- Sweden: Consumer Confidence, Business Tendency Survey, Public Finance (Mar)
- Spain: Mortgage Market (Jan), Order Book Forecast (Mar)
- Italy: ISTAT Business & Consumer Survey Press Release (Mar)
- Germany: Business Registrations & Deregistrations (Dec), Import & Export Prices (Feb), IAB Labor Market Barometer (Mar)
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Economy in Brief
U.S. Energy Product Prices Remain Under Pressure
Regular gasoline prices held steady at $2.32 per gallon last week (12.1% y/y) for the third straight week...
German Federal Debt Levels Fall
German debt level fell outright in Q4 2016 as the ratio of federal debt-to-GDP also fell...
NABE 2018 Forecast: Modest Improvement in Economic Growth & Higher Inflation
The NABE expects 2.5% real U.S. economic growth in 2018 compared to 2.3% forecast for 2017...
Texas Factory Sector Activity Remains Strong
The Dallas Fed indicated in its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey that the General Business Activity Index eased during March...
EMU Money and Credit Growth Are Less Than Impressive Than Euro-PMIs
EMU nominal money supply growth is slightly higher over three months, but credit growth in the EMU is slower...
Durable Goods Orders Strengthened by Another Jump in Aircraft
New orders for durable goods rose 1.7% (5.0% y/y) during February...
by Tom Moeller May 11, 2016
The U.S. Treasury Department reported a $106.5 billion budget surplus during April of 2016, smaller than the $156.7 billion surplus twelve months earlier. A $112.5 billion deficit had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. During the first seven months of FY'16, the budget deficit totaled $354.6 billion versus $282.8 billion in the first seven months of FY'15.
Overall revenues increased 1.2% so far in FY'16 versus the first seven months of FY'15. The gain was pulled lower by a 10.1% y/y fall in corporate income tax payments, compared to 7.2% growth in 2015. Individual income taxes grew a diminished 1.2% y/y. Social insurance contributions increased 2.1% y/y while excise taxes edged 0.8% lower y/y.
Government spending increased 4.4% y/y so far in FY'16. Medicare payments strengthened 11.3% y/y. Outlays on health programs gained 7.3% y/y with the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act. Veterans Benefits & Services rose 12.4% y/y. Social Security benefits rose 3.5% y/y while income security payments increased 2.0% y/y. National Defense Spending edged just 0.4% higher y/y. Spending on Education, Training, Employment & Social Services gained 2.4% y/y. Interest payments increased 12.5% y/y.
Haver's data on Federal Government outlays and receipts are contained in USECON. Considerable detail is given in the separate GOVFIN database. The Action Economics Forecast Survey numbers are in the AS1REPNA database.
|United States Government Finance||April 2016||FY'15||FY'14||FY'13||FY'12|
|Budget Balance||--||$106.5 bil.||-$438.9 bil.||-$483.4 bil.||-$680.2 bil.||-$1,089.2 bil.|
|As a percent of GDP||--||--||2.5||2.8||4.1||6.8|
|% of Total|
|Net Revenues (Fiscal YTD, Y/Y % Change)||100||1.2%||7.6%||8.9%||13.3%||6.4%|
|Individual Income Taxes||47||1.2||10.5||5.9||16.3||3.7|
|Corporate Income Taxes||11||-10.1||7.2||17.3||12.9||33.8|
|Social Insurance Taxes||33||2.1||4.1||8.0||12.1||3.2|
|Net Outlays (Fiscal YTD, Y/Y % Change)||100||4.4||5.2||1.4||-2.4||-1.7|
|Veterans Benefits & Services||4||12.4||6.8||7.7||11.5||-2.0|
|Education, Training, Employment & Social Services||3||2.4||34.7||25.9||-21.9||-10.3|