- Japan: Index of Business Conditions (Feb-Final), Electric Power Generated (Jan)
- Spain: Services Sector Activity, New Orders and Turnovers (Feb)
- Finland: PPI, Domestic Supply Prices (Mar)
- US: NABE Business Conditions Survey (Q1)
- Indonesia: Non-Oil and Gas Trade (Feb); Taiwan: Labor Market (Mar)
- Egypt: IP (Feb)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
Fresh Six-Year PMI Highs for Euro Area
The 'fresh six-year high' is a pleasant surprise that continues, but...
Philadelphia Fed Factory Conditions Soften
The Philadelphia Fed reported that its General Factory Sector Business Conditions Index fell to 22.0 during April...
U.S. Leading Economic Indicators Suggest Continued Expansion
The Conference Board's Composite Index of Leading Economic Indicators increased 0.4% (3.5% y/y) during March...
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Applications Increase
Initial unemployment claims for unemployment insurance rose to 244,000 during the week ended April 15 (-5.1% y/y)...
Japan's 'Trade Trends' Stabilize on an Unstable Foundation
Japan trade trends, broadly considered, seem to be stabilizing...
U.S. Mortgage Loan Applications Fall
The MBA total Mortgage Applications Volume Index declined 1.8% last week (-24.9% y/y)...
by Tom Moeller May 19, 2016
The National Activity Index from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago increased to 0.10 during April, the first positive reading since January. It still suggested, however, that economic growth was slightly below trend. At -0.22, the three month moving average has been in negative territory since February 2015. During the last ten years, there has been a 77% correlation between the Chicago Fed Index and the q/q change in real GDP.
Each of the component series improved last month. The Production & Income reading moved up sharply to 0.19, the highest point in nine months. The Personal Consumption & Housing figure rose to -0.07, its best level this year. The Employment, Unemployment & Hours figure rose to a still-depressed -0.02. The Sales, Orders & Inventories figure was fairly steady at 0.00. The Fed reported that 45 of the 85 component series made positive contributions to the total while 40 made negative contributions.
The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of national economic activity. It is constructed to have an average value of zero and a standard deviation of one. Since economic activity tends toward trend growth rate over time, a positive index reading corresponds to growth above trend and a negative index reading corresponds to growth below trend.
The Chicago Federal Reserve figures are available in Haver's SURVEYS database.
|Chicago Federal Reserve Bank||Apr||Mar||Feb||Apr '15||2015||2014||2013|
|National Activity Index (percent)||0.10||-0.55||-0.20||0.17||-0.17||0.16||-0.08|
|3-Month Moving Average||-0.22||-0.18||-0.08||-0.14||--||--||--|
|Personal Consumption & Housing||-0.07||-0.11||-0.05||-0.06||-0.09||-0.11||-0.15|
|Employment, Unemployment & Hours||-0.02||-0.04||0.05||0.15||0.07||0.18||0.09|
|Production & Income||0.19||-0.39||-0.16||-0.03||-0.14||0.06||-0.04|
|Sales, Orders & Inventories||0.00||-0.01||-0.03||0.12||-0.02||0.04||0.02|