- New Zealand: International Trade (Feb)
- Korea: Consumer Survey Index (Mar); Philippines: Public Finance (Jan)
- Weekly: **Initial Claims Data Revisions Completed**
- Euro area: Flash Consumer Confidence Indicator (Mar)
- US: New Residential Sales (Feb)
- Belgium: Business Survey (Mar)
- Uruguay: GDP (Q4)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
Kansas City Federal Reserve Factory Index Strengthens; Expectations Surge
The Kansas City Fed reported that its index of regional manufacturing sector business activity increased to 20 during March...
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Rise
Initial claims for unemployment insurance increased to 258,000 (-3.0% y/y) during the week ended March 18...
U.K. Retail Looks Less Bulletproof
For the most part, the assessments embodied in the March survey from the UK's CBI are being taken as being upbeat...
U.S. Existing Home Sales Fall to Five-Month Low; Inventory Remains Tight
Sales of existing single-family homes declined 3.7% (+5.4% y/y) to 5.480 million units (AR) during February...
U.S. FHFA House Price Index Momentum Diminishes
The FHFA U.S. house price index remained unchanged during January following a 0.4% December increase ...
Japan's Trade Trends Turn Sharply Higher
Japan has logged its largest current account surplus since April 2010...
by Tom Moeller June 2, 2016
The ADP/Moody's National Employment Report indicated that nonfarm private sector payrolls rose 173,000 during May following a 166,000 April rise, revised from 156,000. These gains compare to an average of 200,000 during Q1'16 and 219,000 in Q4'15. The peak quarterly increase occurred in Q2'15 at 230,000. The latest roughly matched expectations for a 170,000 rise in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. During the last ten years, there has been a 96% correlation between the change in the ADP figure and the change in nonfarm private sector payrolls as measured by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
The ADP Research Institute survey is based on ADP's business payroll transaction system covering 411,000 companies and nearly 24 million employees. The data are processed by Moody's Analytics Inc., then calibrated and aligned with the BLS establishment survey data. The ADP data cover private sector employment only.
Small-sized businesses led last month's hiring slowdown with a 76,000 rise (2.0% y/y) after a 101,000 gain. These increases were down from the high of 123,000 averaged in Q2'15. A 63,000 increase (1.8% y/y) in hiring of medium-sized businesses was better than the 39,000 April increase, but was less than the 105,000 averaged in Q4'14. Large-sized businesses posted a 34,000 increase in jobs after a 25,000 rise, but these gains compare to 67,000 averaged in Q4'15.
Service-producing payrolls increased 175,000 after a 173,000 rise. In Q2'15 growth averaged 221,000 per month. Professional & business payrolls rose a diminished 43,000, down from 65,000 in Q2'15. Trade, transportation & utilities growth also slowed to 28,000 from a 59,000 high, but financial activities growth was fairly stable at 13,000.
Goods-producing jobs declined 1,000 after a 7,000 drop. The peak for growth came in Q4'15 with a 16,000 average monthly increase. The construction industry added 13,000 jobs after a 14,000 increase, both below last quarter's average of 23,000. Hiring in the factory sector declined 3,000, down for the fourth straight month.
The ADP National Employment Report data are maintained in Haver's USECON database; historical figures date back to April 2001 for the total and industry breakdown, and back to January 2005 for the business size breakout. The expectation figure is available in Haver's AS1REPNA database.
|ADP/Moody's National Employment Report||May||Apr||Mar||May Y/Y||2015||2014||2013|
|Nonfarm Private Payroll Employment (m/m chg, 000s)||173||166||201||2.0%||2.3%||2.2%||1.9%|
|Small Payroll (1-49)||76||101||93||2.0||2.6||2.1||1.9|
|Medium Payroll (50-499)||63||39||68||1.8||2.3||2.8||2.2|
|Large Payroll (>500)||34||25||40||2.4||1.7||1.6||1.5|