- Korea: GDP (Q4); Thailand Auto Sales (Feb)
- Turkey: Capacity Utilization, Business Tendency survey (Mar); South Africa: Tourism & Migration (Jan), Manufacturing Survey (Q1)
- Croatia: Tourism (Jan); Montenegro: Foreign Trade (Feb); Czech Republic: CPI by COICOP (Feb), Registered Employment (Q4); Kazakhstan: Loans & Deposits (Feb); Slovenia: Business Cycle Indicators (Mar); Russia: Employment by Industry (Q4);
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
Texas Factory Sector Activity Remains Strong
The Dallas Fed indicated in its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey that the General Business Activity Index eased during March...
EMU Money and Credit Growth Are Less Than Impressive Than Euro-PMIs
EMU nominal money supply growth is slightly higher over three months, but credit growth in the EMU is slower...
Durable Goods Orders Strengthened by Another Jump in Aircraft
New orders for durable goods rose 1.7% (5.0% y/y) during February...
Correction to Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims
The Department of Labor has issued a correction to yesterday's annual revision to seasonally adjusted weekly unemployment claims...
EMU PMIs Are Off to the Races...Farewell Mediocrity?
The PMI rankings for the manufacturing and service sector PMIs in the EMU are suddenly off the chart...
U.S. New Home Sales Improve While Prices Decline
Sales of new single-family homes increased 6.1% (12.8% y/y) during February to 592,000 units (AR)...
by Tom Moeller April 29, 2016
A firmer job market is lending strength to earnings power. Personal income increased 0.4% during March (4.2% y/y) following a 0.1% uptick in February, revised from 0.2%. A 0.3% increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Wages & salaries increased 0.4% (4.7% y/y) following a 0.1% slip. In other income categories, rental income strengthened 0.8% (7.7% y/y), but proprietors income remained unchanged (3.5% y/y). Transfer payments increased 0.3% (3.7% y/y) as Medicare receipts rose 0.5% (5.3% y/y). Social security payments eased slightly (+2.5% y/y). Unemployment insurance payments declined 1.5% (-7.2% y/y).
Disposable personal income increased 0.4% (4.0% y/y) following February's 0.1% rise. Adjusted for price increases, take-home pay rose 0.3% (3.1% y/y) following 0.2% increases in the prior two months.
Personal consumption expenditures during March increased a minimal 0.1% (3.5% y/y) following two months of 0.2% gain. February's rise was revised from 0.1%. The latest increase fell short of expectations for a 0.2% rise. Spending on durable goods declined 0.6% (+1.3% y/y), leaving Q1 growth at -2.7% (AR). Motor vehicle & parts purchases fell 2.0% (-4.8% y/y), down for the fourth consecutive month. Spending on furniture & appliances offset this decline with a 0.4% rise (3.1% y/y), while recreational goods & vehicles purchases rose 0.2% (6.1% y/y). Nondurable goods spending advanced 0.6% (0.4% y/y), but quarterly purchases declined 4.7% (AR). Clothing & footwear buying declined 0.5% (+0.3% y/y), but gasoline purchases increased 4.5% with higher prices (-17.6% y/y). Food & beverage purchases rose 0.4% (1.0% y/y). In the services area, outlays rose 0.1% (4.8% y/y), the gain held back by a 0.4% decline (+2.8% y/y) in spending on housing & utilities. Health care outlays rose 0.4% (4.5% y/y) while recreation buying gained 0.3% (8.8% y/y). Spending at restaurants & hotels fell 0.6% (+5.5% y/y).
Adjusted for price inflation, personal consumption expenditures remained constant m/m (2.6% y/y) after a 0.3% increase. During Q1, spending rose at a 1.9% annual rate, the weakest rise in a year.
The personal savings rate held steady at 5.4%, but February's rate was lessened to 5.1%. January's rate also was revised down to 5.2%. The Q1 savings rate of 5.2% equaled the level in Q1'15. The level of personal savings rose 12.7% y/y in March.
The chain-type price index rose 0.1%, and the y/y increase of 0.8% compared to a 0.3% rise during all of last year. The price index excluding food & energy also nudged 0.1% higher (1.6% y/y). The service price index gained 0.2% (2.1% y/y). The durable goods index declined 0.3% (-1.6%) while the nondurables price index eased 0.1% (-1.9% y/y).
The personal income & consumption figures are available in Haver's USECON database with detail in the USNA database. The Action Economics figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
A Discussion of Key Secular Trends, Economic Conditions and Monetary Policy by Robert S. Kaplan, President & CEO, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas is available here.
|Personal Income & Outlays (%)||Mar||Feb||Jan||Mar Y/Y||2015||2014||2013|
|Wages & Salaries||0.4||-0.1||0.6||4.7||4.6||5.1||2.7|
|Disposable Personal Income||0.4||0.1||0.4||4.0||3.7||4.2||-0.1|
|Personal Consumption Expenditures||0.1||0.2||0.2||3.5||3.4||4.2||3.1|
|Personal Saving Rate||5.4||5.1||5.2||4.9
|PCE Chain Price Index||0.1||-0.1||0.1||0.8||0.3||1.4||1.4|
|Less Food & Energy||0.1||0.2||0.3||1.6||1.3||1.5||1.5|
|Real Disposable Income||0.3||0.2||0.2||3.1||3.4||2.7||-1.4|
|Real Personal Consumption Expenditures||0.0||0.3||0.0||2.6||3.1||2.7||1.7|