- US: Advance Trade & Inventories (Feb)
- Sweden: Retail Trade, PPI, International Trade (Feb); Iceland: CPI (Mar)
- Turkey: International Reserves (Feb); Mauritius: Wage Rate Index, LFS (Q4); Saudi Arabia: Non-Oil Foreign Trade (Jan); Palestine: BOP (Q4); UAE: Fuel Prices (Apr); Israel: Construction Starts & Completions (Q4); South Africa: Construction Survey (Q1); Tanzania: Trade (Q4)
- Brazil: PPI (Feb)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
Texas Factory Sector Activity Remains Strong
The Dallas Fed indicated in its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey that the General Business Activity Index eased during March...
EMU Money and Credit Growth Are Less Than Impressive Than Euro-PMIs
EMU nominal money supply growth is slightly higher over three months, but credit growth in the EMU is slower...
Durable Goods Orders Strengthened by Another Jump in Aircraft
New orders for durable goods rose 1.7% (5.0% y/y) during February...
Correction to Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims
The Department of Labor has issued a correction to yesterday's annual revision to seasonally adjusted weekly unemployment claims...
EMU PMIs Are Off to the Races...Farewell Mediocrity?
The PMI rankings for the manufacturing and service sector PMIs in the EMU are suddenly off the chart...
U.S. New Home Sales Improve While Prices Decline
Sales of new single-family homes increased 6.1% (12.8% y/y) during February to 592,000 units (AR)...
by Tom Moeller May 19, 2016
The National Activity Index from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago increased to 0.10 during April, the first positive reading since January. It still suggested, however, that economic growth was slightly below trend. At -0.22, the three month moving average has been in negative territory since February 2015. During the last ten years, there has been a 77% correlation between the Chicago Fed Index and the q/q change in real GDP.
Each of the component series improved last month. The Production & Income reading moved up sharply to 0.19, the highest point in nine months. The Personal Consumption & Housing figure rose to -0.07, its best level this year. The Employment, Unemployment & Hours figure rose to a still-depressed -0.02. The Sales, Orders & Inventories figure was fairly steady at 0.00. The Fed reported that 45 of the 85 component series made positive contributions to the total while 40 made negative contributions.
The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of national economic activity. It is constructed to have an average value of zero and a standard deviation of one. Since economic activity tends toward trend growth rate over time, a positive index reading corresponds to growth above trend and a negative index reading corresponds to growth below trend.
The Chicago Federal Reserve figures are available in Haver's SURVEYS database.
|Chicago Federal Reserve Bank||Apr||Mar||Feb||Apr '15||2015||2014||2013|
|National Activity Index (percent)||0.10||-0.55||-0.20||0.17||-0.17||0.16||-0.08|
|3-Month Moving Average||-0.22||-0.18||-0.08||-0.14||--||--||--|
|Personal Consumption & Housing||-0.07||-0.11||-0.05||-0.06||-0.09||-0.11||-0.15|
|Employment, Unemployment & Hours||-0.02||-0.04||0.05||0.15||0.07||0.18||0.09|
|Production & Income||0.19||-0.39||-0.16||-0.03||-0.14||0.06||-0.04|
|Sales, Orders & Inventories||0.00||-0.01||-0.03||0.12||-0.02||0.04||0.02|