- US: IIP (Q4)
- Zambia: BOP (Q4); Israel: Credit Card Purchases (Feb); UAE: CPI (Feb); Saudi Arabia: GDP (Q4-Prelim)
- Hungary: Employment (Feb); Bulgaria: Business Survey (Mar); Kazakhstan: Consolidated Budget (Feb)
- Sweden: Consumer Confidence, Business Tendency Survey, Public Finance (Mar); Iceland: PPI (Feb)
- Spain: Mortgage Market (Jan), Order Book Forecast (Mar)
- Italy: ISTAT Business & Consumer Survey (Mar)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Energy Product Prices Remain Under Pressure
Regular gasoline prices held steady at $2.32 per gallon last week (12.1% y/y) for the third straight week...
German Federal Debt Levels Fall
German debt level fell outright in Q4 2016 as the ratio of federal debt-to-GDP also fell...
NABE 2018 Forecast: Modest Improvement in Economic Growth & Higher Inflation
The NABE expects 2.5% real U.S. economic growth in 2018 compared to 2.3% forecast for 2017...
Texas Factory Sector Activity Remains Strong
The Dallas Fed indicated in its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey that the General Business Activity Index eased during March...
EMU Money and Credit Growth Are Less Than Impressive Than Euro-PMIs
EMU nominal money supply growth is slightly higher over three months, but credit growth in the EMU is slower...
Durable Goods Orders Strengthened by Another Jump in Aircraft
New orders for durable goods rose 1.7% (5.0% y/y) during February...
by Tom Moeller April 29, 2016
Chicago purchasing managers reported that their Business Barometer Index declined to 50.4 this month following a jump to 53.6 in March. The latest reading fell short of expectations for 53.0 in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The figure has been range-bound since early last year.
Haver Analytics constructs an ISM-Adjusted Index using the Chicago numbers, comparable to the overall ISM index to be released tomorrow. Our figure increased to 52.0, but has been moving sideways for a year. During the last ten years, there has been a 61% correlation between the adjusted Chicago Purchasing Managers index and real GDP growth.
The employment figure declined following its jump in March, and remained below the 2014 highs. During the last ten years, there has been an 81% correlation between the employment figure and the m/m change in factory sector employment. New orders also declined along with order backlogs. Production improved slightly while the supplier delivery reading jumped, indicating slower delivery speeds. Inventories also improved.
The prices paid reading jumped to the highest level since November 2014. A sharply increased 22% (NSA) of respondents reported paying higher prices while a notably lessened 11% paid less.
The MNI Chicago Report is produced by MNI/Deutsche Borse Group in partnership with ISM-Chicago. The survey covers a sample of over 200 purchasing professionals in the Chicago area with a monthly response rate of about 50%. The ISM-Adjusted headline index is calculated by Haver Analytics using these data to construct a figure with the ISM methodology. The figures can be found in Haver's SURVEYS database. The Consensus expectations figure is available in AS1REPNA.
|Chicago Purchasing Managers Index (%, SA)||Apr||Mar||Feb||Apr '15||2015||2014||2013|
|ISM-Adjusted General Business Barometer||52.0||50.8||46.7||54.2||51.6||59.3||54.2|
|General Business Barometer||50.4||53.6||47.6||53.4||50.3||60.7||56.0|