- New Zealand: International Trade (Feb)
- Korea: Consumer Survey Index (Mar); Philippines: Public Finance (Jan)
- Weekly: **Initial Claims Data Revisions Completed**
- Euro area: Flash Consumer Confidence Indicator (Mar)
- US: New Residential Sales (Feb)
- Belgium: Business Survey (Mar)
- Uruguay: GDP (Q4)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
Kansas City Federal Reserve Factory Index Strengthens; Expectations Surge
The Kansas City Fed reported that its index of regional manufacturing sector business activity increased to 20 during March...
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Rise
Initial claims for unemployment insurance increased to 258,000 (-3.0% y/y) during the week ended March 18...
U.K. Retail Looks Less Bulletproof
For the most part, the assessments embodied in the March survey from the UK's CBI are being taken as being upbeat...
U.S. Existing Home Sales Fall to Five-Month Low; Inventory Remains Tight
Sales of existing single-family homes declined 3.7% (+5.4% y/y) to 5.480 million units (AR) during February...
U.S. FHFA House Price Index Momentum Diminishes
The FHFA U.S. house price index remained unchanged during January following a 0.4% December increase ...
Japan's Trade Trends Turn Sharply Higher
Japan has logged its largest current account surplus since April 2010...
by Tom Moeller May 31, 2016
Chicago purchasing managers reported that their Business Barometer Index fell to 49.3 this month following a decline to 50.4 in April. The latest reading disappointed expectations for 50.5 in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The figure has moved erratically sideways since early last year.
Haver Analytics constructs an ISM-Adjusted Index using the Chicago numbers, comparable to the overall ISM index to be released tomorrow. Our figure fell to 48.0, and also has been moving sideways for a year. During the last ten years, there has been a 61% correlation between the adjusted Chicago Purchasing Managers index and real GDP growth.
Declines in the component series were wide spread. The production series fell to 47.4, its lowest level in three months, while new orders were off to 48.8, its lowest level this year. The inventory index, at 37.9, indicated the fastest speed of decumulation since November 2009. The supplier delivery index held steady at 57.8, suggesting the slowest delivery speeds since October 2014.
The employment figure increased to 48.3, but made up just a piece of its April decline. It remained below the 2014 highs. During the last ten years, there has been an 81% correlation between the employment figure and the m/m change in factory sector employment.
The prices paid reading eased to 56.5 following a jump in April to 56.9, the highest level since November 2014. An increased 24% (NSA) of respondents reported paying higher prices while a notably lessened 4% paid less.
The MNI Chicago Report is produced by MNI/Deutsche Borse Group in partnership with ISM-Chicago. The survey covers a sample of over 200 purchasing professionals in the Chicago area with a monthly response rate of about 50%. The ISM-Adjusted headline index is calculated by Haver Analytics using these data to construct a figure with the ISM methodology. The figures can be found in Haver's SURVEYS database. The Consensus expectations figure is available in AS1REPNA.
|Chicago Purchasing Managers Index (%, SA)||May||Apr||Mar||May '15||2015||2014||2013|
|ISM-Adjusted General Business Barometer||48.0||52.0||50.8||50.4||51.6||59.3||54.2|
|General Business Barometer||49.3||50.4||53.6||48.7||50.3||60.7||56.0|