- China: Industrial Profits (Mar); Philippines: Tourist Arrivals (Feb); Korea: GDP (Q1)
- New Zealand: Tourism Expenditure, International Reserves, RBNZ Analytical Accounts and Statistical Balance Sheet (Mar); Australia: Import and Export Price Indexes (Q1)
- Japan: Input Output Prices, International Trade, Lease Contracts (Mar), First 10 Days Trade (Apr)
- France: INSEE Household Survey (Apr), Registered Unemployed & Job
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Gasoline Prices Are Little-Changed; Crude Oil Falls
Regular gasoline prices of $2.45 per gallon last week (13.3% y/y)...
Japan's METI Indexes Show Ongoing Gains
The services sector is assessed by the METI indexes where it is named the 'tertiary sector.' That sector index rose to 104.1 in February...
U.S. New Home Sales & Prices Strengthen
Sales of new single-family homes increased 5.8% (15.6% y/y) during March to 621,000...
U.S. Consumer Confidence Backpedals
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index fell 3.7% during April (+27.0% y/y) to 120.3...
U.S. FHFA House Price Index Regains Strength
The FHFA U.S. house prices increased 0.8% during February (6.5% y/y)...
French Manufacturing and Service Sectors Weaken But Stay on Trend or Hold Recent Gains
The French manufacturing sector trend index is down to 1 in April from 3 in March...
by Tom Moeller April 29, 2016
A firmer job market is lending strength to earnings power. Personal income increased 0.4% during March (4.2% y/y) following a 0.1% uptick in February, revised from 0.2%. A 0.3% increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Wages & salaries increased 0.4% (4.7% y/y) following a 0.1% slip. In other income categories, rental income strengthened 0.8% (7.7% y/y), but proprietors income remained unchanged (3.5% y/y). Transfer payments increased 0.3% (3.7% y/y) as Medicare receipts rose 0.5% (5.3% y/y). Social security payments eased slightly (+2.5% y/y). Unemployment insurance payments declined 1.5% (-7.2% y/y).
Disposable personal income increased 0.4% (4.0% y/y) following February's 0.1% rise. Adjusted for price increases, take-home pay rose 0.3% (3.1% y/y) following 0.2% increases in the prior two months.
Personal consumption expenditures during March increased a minimal 0.1% (3.5% y/y) following two months of 0.2% gain. February's rise was revised from 0.1%. The latest increase fell short of expectations for a 0.2% rise. Spending on durable goods declined 0.6% (+1.3% y/y), leaving Q1 growth at -2.7% (AR). Motor vehicle & parts purchases fell 2.0% (-4.8% y/y), down for the fourth consecutive month. Spending on furniture & appliances offset this decline with a 0.4% rise (3.1% y/y), while recreational goods & vehicles purchases rose 0.2% (6.1% y/y). Nondurable goods spending advanced 0.6% (0.4% y/y), but quarterly purchases declined 4.7% (AR). Clothing & footwear buying declined 0.5% (+0.3% y/y), but gasoline purchases increased 4.5% with higher prices (-17.6% y/y). Food & beverage purchases rose 0.4% (1.0% y/y). In the services area, outlays rose 0.1% (4.8% y/y), the gain held back by a 0.4% decline (+2.8% y/y) in spending on housing & utilities. Health care outlays rose 0.4% (4.5% y/y) while recreation buying gained 0.3% (8.8% y/y). Spending at restaurants & hotels fell 0.6% (+5.5% y/y).
Adjusted for price inflation, personal consumption expenditures remained constant m/m (2.6% y/y) after a 0.3% increase. During Q1, spending rose at a 1.9% annual rate, the weakest rise in a year.
The personal savings rate held steady at 5.4%, but February's rate was lessened to 5.1%. January's rate also was revised down to 5.2%. The Q1 savings rate of 5.2% equaled the level in Q1'15. The level of personal savings rose 12.7% y/y in March.
The chain-type price index rose 0.1%, and the y/y increase of 0.8% compared to a 0.3% rise during all of last year. The price index excluding food & energy also nudged 0.1% higher (1.6% y/y). The service price index gained 0.2% (2.1% y/y). The durable goods index declined 0.3% (-1.6%) while the nondurables price index eased 0.1% (-1.9% y/y).
The personal income & consumption figures are available in Haver's USECON database with detail in the USNA database. The Action Economics figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
A Discussion of Key Secular Trends, Economic Conditions and Monetary Policy by Robert S. Kaplan, President & CEO, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas is available here.
|Personal Income & Outlays (%)||Mar||Feb||Jan||Mar Y/Y||2015||2014||2013|
|Wages & Salaries||0.4||-0.1||0.6||4.7||4.6||5.1||2.7|
|Disposable Personal Income||0.4||0.1||0.4||4.0||3.7||4.2||-0.1|
|Personal Consumption Expenditures||0.1||0.2||0.2||3.5||3.4||4.2||3.1|
|Personal Saving Rate||5.4||5.1||5.2||4.9
|PCE Chain Price Index||0.1||-0.1||0.1||0.8||0.3||1.4||1.4|
|Less Food & Energy||0.1||0.2||0.3||1.6||1.3||1.5||1.5|
|Real Disposable Income||0.3||0.2||0.2||3.1||3.4||2.7||-1.4|
|Real Personal Consumption Expenditures||0.0||0.3||0.0||2.6||3.1||2.7||1.7|