- Sweden: Consumer Confidence, Business Tendency Survey, Public Finance (Mar)
- Spain: Mortgage Market (Jan), Order Book Forecast (Mar)
- Italy: ISTAT Business & Consumer Survey Press Release (Mar)
- Germany: Business Registrations & Deregistrations (Dec), Import & Export Prices (Feb), IAB Labor Market Barometer (Mar)
- Vietnam: GDP (Q1), CPI, IP, International Trade, Passenger & Cargo Traffic Statistics, Manufacturing Sales and Inventories, International Visitor Arrivals (Mar); Korea: Economic Sentiment
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Economy in Brief
U.S. Energy Product Prices Remain Under Pressure
Regular gasoline prices held steady at $2.32 per gallon last week (12.1% y/y) for the third straight week...
German Federal Debt Levels Fall
German debt level fell outright in Q4 2016 as the ratio of federal debt-to-GDP also fell...
NABE 2018 Forecast: Modest Improvement in Economic Growth & Higher Inflation
The NABE expects 2.5% real U.S. economic growth in 2018 compared to 2.3% forecast for 2017...
Texas Factory Sector Activity Remains Strong
The Dallas Fed indicated in its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey that the General Business Activity Index eased during March...
EMU Money and Credit Growth Are Less Than Impressive Than Euro-PMIs
EMU nominal money supply growth is slightly higher over three months, but credit growth in the EMU is slower...
Durable Goods Orders Strengthened by Another Jump in Aircraft
New orders for durable goods rose 1.7% (5.0% y/y) during February...
by Tom Moeller May 4, 2016
The Composite Index of Nonmanufacturing Sector Business Activity from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) increased to 55.7 during April versus an unrevised 54.5 in March. It was the highest reading since December. Consensus expectations had been for 54.7 in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The ISM data are diffusion indexes where a reading above 50 indicates expansion.
Haver Analytics constructs a Composite Index using the nonmanufacturing ISM index and the ISM factory sector measure released Monday. It increased to 55.1, the highest level since November. During the last ten years, there has been a 72% correlation between the index and the q/q change in real GDP.
Amongst the component series, the new orders reading jumped to 59.9, its highest level in six months. The employment index also strengthened to 53.0, the highest level this year. During the last ten years, there has been a 96% correlation between the employment index and the m/m change in service plus construction payrolls. The supplier delivery index remained unchanged at 51.0, but the business activity measure declined to 58.8. That reversed half of the prior month's gain.
The prices paid series jumped to 53.4, the highest level since last May. Nineteen percent (NSA) of respondents paid higher prices while 7 percent paid less.
The export order series (NSA) eased to 56.5, but remained near the one-year high. The imports series rose slightly to 54.0, and the order backlog figure eased to 51.5. The figure has been roughly stable for four months, but remained down versus a high of 56.5 last August.
The figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The expectations figure from Action Economics is in the AS1REPNA database.
|ISM Nonmanufacturing Survey (SA)||Apr||Mar||Feb||Apr'15||2015||2014||2013|
|Composite Diffusion Index||55.7||54.5||53.4||57.5||57.1||56.2||54.6|
|Supplier Deliveries (NSA)||51.0||51.0||50.5||53.5||52.5||51.8||51.7|