- US: GDP & Corporate Profits (Q4, 3rd release)
- Canada: Industrial Products & Raw Material Prices (Feb)
- Spain: Flash HICP and CPI, Construction Business Survey Press (Mar)
- Euro area: EC Business and Consumer Surveys (Mar)
- Belize: GDP (Q4)
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Economy in Brief
U.S. Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Ease
Initial jobless insurance applications fell to 258,000 (-3.1% y/y) during the week ended March 25...
U.S. Pending Home Sales Jump
The NAR reported that pending home sales increased 5.5% in February to an index level of 112.3...
U.S. Mortgage Loan Applications Remain Little Changed; Variable Rate Apps Surge
The MBA total Mortgage Market Volume Index slipped 0.8% last week (-12.4% y/y)...
La Dolce Vita? Italian Confidence Bumps Higher
Italian business and consumer confidence moved higher in March...
U.S. Consumer Confidence Improves Significantly
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for March strengthened 8.2% (30.7% y/y) to 125.6...
U.S. Energy Product Prices Remain Under Pressure
Regular gasoline prices held steady at $2.32 per gallon last week (12.1% y/y) for the third straight week...
by Tom Moeller May 19, 2016
Initial unemployment jobless claims fell to 278,000 (+0.7% y/y) during the week ended May 14, and retraced most of the prior week's run-up to an unrevised 294,000. The decline followed three weeks of increase. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 275,000 claims. The four week moving average of claims rose to 275,750, the highest point since early February.
The latest initial claims figure covers the survey week for May nonfarm payrolls, and claims rose 30,000 (12.1%) from the April period. During the last ten years, there has been a 74% correlation between the level of claims and the m/m change in payroll employment.
In the week ending May 7, continuing claims for unemployment insurance declined to 2.152 million (-3.6% y/y) from 2.165 million. The four-week moving average ticked up to 2.143 million, but remained near the lowest level since November 2000.
The insured rate of unemployment held steady at 1.6%, also the lowest level since 2000.
Insured rates of unemployment across states continued to vary. Near the low end of the range were South Dakota (0.38%), Florida (0.58%), North Carolina (0.62%), South Carolina (0.74%), Tennessee (0.81%) and Virginia (0.84%). At the high end of the scale were Rhode Island (1.95%), Massachusetts (2.02%), Connecticut (2.18%), Illinois (2.19%), Pennsylvania (2.25%) and New Jersey (2.45%). The state data are not seasonally adjusted.
Data on weekly unemployment insurance are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database and they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics survey, carried in the AS1REPNA database.
|Unemployment Insurance (000s)||05/14/16||05/07/16||04/30/16||Y/Y||2015||2014||2013|
|Insured Unemployment Rate (%)||--||1.6||1.6||