- Weekly: **Unemployment Initial Claims Data have been revised**
- US: Housing Starts by State and Region (Feb)
- CPB World Trade Monitor (Jan)
- CPB World Trade Monitor (Jan)
- France: Registered Unemployed & Job Vacancies (Feb)
- US: Household Employment for States and Regions (Feb)
- US: Wholesale Trade Revisions, Advance Durable Goods (Feb)
- Manufacturing Survey - Markit US (Flash - Mar), Composite Survey - US (Flash - Mar), Services Survey - US (Flash - Mar)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
Correction to Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims
The Department of Labor has issued a correction to yesterday's annual revision to seasonally adjusted weekly unemployment claims...
EMU PMIs Are Off to the Races...Farewell Mediocrity?
The PMI rankings for the manufacturing and service sector PMIs in the EMU are suddenly off the chart...
U.S. New Home Sales Improve While Prices Decline
Sales of new single-family homes increased 6.1% (12.8% y/y) during February to 592,000 units (AR)...
Kansas City Federal Reserve Factory Index Strengthens; Expectations Surge
The Kansas City Fed reported that its index of regional manufacturing sector business activity increased to 20 during March...
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Rise
Initial claims for unemployment insurance increased to 258,000 (-3.0% y/y) during the week ended March 18...
U.K. Retail Looks Less Bulletproof
For the most part, the assessments embodied in the March survey from the UK's CBI are being taken as being upbeat...
by Tom Moeller May 4, 2016
The ADP/Moody's National Employment Report indicated that nonfarm private sector payrolls rose 156,000 during April (2.0% y/y) following a 194,000 increase in March, revised from 200,000. The rise compared to an average monthly increase of 198,000 in Q1 and 219,000 in Q4'15. It fell short of expectations for a 200,000 rise in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. During the last ten years, there has been a 96% correlation between the change in the ADP figure and the change in nonfarm private sector payrolls as measured by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
The ADP Research Institute survey is based on ADP's business payroll transaction system covering 411,000 companies and nearly 24 million employees. The data are processed by Moody's Analytics Inc., then calibrated and aligned with the BLS establishment survey data. The ADP data cover private sector employment only.
Medium-sized businesses led last month's hiring slowdown with a 39,000 rise (1.8% y/y) after a 66,000 increase. That was down from a 136,000 high back in December 2013. Large business payrolls increased 24,000 (2.3% y/y), down from a 99,000 increase in September. Small business hiring held steady at 93,000 m/m (2.1% y/y). The three-month pace of 86,000 was improved from 62,000 in November.
Service-industry hiring increased 166,000 (2.3% y/y), but the three-month average of 188,000 was below the 212,000 average ending February. Payrolls in trade, transportation & utilities industries rose a diminished 25,000 (1.6% y/y) after a 41,000 rise. The number of professional & business services increased a weakened 26,000 (2.6% y/y), after an 82,000 December gain. The number of financial activities jobs rose 4,000 (1.8% y/y), compared to a monthly high of 20,000 in February of last year.
Hiring in the goods-producing sector of the economy slackened last month by 11,000 (+0.5% y/y). As recently as December, payrolls in the goods-producing sector posted a 38,000 increase. Factory sector jobs declined 13,000 (-0.0% y/y), the largest of the declines in the last three months. To the upside, construction sector employment increased 14,000 (3.7% y/y), but that also was easier than the 32,000 gain in December.
The ADP National Employment Report data are maintained in Haver's USECON database; historical figures date back to April 2001 for the total and industry breakdown, and back to January 2005 for the business size breakout. The expectation figure is available in Haver's AS1REPNA database.
|ADP/Moody's National Employment Report||Apr||Mar||Feb||Apr Y/Y||2015||2014||2013|
|Nonfarm Private Payroll Employment (m/m chg, 000s)||156||194||207||2.0%||2.3%||2.2%||1.9%|
|Small Payroll (1-049)||93||93||71||2.1||2.6||2.1||1.9|
|Medium Payroll (50-499)||39||66||58||1.8||2.3||2.8||2.2|
|Large Payroll (>500)||24||35||78||2.3||1.7||1.6||1.5|