- China: Industrial Profits (Mar); Philippines: Tourist Arrivals (Feb); Korea: GDP (Q1)
- New Zealand: Tourism Expenditure, International Reserves, RBNZ Analytical Accounts and Statistical Balance Sheet (Mar); Australia: Import and Export Price Indexes (Q1)
- Japan: Input Output Prices, International Trade, Lease Contracts (Mar), First 10 Days Trade (Apr)
- France: INSEE Household Survey (Apr), Registered Unemployed & Job
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Gasoline Prices Are Little-Changed; Crude Oil Falls
Regular gasoline prices of $2.45 per gallon last week (13.3% y/y)...
Japan's METI Indexes Show Ongoing Gains
The services sector is assessed by the METI indexes where it is named the 'tertiary sector.' That sector index rose to 104.1 in February...
U.S. New Home Sales & Prices Strengthen
Sales of new single-family homes increased 5.8% (15.6% y/y) during March to 621,000...
U.S. Consumer Confidence Backpedals
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index fell 3.7% during April (+27.0% y/y) to 120.3...
U.S. FHFA House Price Index Regains Strength
The FHFA U.S. house prices increased 0.8% during February (6.5% y/y)...
French Manufacturing and Service Sectors Weaken But Stay on Trend or Hold Recent Gains
The French manufacturing sector trend index is down to 1 in April from 3 in March...
by Tom Moeller May 5, 2016
Labor market improvement stuttered again last week. Initial claims for jobless insurance increased to 274,000 (3.0% y/y) during the week ended April 30, after rising to an unrevised 257,000 in the prior week. It was the highest level of claims since the end of March. Expectations were for 256,000 applications in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The four-week moving average of claims rose to 258,000, but remained near the lowest level since 1973. During the last ten years, there has been a 74% correlation between the level of claims and the m/m change in payroll employment.
In the week ending April 23, continuing claims for unemployment insurance eased to 2.121 million (-5.0% y/y) from 2.129 million. The four-week moving average fell to 2.140 million, the lowest level since November 2000.
The insured rate of unemployment declined to 1.5%, a new low for the economic recovery.
Insured rates of unemployment across states continued to vary. Near the low end of the range were South Dakota (0.41%), Florida (0.61%), North Carolina (0.63%), South Carolina (0.74%), Tennessee (0.78%) and Virginia (0.82%). At the high end of the scale were Rhode Island (2.09%), Massachusetts (2.15%), Illinois (2.20%), Pennsylvania (2.44%), Connecticut (2.48%) and New Jersey (2.60%). The state data are not seasonally adjusted.
Data on weekly unemployment insurance are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database and they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics survey, carried in the AS1REPNA database.
The Yield Curve and Predicted GDP Growth, March 2016 from the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland is available here.
|Unemployment Insurance (000s)||04/30/16||04/23/16||04/16/16||Y/Y||2015||2014||2013|
|Insured Unemployment Rate (%)||--||1.5||1.6||