- US: Advance Trade & Inventories (Feb)
- Sweden: Retail Trade, PPI, International Trade (Feb); Iceland: CPI (Mar)
- Turkey: International Reserves (Feb); Mauritius: Wage Rate Index, LFS (Q4); Saudi Arabia: Non-Oil Foreign Trade (Jan); Palestine: BOP (Q4); UAE: Fuel Prices (Apr); Israel: Construction Starts & Completions (Q4); South Africa: Construction Survey (Q1); Tanzania: Trade (Q4)
- Brazil: PPI (Feb)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
Texas Factory Sector Activity Remains Strong
The Dallas Fed indicated in its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey that the General Business Activity Index eased during March...
EMU Money and Credit Growth Are Less Than Impressive Than Euro-PMIs
EMU nominal money supply growth is slightly higher over three months, but credit growth in the EMU is slower...
Durable Goods Orders Strengthened by Another Jump in Aircraft
New orders for durable goods rose 1.7% (5.0% y/y) during February...
Correction to Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims
The Department of Labor has issued a correction to yesterday's annual revision to seasonally adjusted weekly unemployment claims...
EMU PMIs Are Off to the Races...Farewell Mediocrity?
The PMI rankings for the manufacturing and service sector PMIs in the EMU are suddenly off the chart...
U.S. New Home Sales Improve While Prices Decline
Sales of new single-family homes increased 6.1% (12.8% y/y) during February to 592,000 units (AR)...
by Tom Moeller May 19, 2016
The Conference Board's Composite Index of Leading Economic Indicators increased 0.6% during April (1.9% y/y), following an unrevised 0.2% March gain. It was the largest increase since June, and beat expectations for a 0.3% rise in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The three-month change in the index improved to 2.3% (AR). A longer workweek, fewer initial claims for jobless insurance, more building permits, higher stock prices, a steeper interest rate yield curve and the leading credit index had the largest positive effects on the index. Weaker consumer expectations for business & economic conditions had the only negative contribution.
The coincident index increased 0.3% (1.8% y/y) after zero change. April's gain was the largest monthly in three months. Three-month growth improved to zero (AR) after being slightly negative. Nonfarm payrolls, personal income less transfers, manufacturing & trade sales and industrial production each contributed positively to the index.
The lagging index increased 0.3% (4.1% y/y) after an unrevised 0.4% gain. Three-month growth increased to 6.8%, its strongest in three years. More C&I loans, a longer duration of unemployment and a higher consumer installment debt/personal income ratio contributed positively to the index rise last month.
The ratio of coincident-to-lagging indicators also is a leading indicator of economic activity. It measures excesses in the economy relative to its ongoing performance. This ratio declined to the lowest level since 1975.
The Conference Board figures are available in Haver's BCI database; the components are available there, and most are also in USECON. The forecast figures for the Consensus are in the AS1REPNA database. Visit the Conference Board's site for coverage of leading indicator series from around the world.
How Did the Great Recession Affect Payday Loans? from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago is available here.
|Business Cycle Indicators (%)||Apr||Mar||Feb||Apr Y/Y||2015||2014||2013|