- Japan: **Japan Tokyo employment index rebased to 2015=100**
- Saudi Arabia: Non-Oil Foreign Trade (Feb); Kuwait: CPI (Mar); Tanzania: BOP, Trade, Depository Corporations Survey, Public Finance (Feb)
- Portugal: OMFIs Balance Sheet (Feb)
- Luxembourg: Employment and Unemployment (Mar)
- Kazakhstan: GDP by Income, Labor Productivity Index (Q4), Loans and Deposits, Monetary Aggregates, Banking System Surveys, Public Finance (Mar)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
Fresh Six-Year PMI Highs for Euro Area
The 'fresh six-year high' is a pleasant surprise that continues, but...
Philadelphia Fed Factory Conditions Soften
The Philadelphia Fed reported that its General Factory Sector Business Conditions Index fell to 22.0 during April...
U.S. Leading Economic Indicators Suggest Continued Expansion
The Conference Board's Composite Index of Leading Economic Indicators increased 0.4% (3.5% y/y) during March...
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Applications Increase
Initial unemployment claims for unemployment insurance rose to 244,000 during the week ended April 15 (-5.1% y/y)...
Japan's 'Trade Trends' Stabilize on an Unstable Foundation
Japan trade trends, broadly considered, seem to be stabilizing...
U.S. Mortgage Loan Applications Fall
The MBA total Mortgage Applications Volume Index declined 1.8% last week (-24.9% y/y)...
by Tom Moeller June 1, 2016
The ISM Composite Index of manufacturing activity increased slightly to 51.3 during May following an unrevised April decline to 50.8. The index has hovered near the break-even level of 50 for four months, but last month beat expectations for 50.4 in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The data from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) are diffusion indexes where a reading above 50 indicates an increase in activity. During the last ten years, there has been a 74% correlation between the level of the ISM index and the q/q changed in real GDP.
Deterioration in the production component to 52.6, its lowest level since January. This was offset by a rise in the supplier deliveries index to 54.1, the slowest product delivery speed since December 2014. Elsewhere, the component series were little changed m/m. The new orders index of 55.7 showed roughly the same m/m expansion of order books and the inventory reading of 45.0 showed decumulation for the eleventh straight month. The steady employment series of 49.2 suggested continued hiring declines, but at a rate slower than in January. During the last ten years, there has been an 88% correlation between the figure and the m/m change in factory sector payrolls.
The prices paid index continued its recent improvement with a rise to 63.5, the highest level since June 2011. Thirty-four percent of industries reported higher prices while 7% reported that prices fell.
Other component series, not included in the composite reading, showed mixed performance. The export figure held steady at 52.5, the highest level since November 2014. The imports index also held at 50, also up significantly from the December low of 45.5. The order backlog index declined to 47.0, the lowest level since January.
The figures from the Institute for Supply Management can be found in Haver's USECON database. The expectations number is in Haver's AS1REPNA database.
The Fed's latest Beige Book covering regional economic conditions can be found here.
|ISM Mfg (SA)||May||Apr||Mar||May '15||2015||2014||2013|
|Prices Paid Index (NSA)||63.5||59.0||51.5||49.5||39.8||55.6||53.8|