- Weekly: **Unemployment Initial Claims Data have been revised**
- US: Housing Starts by State and Region (Feb)
- CPB World Trade Monitor (Jan)
- CPB World Trade Monitor (Jan)
- France: Registered Unemployed & Job Vacancies (Feb)
- US: Household Employment for States and Regions (Feb)
- US: Wholesale Trade Revisions, Advance Durable Goods (Feb)
- Manufacturing Survey - Markit US (Flash - Mar), Composite Survey - US (Flash - Mar), Services Survey - US (Flash - Mar)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
Correction to Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims
The Department of Labor has issued a correction to yesterday's annual revision to seasonally adjusted weekly unemployment claims...
EMU PMIs Are Off to the Races...Farewell Mediocrity?
The PMI rankings for the manufacturing and service sector PMIs in the EMU are suddenly off the chart...
U.S. New Home Sales Improve While Prices Decline
Sales of new single-family homes increased 6.1% (12.8% y/y) during February to 592,000 units (AR)...
Kansas City Federal Reserve Factory Index Strengthens; Expectations Surge
The Kansas City Fed reported that its index of regional manufacturing sector business activity increased to 20 during March...
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Rise
Initial claims for unemployment insurance increased to 258,000 (-3.0% y/y) during the week ended March 18...
U.K. Retail Looks Less Bulletproof
For the most part, the assessments embodied in the March survey from the UK's CBI are being taken as being upbeat...
by Tom Moeller May 27, 2016
Real economic growth last quarter was somewhat firmer than first indicated. GDP grew 0.8% (SAAR, 2.0% y/y) after an initially reported 0.5% gain. Nevertheless, it remained the weakest quarterly rise in a year. A lessened drag on growth from inventory decumulation prompted most of the upward revision to growth. Nevertheless, the moderation in real economic growth during Q1 remained primarily due to weaker consumer spending and a decline in business investment. GDP's increase compared to expectations for a 0.9% rise in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The GDP price index increased at a slightly reduced 0.6% rate (1.2% y/y), its slowest rise in a year.
Reported for the first time, after tax corporate profits increased 1.9% without both inventory and depreciation allowances. Nevertheless, profits remained 3.6% lower than one year earlier due to declines in Q4 and Q3. Profits before tax without IVA & CCA increased 0.3% (-5.7% y/y). U.S. nonfinancial industry earnings increased 4.0% (-5.6% y/y), but financial industry profits eased 0.5% (+2.9% y/y). Profits earned abroad declined 9.9% (-14.0% y/y).
Inventory decumulation subtracted a lessened 0.2 percentage points from GDP growth, the third consecutive subtraction. Deterioration in the foreign trade accounts subtracted 0.2% percentage points from overall economic growth. That was reduced slightly from the advance report. Exports declined 2.0% (+0.4% y/y), the same as in Q4. Goods exports fell 2.6% (-0.7% y/y) while services exports eased 0.9% (+2.5% y/y). Imports edged 0.2% lower (+1.1% y/y). Goods imports fell 1.2% (+0.5% y/y), but services imports rose 3.8% (3.5% y/y) with more U.S. citizens traveling abroad.
Consumer spending growth of 1.9% last quarter was unrevised, and its weakest since Q1'15. Growth was held back by an 11.5% decline (-1.5% y/y) in motor vehicle & parts purchases as well as a 0.9% drop (+1.7% y/y) in apparel buying. To the upside was spending on recreational goods & vehicles, which rose 9.4% (10.3% y/y). Spending on home furnishings & appliances increased 3.8% (5.6% y/y) and gasoline buying rose 6.3% (2.1 % y/y). In the services area, spending growth remained fairly steady at 2.6% (2.5% y/y). It reflected a roughly constant 6.1% advance (6.0% y/y) in transportation, but a 1.9% increase (3.8% y/y) in restaurant & accommodations. This gain was down from 7.2% growth in Q2'15. Spending on housing & utilities grew 2.0% (0.1% y/y).
Business spending declined at a little-changed 6.2% rate, its second consecutive fall, held back by declining corporate profitability. Investment in structures fell 8.9% (-3.9% y/y). Equipment investment declined 9.0% (-0.4% y/y) while intellectual property product buying was little changed (+1.8% y/y). Continuing firm was residential investment which grew a strengthened 17.2% (11.1% y/y).
Spending by governments grew at an unchanged 1.2% rate. Federal spending declined 1.6% (+0.2% y/y), held back by a 3.6% decline (-0.5% y/y) in defense buying. State & local government purchases grew at an accelerated 2.9% rate (2.2% y/y).
Pricing behavior was constrained by economic weakness. The GDP price index growth of 0.6% was less than initially indicated and reflected a stable 0.3% rise (1.0% y/y) in the personal spending price index. Nondurable goods prices fell 5.6% (-1.2% y/y) with the decline in gasoline prices. Durable goods prices fell 1.1% (-1.3% y/y), but services prices rose an improved 2.5% (2.1% y/y). The nonresidential investment price index increased 0.2% both q/q and y/y. Residential investment prices gained 1.8% (1.4% y/y) while government sector prices were little changed (0.6% y/y).
The GDP figures can be found in Haver's USECON and USNA database. USNA contains virtually all of the Bureau of Economic Analysis' detail in the national accounts, including the integrated economic accounts and the recently added GDP data for U.S. Territories. The Action Economics consensus estimates can be found in AS1REPNA.
Recent Economic Developments, the Productive Potential of the Economy, and Monetary Policy is the title of yesterday's speech by Federal Reserve Governor Jerome H. Powell and it can be found here.
|Chained 2009 $ (%, AR)||Q1'16 (Second Estimate)||Q1'16 (Advance Estimate)||Q4'15||Q3'15||Q1'16 Y/Y||2015||2014||2013|
|Gross Domestic Product||0.8||0.5||1.4||2.0||2.0||2.4||2.4||1.5|
|Foreign Trade Effect||-0.2||-0.3||-0.1||-0.3||-0.1||-0.6||-0.1||0.2|
|Domestic Final Sales||1.2||1.2||1.7||2.9||2.4||2.8||2.8||1.2|
|Personal Consumption Expenditures||1.9||1.9||2.4||3.0||2.7||3.1||2.7||1.7|
|Business Fixed Investment||-6.2||-5.9||-2.1||2.6||-0.5||2.9||6.2||3.0|
|Chain-Type Price Index|
|Personal Consumption Expenditures||0.3||0.3||0.3||1.3||1.0||0.3||1.4||1.4|