. Spending on housing & utilities grew 2.2% (0.2% y/y).
Business spending declined at a 5.9% rate, its second consecutive fall, held back by declining corporate profitability. Investment in structures fell 10.6% (-4.4% y/y). Equipment investment fell 8.6% (-0.3% y/y) while intellectual property product buying gained 1.7% (+2.2% y/y). Continuing to be strong was residential investment which grew 14.9% (10.6% y/y).
Spending by governments grew at a 1.2% rate. Federal spending declined 1.6% (+0.2% y/y), held back by a 3.6% decline (-0.5% y/y) in defense buying. State & local government purchases grew at an accelerated 2.9% rate (2.2% y/y).
Deterioration in the foreign trade accounts subtracted 0.3% percentage points from overall economic growth, the largest subtraction in a year. Exports declined 2.6% (+0.3% y/y), its second consecutive fall. Imports inched 0.2% higher (1.2% y/y), powered by a 3.7% rise (3.5% y/y) in services, with more U.S. citizens traveling abroad. Inventory decumulation subtracted 0.4 percentage points from GDP growth, the third consecutive subtraction.
Pricing behavior was constrained by economic weakness. The GDP price index growth of 0.7% reflected a stable 0.3% rise in the personal spending price index. Nondurable goods prices fell 5.6% (-1.2% y/y) with the decline in gasoline prices. Durable goods prices fell 1.1% (-1.3% y/y), but services prices rose an improved 2.4% (2.1% y/y). The nonresidential investment price index increased 0.2% both q/q and y/y. Residential investment prices gained 1.9% (1.4% y/y) while government sector prices were little changed (0.6% y/y).
The GDP figures can be found in Haver's USECON and USNA database. USNA contains virtually all of the Bureau of Economic Analysis' detail in the national accounts, including the integrated economic accounts and the recently added GDP data for U.S. Territories. The Action Economics consensus estimates can be found in AS1REPNA.
|Chained 2009 $ (%, AR)||Q1'16 (Advance Estimate)||Q4'15||Q3'15||Q1'16 Y/Y||2015||2014||2013|
|Gross Domestic Product||0.5||1.4||2.0||1.9||2.4||2.4||1.5|
|Foreign Trade Effect||-0.3||-0.1||-0.3||-0.1||-0.6||-0.1||0.2|
|Domestic Final Sales||1.2||1.7||2.9||2.4||2.8||2.8||1.2|
|Personal Consumption Expenditures||1.9||2.4||3.0||2.7||3.1||2.7||1.7|
|Business Fixed Investment||-5.9||-2.1||2.6||-0.4||2.9||6.2||3.0|
|Chain-Type Price Index|
|Personal Consumption Expenditures||0.3||0.3||1.3||1.0||0.3||1.4||1.4|