Recent Updates

  • Thailand: Agricultural Price Index, Rice Exports Quantity (Apr); Korea: International Investment Position, External Debt (Q1)
  • Japan: Financial Institutions Accounts (Mar)
  • New Zealand: International Trade (Apr), Australia: Job Vacancy Report (Apr), Construction Work Done (Q1)
  • US: New Residential Sales (Apr)
  • Flash PMI - Japan, Germany, France, Euro Area, US (May)
  • Spain: International Trade Summary and by End Use (Mar), Automobile
  • more updates...

Economy in Brief

Chicago Purchasing Managers Index Disappoints & Trends Sideways
by Tom Moeller  April 29, 2016

Chicago purchasing managers reported that their Business Barometer Index declined to 50.4 this month following a jump to 53.6 in March. The latest reading fell short of expectations for 53.0 in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The figure has been range-bound since early last year.

Haver Analytics constructs an ISM-Adjusted Index using the Chicago numbers, comparable to the overall ISM index to be released tomorrow. Our figure increased to 52.0, but has been moving sideways for a year. During the last ten years, there has been a 61% correlation between the adjusted Chicago Purchasing Managers index and real GDP growth.

The employment figure declined following its jump in March, and remained below the 2014 highs. During the last ten years, there has been an 81% correlation between the employment figure and the m/m change in factory sector employment. New orders also declined along with order backlogs. Production improved slightly while the supplier delivery reading jumped, indicating slower delivery speeds. Inventories also improved.

The prices paid reading jumped to the highest level since November 2014. A sharply increased 22% (NSA) of respondents reported paying higher prices while a notably lessened 11% paid less.

The MNI Chicago Report is produced by MNI/Deutsche Borse Group in partnership with ISM-Chicago. The survey covers a sample of over 200 purchasing professionals in the Chicago area with a monthly response rate of about 50%. The ISM-Adjusted headline index is calculated by Haver Analytics using these data to construct a figure with the ISM methodology. The figures can be found in Haver's SURVEYS database. The Consensus expectations figure is available in AS1REPNA.

Chicago Purchasing Managers Index (%, SA) Apr Mar Feb Apr '15 2015 2014 2013
ISM-Adjusted General Business Barometer 52.0 50.8 46.7 54.2 51.6 59.3 54.2
General Business Barometer 50.4 53.6 47.6 53.4 50.3 60.7 56.0
  Production 54.0 53.7 44.0 54.7 52.5 64.5 58.2
  New Orders 51.0 55.6 51.7 55.4 50.4 63.8 59.1
  Order Backlogs 38.7 49.7 45.3 48.2 44.4 54.2 48.8
  Inventories 49.6 44.0 43.1 55.1 52.1 55.9 45.6
  Employment 47.5 52.8 45.2 53.8 50.3 56.0 55.6
  Supplier Deliveries 57.8 48.1 49.7 52.0 52.5 56.5 52.5
  Prices Paid 56.9 45.1 41.1 45.5 46.8 61.0 59.8
close
large image