- New Zealand: International Trade (Feb)
- Korea: Consumer Survey Index (Mar); Philippines: Public Finance (Jan)
- Weekly: **Initial Claims Data Revisions Completed**
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- US: New Residential Sales (Feb)
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Economy in Brief
Kansas City Federal Reserve Factory Index Strengthens; Expectations Surge
The Kansas City Fed reported that its index of regional manufacturing sector business activity increased to 20 during March...
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Rise
Initial claims for unemployment insurance increased to 258,000 (-3.0% y/y) during the week ended March 18...
U.K. Retail Looks Less Bulletproof
For the most part, the assessments embodied in the March survey from the UK's CBI are being taken as being upbeat...
U.S. Existing Home Sales Fall to Five-Month Low; Inventory Remains Tight
Sales of existing single-family homes declined 3.7% (+5.4% y/y) to 5.480 million units (AR) during February...
U.S. FHFA House Price Index Momentum Diminishes
The FHFA U.S. house price index remained unchanged during January following a 0.4% December increase ...
Japan's Trade Trends Turn Sharply Higher
Japan has logged its largest current account surplus since April 2010...
by Tom Moeller May 16, 2016
The Empire State Factory Index of General Business Conditions indicated deterioration in business activity during May. The New York index declined to -9.02 following unrevised positive readings in the prior two months. Nineteen percent of respondents reported a higher level of business activity while 28% reported a decrease. Expectations had been for 7.3 in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The data are reported by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and reflect business conditions in New York, northern New Jersey and southern Connecticut.
Based on these figures, Haver Analytics calculates a seasonally adjusted index that is comparable to the ISM series. The adjusted figure declined to 48.1 from 51.9, and also indicated that business activity deteriorated this month. Since inception in 2001, the business conditions index has had a 65% correlation with the change in real GDP.
Deterioration in the component series was broad-based. The new orders reading declined -5.54 following two months above break-even. Shipments also returned to negative territory, indicating that shipments levels fell, while delivery times shortened. The level of unfilled orders declined at the quickest pace in three months. Inventory decumulation continued at a fairly steady pace. Running counter to these indications was the employment figure which rose to 2.08. It was the highest level since July, and suggested positive job growth for a second straight month. During the last ten years there has been a 69% correlation between the index level and the m/m change in factory sector payrolls. The workweek index declined to the lowest level this year.
The prices paid index declined to 16.67, but remained near its highest level since early last year. It remained down, however, from the 2011 high of 69.89. Twenty two percent of respondents paid higher prices while 5% paid less. The index of prices received fell back into negative territory, where it has been for three months this year.
The index of expectations for business conditions in six months eased to 28.48, but remained up sharply from the expansion low of 9.51 three months ago. Broad-based deterioration in the component series was accompanied by a slight rise in expected prices paid. Expected capital expenditures fell sharply along with technology spending.
The Empire State figures are diffusion indexes which are calculated by subtracting the percent of respondents reporting poorer business conditions from those reporting improvement. Thus, they have a good correlation with growth in the series covered. The data is available in Haver's SURVEYS database. The ISM-adjusted headline index is calculated by Haver Analytics. The series dates back to 2001. The Action Economics figure can be found in Haver's AS1REPNA database.
|Empire State Manufacturing Survey||May||Apr||Mar||May'15||2015||2014||2013|
|General Business Conditions Index (ISM Adjusted, >50=Increasing Activity, SA)||48.1||51.9||51.1||51.7||48.9||52.4||50.0|
|General Business Conditions (Diffusion Index, %, SA)||-9.02||9.56||0.62||2.22||-2.34||11.89||3.88|
|Number of Employees||2.08||1.92||-1.98||5.21||2.72||10.85||3.73|
|Expectations 6 Months Ahead||28.48||29.40||25.52||30.50||30.38||40.22||33.25|