- US: IIP (Q4)
- Zambia: BOP (Q4); Israel: Credit Card Purchases (Feb); UAE: CPI (Feb); Saudi Arabia: GDP (Q4-Prelim)
- Hungary: Employment (Feb); Bulgaria: Business Survey (Mar); Kazakhstan: Consolidated Budget (Feb)
- Sweden: Consumer Confidence, Business Tendency Survey, Public Finance (Mar); Iceland: PPI (Feb)
- Spain: Mortgage Market (Jan), Order Book Forecast (Mar)
- Italy: ISTAT Business & Consumer Survey (Mar)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Energy Product Prices Remain Under Pressure
Regular gasoline prices held steady at $2.32 per gallon last week (12.1% y/y) for the third straight week...
German Federal Debt Levels Fall
German debt level fell outright in Q4 2016 as the ratio of federal debt-to-GDP also fell...
NABE 2018 Forecast: Modest Improvement in Economic Growth & Higher Inflation
The NABE expects 2.5% real U.S. economic growth in 2018 compared to 2.3% forecast for 2017...
Texas Factory Sector Activity Remains Strong
The Dallas Fed indicated in its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey that the General Business Activity Index eased during March...
EMU Money and Credit Growth Are Less Than Impressive Than Euro-PMIs
EMU nominal money supply growth is slightly higher over three months, but credit growth in the EMU is slower...
Durable Goods Orders Strengthened by Another Jump in Aircraft
New orders for durable goods rose 1.7% (5.0% y/y) during February...
by Tom Moeller May 12, 2016
The labor market is under pressure. Initial claims for unemployment insurance jumped to 294,000 (7.8% y/y) during the week ended May 7, after rising to an unrevised 274,000 in the prior week. It was the highest level of claims since February 2015. Expectations were for 267,000 applications in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The four-week moving average of claims rose to 268,250, the highest level since early-February. During the last ten years, there has been a 74% correlation between the level of claims and the m/m change in payroll employment.
In the week ending April 30, continuing claims for unemployment insurance increased to 2.161 million (-2.9% y/y) from 2.124 million. The four-week moving average fell to 2.137 million, the lowest level since November 2000.
The insured rate of unemployment held steady at 1.6%, also the lowest level since 2000.
Insured rates of unemployment across states continued to vary. Near the low end of the range were South Dakota (0.39%), Florida (0.59%), North Carolina (0.62%), South Carolina (0.73%), Tennessee (0.77%) and Virginia (0.81%). At the high end of the scale were Illinois (2.07%), Pennsylvania (2.28%), Massachusetts (2.32%), Rhode Island (2.37%), Connecticut (2.41%) and New Jersey (2.49%). The state data are not seasonally adjusted.
Data on weekly unemployment insurance are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database and they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics survey, carried in the AS1REPNA database.
U.S. Labor Market Resilient as Output Slumps (Again) from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas is available here.
|Unemployment Insurance (000s)||05/07/16||04/30/16||04/23/16||Y/Y||2015||2014||2013|
|Insured Unemployment Rate (%)||--||1.6||1.6||